{"collection":"folklore-oral-tradition","full_text_available":true,"graph_url":"https://unchartedknowledge.5gfusion.net/v2/api/page/gutenberg_24163/graph","html_url":"https://unchartedknowledge.5gfusion.net/v2/page/gutenberg_24163","id":"gutenberg_24163","license":"Public Domain (US)","rights_basis":"gutenberg_metadata_copyright_false","source":"gutenberg","source_url":"https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/24163","summary":null,"tags":["Category: How To ...","Category: Nature/Gardening/Animals","Category: Science - Earth/Agricultural/Farming","Weather -- Folklore","Weather forecasting"],"text":"Produced by Robin Monks, The Internet Archive and the\nOnline Distributed Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net\n(This book was produced from scanned images of public\ndomain material from the Google Print project.)\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTHE\n\nSHEPHERD\n\nOF\n\nBANBURY'S RULES\n\nTo judge of the\n\nCHANGES of the WEATHER,\n\nGrounded on Forty Years' EXPERIENCE;\n\nBy which you may know\n\nThe WEATHER for several Days to come,\nand in some Cases for Months.\n\nTo which is added\n\nA Rational ACCOUNT of the CAUSES of\nsuch Alterations, the Nature of Wind,\nRain, Snow, &c.\n\n\n\nBy _JOHN CLARIDGE_, Shepherd.\n\n\n\nA NEW EDITION, Corrected.\n\n\n_L O N D O N_:\nPrinted for\nTHOMAS HURST, EDWARD CHANCE, & Co.,\n65, _St. Paul's Church-Yard._\n1827.\n\nJ. M'Creery, Tooks Court,\nChancery Lane, London.\n\n\n\n\nINTRODUCTION.\n\n\nAS we very justly esteem it a fit Tribute of Admiration to adorn\nnatural Curiosities, by setting them as richly and as advantageously as\nart can direct, so the following Observations of the Shepherd of\n_Banbury_ have appeared to me worthy of being presented to the Eye of\nthe Public, with all the Lustre that it was in my Power to give them.\nIt is one thing to observe, and another to reason upon Observations,\nand it very rarely happens that both can be taken into the Compass of\none Man's Life. We ought therefore to consider it as a very lucky\nIncident, when the Observations of another Man, upon whom we can\ndepend, fall into our Hands, and enable us to add natural Experience to\nthe Notions derived to us from Books of Philosophy.\n\nTHERE is a Degree of Pedantry in Desarts as well as Colleges. Men who\nderive their Knowledge entirely from Experience are apt to despise what\nthey call Book Learning, and Men of great Reading are as apt to fall\ninto a less excusable mistake, that of taking the Knowledge of Words\nfor the Knowledge of Things; whereas there are not any two points more\nopposite in Nature, since we very rarely see, that either true Scholars\nare talkative, or that talkative Men are true Scholars.\n\nTHE Shepherd, whose sole Business it is to observe what has a Reference\nto the Flock under his Care, who spends all his Days and many of his\nNights in the open Air, and under the wide spread Canopy of Heaven, is\nin a Manner obliged to take particular Notice of the Alterations of the\nWeather, and when once he comes to take a Pleasure in making such\nObservations, it is amazing how great a Progress he makes in them, and\nto how great a Certainty at last he arrives by mere dint of comparing\nSigns and Events, and correcting one Remark by another. Every thing in\nTime becomes to him a Sort of Weather-Gage. The Sun, the Moon, the\nStars, the Clouds, the Winds, the Mists, the Trees, the Flowers, the\nHerbs, and almost every Animal with which he is acquainted. All these I\nsay become to such a person Instruments of real Knowledge.\n\nTHERE are a Sort of half wise People, who from the Consideration of the\nDistances of Things, are apt to treat such Prognostications, as they\nphrase them, with much Contempt. They can see no Connexion between a\nCat's washing her Face, and the Sky's being overspread with Clouds, and\ntherefore they boldly pronounce that the one has no Relation to the\nother. Yet the same People will readily own that the fluttering of the\nFlame of a Candle is a certain token of Wind, which however is not\ndiscernible by their Feeling; because it lies within the Compass of\ntheir Understanding to discern that this Fluctuation of the Flame is\ncaused by the Wind acting upon it, and therefore they are inclined to\nbelieve this, though it does not fall actually under the Cognizance of\ntheir Senses. But a Man of a larger Compass of Knowledge, who is\nacquainted with the Nature and Qualities of the Air, and knows what an\nEffect any Alterations in the Weight, the Dryness, or the Humidity of\nit has upon all animal Bodies, easily perceives the Reason why other\nAnimals are much sooner sensible of any Alterations that happen in that\nElement than Men, and therefore to him the cawing of Ravens, the\nchattering of Swallows, and a Cat's washing her Face are not\nsuperstitious Signs, but natural tokens (like that of the Candle's\nfluttering) of a Change of Weather, and as such they have been thought\nworthy of Notice by _Aristotle_, _Virgil_, _Pliny_, and all the wisest\nand gravest Writers of Antiquity.\n\nBUT still a few slight and trivial Observations of this Kind, and such\nas are in the Power of every Man to make, go but a very little Way in\nfurnishing us with a useful Knowledge of the Indications of the\nWeather. To supply these, and to have constantly at Hand the Means of\njudging of these Alterations, Men of great Genius have invented, and\nwonderful Inventions they are! Instruments for measuring the Heat, the\nCold, the Weight, the Dryness, and the Humidity of the Air, with great\nExactness, and upon these they reason as to the changes of Weather with\ngreat Accuracy and Certainty. It would undoubtedly be a great Folly to\npretend to question either the Truth of their Observations, or the\nUsefulness of them: but then we may have leave to consider how far, and\nto how great a Degree they are useful. The Thermometer measures exactly\nthe Degrees of Heat, but the Air must be hot to such or such a Degree\nbefore it is discerned by this Instrument. The barometer indicates the\nWeight of the Air, and the rising and falling of the Quicksilver\nexpresses the Alterations in its Weight with wonderful Nicety, but then\nthose Alterations are the Cause of this. In like manner the Hygrometer,\nor Hygroscope, measures the Dryness or the Humidity of the Air very\nplainly and very exactly, but the Weather must alter, must become dryer\nor moister than it was, before these Alterations are visible; and\ntherefore, however ingenious, however curious, however useful these\nInstruments may be in other Respects, they undoubtedly contribute very\nlittle to the prognosticating a Change of Weather at a Distance; and it\nis from the Experience of this, that they are so little esteemed, so\nlightly regarded by the common People.\n\nOUR Shepherd's Observations are of quite another Nature, most of them\ngive us a Day's Notice, many a Week's, and some extend to several\nMonths' Prognostication of the Changes of the Weather, and of how great\nUse these may be to all Ranks and Degrees of People, to the sedentary\nValetudinarian, as well as the active Traveller, to the Sportsman who\npursues his Game, as well as to the industrious Husbandman who\nconstantly follows his Labour; in short, to every Man in every\nSituation in some Degree or other, is so very clear and intelligible,\nthat it would, be a mere waste of Words, and a very idle display of\nRhetoric, to attempt the making it clearer. Every Man living would be\nglad to foresee the Alterations of Weather if he could, and\nconsequently to most People, if not to all, these Observations,\ngrounded on no less than forty Years' Experience, cannot but be\nacceptable.\n\nTO make the best use of one's Talent, and to employ the Lights derived\nfrom the Station in which Providence has placed one for the Benefit of\nMankind, is undoubtedly discharging one's Duty, answering the End of\nour Creation, and corresponding with the OEconomy of Nature, which\ndoes nothing in vain. This Proposition is equally true, let a Man's\nStation be what it will. It is the Manner in which we perform, and not\nthe Character, that makes the Player, and in this Sense what Man is not\na Player? Here then is an Instance of one who has for many Years\nstudied his Part, and now communicates his Discoveries freely. In a\nPhysician, in a Philosopher, in a Mathematician, this would be highly\ncommendable, and why not in a Shepherd? We do not cast our own Parts in\nthe Drama of Life; no, this is performed by the great Author of Nature.\nHe who adjusted every Thing on Earth with such Beauty and Harmony, he\nwho taught the Heavenly Bodies to move; the same distributed their\nseveral Offices to Men. May we not therefore suppose that every Man's\nPart is well cast, and that our Abilities are exactly proportioned to\nour Stations? If so, he who does all he can, does all that ought to be\nexpected from him, and merits from impartial Judges the most general\nand just Applause. To be convinced of this, we need not only reflect on\nthe narrow and selfish Conduct of some, who either by Study or by\nChance, have acquired certain valuable Secrets, which with the utmost\nIndustry they conceal in order to be the more admired, or that they may\nrender them beneficial to themselves. How contrary the Conduct of our\nShepherd! His Pains were all his own, but the Fruit of them he thus\ngenerously offers to the Public. Good Sense and the dictates of Nature\ntaught him this Maxim, _That what might benefit_ many, _should not be\nconcealed by_ one _from Views of_ Profit _or of_ Pride.\n\nIN my Remarks upon the Shepherd's Rules, I have sometimes endeavoured\nto support them by Authorities, which I must confess would have been of\nlittle Use if the Author had been a Person of Learning; but when it is\nconsidered that these Observations were purely the Effect of his own\nAttention and Experience, it certainly strengthens them, and adds\ngreatly to their Credit that they have been esteemed evident Signs of\nthe same Effects, by the greatest Masters in this Kind of Science. The\nArt of prognosticating the Weather may be considered as a Kind of\ndecyphering, and in that Art it is always allowed a point of great\nConsequence, when several Masters therein agree as to the meaning of a\nCharacter, and it is from thence very justly presumed that this\nCharacter is rightly decyphered.\n\nI have also endeavoured to explain most of his Observations, according\nto the Rules of the new Philosophy, which, as it is grounded upon.\nExperiments, so it generally speaking enables us to give a fair and\nrational Account of almost all the Phaenomena taken notice of by the\nShepherd of _Banbury_.\n\nI likewise have added some other Rules in Relation to the Weather,\ntaken from the common sayings of our Country People, and from old\n_English_ Books of Husbandry, but I have distinguished all these from\nthe Observations themselves, so that the Reader will have no Trouble to\ndiscern the Text from the Commentary, or to know what belongs to the\nShepherd of _Banbury_, and what to the Editor of his Observations. This\nI think may serve by the Way of Introduction, let us now proceed to the\nRules themselves.\n\n\n\n\nTHE\n\n_Country Calendar_,\n\nOR THE\n\nSHEPHERD OF BANBURY's\n\nOBSERVATIONS.\n\n\nI.\n\nSUN. _If the Sun rise red and firey._ } Wind and Rain.\n\nTHE Reason of this Appearance is, because the Sun shines through a\nlarge Mass of Vapours, which occasions that red Colour that has been\nalways esteemed a Sign of Rain, especially if the Face of the Sun\nappear bigger than it ought, for then in a few Hours the Clouds will\ngrow black, and be condensed into Rain, sudden and sharp, if in the\nSummer, but settled and moderate if in Winter.\n\nTHE old _English_ Rule published in our first Almanacks agrees exactly\nwith our Author's Observation.\n\n    If red the Sun begins his Race,\n    Be sure that Rain will fall apace.\n\nIF the Reader would see this elegantly described, the Master of Poets\nhath it thus.[_a_]\n\n    Above the Rest, the Sun, who never lies,\n    Foretels the Change of Weather in the Skies;\n    For if he rise unwilling to his Race,\n    Clouds on his Brow, and Spots upon his Face,\n    Or if thro' Mists he shoots his sullen Beams,\n    Frugal of light, in loose and straggling Streams,\n    Suspect a drizzling Day and southern Rain,\n    Fatal to Fruits and Flocks, and promis'd Grain.\n\n      [Footnote _a_:\n\n      Sol quoque & exoriens, & cum se condit in undas,\n      _Signa_ dabit: _Solem_ certissima signa sequuntur,\n      Et quae Mane refert, & quae surgentibus _Astris_,\n      Ille ubi nascentem _maculis_ variaverit Ortum\n      Concavus in Nubem, medioque refugerit Orbe;\n      Suspecti tibi sint _Imbres_. Namque urget ab alto\n      Arboribusque satisque Notus Pecorique sinister.\n\n                              Virgil. Georgic. lib. i. v. 438.]\n\n\nII.\n\n_If cloudy, and it soon decrease._ } Certain fair Weather.\n\nI Conceive the Reason of this to be, that the Vapours being then\nspecifically lighter than the Air, are still rising upwards, in which\nthey are assisted by the Heat of the Sun Beams, agreeable to the Notion\nof Dr. _Derham_, who observes, that after much cloudy Weather, it is\nalways fair before it rains, because the watery Vapours are not\ncondensed till they reach the cold upper Region, agreeable to the\ncommon _English_ saying,\n\n    The Evening red, and Morning grey,\n    Is a Sign of a fair Day.\n\nIT is also an Observation, of _Pliny's_ in his natural History.[_b_]\n\n      [Footnote _b_: Nat. Hist. lib. xviii. cap. 35.]\n\nSI ab ortu solis repellentur Nubes, & ad occasum abibunt, _Serenitatem_\ndenunciabunt,\n\n                               That is,\n\nIF at Sun rising the Clouds are driven away, and retire as it were to\nthe _West_, this denotes fair Weather.\n\nTHERE is an old Adage to this Purpose, which, because it is very\nprettily expressed, deserves our notice, _viz._\n\n    A red Evening and a grey Morning,\n    Sets the Pilgrim a Walking.\n\n                          In _French_ thus.\n\n    Le rogue Soir, & blanc Matin;\n    Font rejouvir le Pelerin.\n\n                     The _Italians_ say the same.\n\n    Sera rosa, & nigro Matino;\n    Allegra il Peregrino.\n\n\nIII.\n\nCLOUDS _Small and round, like a   }\nDappley-grey, with a_ North-Wind. } Fair Weather for 2 or 3 Days.\n\nTHIS is differently expressed by other Authors. My Lord _Bacon_ tells\nus, that if Clouds appear white, and drive to the _N. W._ it is a Sign\nof several Days fair Weather.\n\nOUR old _English_ Almanacks have a Maxim to this Purpose.\n\n    If woolly Fleeces spread the Heavenly Way,\n    Be sure no Rain disturbs the Summer Day.\n\nAND _Pliny_ to the same Purpose.[_c_]\n\n      [Footnote _c_: Ubi supra.]\n\nSI Sol oriens cingetur Orbe, & postea totus defluxerit aequaliter,\n_Serenitatem_ dabit.\n\n                               That is,\n\nIF the rising Sun be incompassed with an Iris, or Circle of white\nClouds, and they equally fly away, this is a Sign of fair Weather.\n\nTHERE is another _English_ Proverb worth remembering.\n\n    In the Decay of the Moon,\n    A cloudy Morning bodes a fair Afternoon.\n\n\nIV.\n\n_Large like Rocks._----Great Showers.\n\nIN the old Almanacks we have this Sign of the Weather thus expressed.\n\n    When Clouds appear like Rocks and Towers,\n    The Earth's refresh'd by frequent Showers.\n\nTHE Reason of this seems to be, that the watery Vapours are then\ncondensed, or condensing, which gives them this rough and ragged\nAppearance, and as soon as the thin Films that retain the Water are\nbroke by this Pressure, these heavy Clouds descend in Rain.\n\nTHESE Observations, as well as some that follow, are agreeable to all\nClimates, which is the Reason that they appear in so many different\nAuthors, and have been taken notice of in so many Ages. This however\ndoes not at all diminish the Credit, or the Merit of our Shepherd's\nObservations, who certainly drew them not from Books, but from his own\nExperience, and therefore their agreeing so well with the Rules of\nother great Masters, ought to establish his Authority in such Cases as\nare not supported by alike concurrence from ancient or modern Writers,\nthe Testimony of Nature is always sufficient Evidence.\n\n\nV.\n\n_If small Clouds increase_----Much Rain.\n\nTHIS and the following Observation cannot well be understood, without\ngiving some Account of Clouds in general. The Atmosphere is supposed to\nextend itself about five Miles round this Globe of Earth, and within\nthat Space move all kind of Vapours exhaled by the Sun's Force, or\nprotruded by the subterraneous Heat. The ascending of these Vapours\ninto the Air, depends upon many things, and therefore as different as\nits Causes; for instance, their ascent depends in the first place on\nthe degree of Heat with which they are drawn up or forced out; next\nupon the Lightness of the Vapours themselves; thirdly, on the Density\nor Rarity of the Air through which they pass; and lastly, on the Force\nand Direction of the Winds, which they encounter in their Passage.\n\nACCORDING to the Nature of these Vapours, and the Circumstance\nattending their Passage, they appear to us differently below. For if\nthey be extremely subtile they mount very high, and there, according to\nthe Sentiment of Sir _Isaac Newton_, form by Refraction the Azure, or\nblue Colour, that over-spreads the Sky in serene Weather. Clouds, while\nthey remain visible, do not rise above the Height of a Mile; and we\nalways observe, that the highest are of a very light Colour, and hardly\nseen. If, therefore, small Clouds increase, it shews, that the\nDisposition of the Air is such, as that these Clouds cannot rise\ntherein, either from their own Weight, the want of a protrusive Force,\nor from the falling of the Wind, which in cloudy Weather is always a\nSign of Rain.\n\n\nVI.\n\n_If large Clouds decrease_----Fair Weather.\n\nTHE same kind of Reasoning accounts very clearly for this Prognostick,\nsince it shews, that the Vapours are either exhaled by the Sun's Heat,\nor are driven off by Winds, and so resolved into smaller Clouds,\ncapable of ascending higher in the Atmosphere; all which are\nCircumstances that secure us from Rain, and afford us a certainty of\nfair Weather.\n\nIT is, however, to be observed, that large black Clouds are frequently,\nin a Summer Evening, melted into Dews; and this much more frequently\nhappens in the Autumn, because the Evenings are then cooler, and the\nVapours more easily condensed for that Reason. In all Observations of\nthis Sort, there is a great degree of Prudence and good Sense required\nto apply them, and hence it very frequently happens that such\nObservations are condemned as treacherous and abusive, merely because\nthose who would employ them want the Sagacity which is requisite to\nunderstand them clearly.\n\n\nVII.\n\nMISTS. _If they rise in low Ground and soon vanish._ } Fair Weather.\n\nTHIS is a sure Sign and very well expressed, that is, clearly, and, in\nfew Words, which is the Excellency of such Aphorisms. In order to be\nconvinced of its good Sense and Certainty, we must consider a little\nwhat _Mists_ are, whence they rise, and what becomes of them.\n\nMISTS are, strictly speaking, uncompacted Exhalations, which while they\nfleet near the Earth are styled _Mists_, but when they ascend into the\nAir, are called _Clouds_. If therefore, rising out of low Ground, they\nare driven along the Plain, and are soon lost to the Sight, it must\narise from some of these Causes. That there is an Air abroad sufficient\nto divide and resolve them, or the Heat of the Sun has been strong\nenough to exhale them, that is, to rarify them, so as to render them\nlighter than the Air through which they were to pass. Whichever way\nthis happens the Maxim remains unimpeached.\n\n\nVIII.\n\n_If they rise to the Hill-tops._ } Rain in a Day or two.\n\nWHEN Mists are very, heavy in themselves, and rise only by the Action\nof that protrusive Force, exerted by the subterranean Fire, they can\nrise no higher than where the Gravitation becomes superior to that\nprotrusive force, for then they descend again by their own Weight, and\nthis occasions the Appearance mentioned in the Observation of their\nhanging upon Hill-tops, where they are very soon condensed, and fall\ndown in Rain.\n\nTHERE was formerly a very idle and ill grounded Distinction between\nmoist and dry Exhalations, whereas in Truth all Exhalations are moist,\nor in other Words are watery Steams thrown off by Bodies respectively\ndry, and the former Distinction was invented only to solve these\nPhaenomena of which we have been speaking, that is, the Mist rising and,\ndispersing without Rain, and the Mist condensed and resolved into Rain,\nwhich as I have shewn may be much better explained without any such\nDistinction.\n\n\nIX.\n\n_A general Mist before the Sun }\nrises, near the full Moon._    } Fair Weather.\n\nTHIS is a general and a very extensive Observation, which enables us to\njudge of the Weather for about a Fortnight, and there is very great\nReason to believe that it will very rarely deceive us. In order to\nconvince the Reader of this, it will be necessary to explain, as far as\nwe are able, the Causes of this.\n\nMISTS are observed to happen when the Mercury in a Barometer is either\nvery low of very high. They happen when it is high after the Region of\nthe Air has continued calm a good while, and in the mean time a great\nAbundance of Vapours and Exhalations have been accumulated, making the\nAir dark by their quantity, and the disorderly Disposition of their\nparts. They happen when the Mercury is low, sometimes because the\nRarity of the Air renders it unable to sustain the Vapours, which\ntherefore descend and fall through it.\n\nBUT none of these Cases agree with the Observation at the Head of the\nPage, and therefore to form a true judgment of the Weather, we must\ndistinguish between them and the Case which explains the Observation.\n\n\nX.\n\n_If in the new Moon._----Rain in the old.\n\nWHEN Exhalations rise copiously from the Earth into the Region of the\nAir, and the Air itself is in a proper Disposition, they ascend to a\ngreat Height, and continue a long Time before they are condensed, which\naccounts very clearly and philosophically for the Interval of fair\nWeather between the rising of these Mists, and their falling down again\nin Showers. Their ascending about Sun-rise is a Proof that the Air is\nthin, but at the same time of a Force sufficient to sustain them, since\nif the Mists were not specifically lighter than the Air itself they\ncould not ascend.\n\nWHEN the Moon is at the full, and such Exhalations rise plentifully,\nthe time necessary for them to float in the Atmosphere, before they are\ncondensed into Clouds and Rain, extends, generally speaking, beyond the\nPeriod of that Moon, and therefore the Observation directs us to expect\n_fair Weather_.\n\n\nXI.\n\n_If in the old._----Rain in the New.\n\nBUT as it is observed not only in this Climate, but all the World over,\nthat great Changes of Weather happen near the Change of the Moon, it\nfollows that this is the Season when these Exhalations that ascend so\nplentifully at Sun-rising are condensed, and consequently is the Season\nwhen we ought to expect _Rain_.\n\nIF therefore the Exhalations rise in the new Moon, it is a Sign that\nthe Air is in a fit disposition to sustain and support them for a\nconsiderable Time, and therefore we have Reason to expect that they\nshould continue floating till the next regular change of Weather, that\nis, till the old of the Moon, or rather till towards the next Change,\nand therefore the Observation is very cautiously and very properly\nworded, directing us to expect Rain _in_ the old, and _in_ the new, and\nnot _at_ the old or new, because it is observed that these Changes of\nWeather happen not exactly _at_ the Change of the Moon, but a Day or\ntwo before or after, of which the Reader will meet with many Examples\nin Captain _Dampier's_ History of Winds and Storms at Sea.\n\n\nXII.\n\nWINDS. _Observe, that in eight Years' Time there is as much South\n       West Wind, as North East, and consequently as many wet Years\n       as dry._\n\nTHIS must be allowed a very extraordinary Aphorism from a Country\nShepherd, but at the same Time it is very agreeable to the Observations\nof Dr. _Hooke_, Dr. _Derham_, Dr. _Grew_, and other able Naturalists,\nwho with unwearied Pains and Diligence have calculated the Quantity of\nRain falling in one Year, and compared it with what fell in another.\nLord _Bacon_, that Honour to our Nation and the Age which produced him,\ninforms us, that it was an old Opinion there was a total Revolution of\nthe Weather once in forty Years, and wishes it was inquired into. I\ncannot tell whether this has ever been done or not, but I think there\nis good Reason to conclude that there is a natural Balance established\nof wet and dry Weather, as of Light and Darkness, Heat and Cold, and\nother such like Variations.\n\nIT may not be amiss to caution the Reader against a Mistake into which\nthe Manner of this Rule being stated may easily lead him. It is this,\nthat South West Winds cause Rain, and North East Winds fair Weather,\nwhich however is not a Thing clear or certain by any means. This indeed\nis true, that South West Winds and Rain, North East Winds and fair\nWeather come together, generally speaking. But the Question is, which\ncauses the other, and a more difficult Question cannot easily be\nstated, because there seems to be Facts on both sides. South West Winds\nseldom continue long without Rain, this seems to prove the affirmative,\nbut on the other Hand, when in hard Weather, Rain begins to fall, the\nWind commonly veers to the South West, this looks as if the Rain caused\nthe Wind.\n\nBUT to keep close to the Shepherd's Observation. There is one Thing\nseems strongly to confirm it, which is this, that in any given Place\nthe Quantity of Rain one Year with another is found to be the same by\nExperience, according to which the following Table has been calculated,\nfor the mean Quantity of Rain falling one Year with another in those\nPlaces that are mentioned, and on this Proportion the other seems to be\nfounded.\n\n    At Harlem      24 Inches\n       Delf        27\n       Dort        40\n       Middleburg  33\n       Paris       20\n       Lyons       37\n       Rome        20\n       Padua       37-1/2\n       Pisa        34-1/4\n       Ulm         27\n       Berlin      19-1/2\n    In Lancashire  40\n       Essex       19-1/2\n\n\nXIII.\n\n_When the Wind turns to North East, and it continues two Days\nwithout Rain, and does not turn South the third Day, nor Rain the\nthird Day, it is likely to continue North East for eight or nine\nDays_, all fair; _and then to come to the South again_.\n\nIN my Opinion this and the subsequent Remarks depend entirely upon\nObservations, and may serve rather to found an Hypothesis, than seem be\ndeduced from one. That the Variations of the Wind depend on certain\nCauses, and may consequently be reduced to Rules, is highly probable,\nand such Observations as these render it in a manner certain. But to\nexplore these Causes, and to explain them in such a manner as to\naccount for these Phaenomena in a satisfactory manner, requires not only\ngreat Sagacity but much Experience, and many Years' Observation, which,\nhowever, considering the great Benefits that would result to Mankind\nfrom establishing such a THEORY, would be Time well bestowed.\n\nWE may however easily conceive that a constant North East Wind must be\naccompanied with fair Weather. For whatever the causes of Winds may be,\nyet on this side the Equator, a strong and settled North East always\nbuoys up the Clouds and keeps them suspended. This has been long\nobserved by, and passes for a settled point amongst Seamen. The Reason\nof it however cannot be so easily assigned, at least a satisfactory\nReason, for as to Suppositions, every fanciful Man can furnish them at\nPleasure.\n\nTHIS, as well as the following Observations, very plainly and clearly\nprove, that in this Part of the World fair Weather attends one Wind,\nand wet another, but which is the Cause and which the Effect, or\nwhether both are not the Effects of some other Cause, I pretend not\nabsolutely to determine. But inasmuch as it is certainly known, that\nRains attend in other Climates those Winds that are here attended with\nfair Weather, it seems more agreeable to suppose that rainy Weather is\noccasioned chiefly by West Winds, because loaded with moist Vapours\nfrom the Sea.\n\n\nXIV.\n\n_If it turn out again out of the South to the North East with Rain,\nand continues in the North East two Days without Rain, and neither\nturns South nor rains the third Day_, it is like to continue North\nEast for two or three months.\n\n_The Wind will finish these Turns in three Weeks._\n\nTHIS Observation is of the same nature with the former, and is plainly\ndeduced from long experience. Our Author seems to contradict himself in\nsaying that these Winds finish their Turns in three Weeks, but his true\nMeaning certainly is, that they are \\about three Weeks in turning from\nthe South to the North East again. Some very great men have laid it\ndown as a thing certain, that the Variations of the Wind are to be\naccounted for by the Alteration of the Balance of the Air, occasioned\nby the different Effects of Heat and Cold; but other Writers again\ninsist very copiously on the Effects which Winds have upon the Air, and\nthus confound us in a Circle of Causes and Effects, whence it is plain\nthat they do not thoroughly understand the Subject themselves, and\ntherefore it is no Wonder that they are not able to explain it to\nothers.\n\nIN some Parts of the World, and especially between the Tropicks, the\nWinds are regular, and therefore our Philosophers seem to talk more\nrationally about them. But in our Northern Countries the Alterations of\nthe Wind are so frequent, sudden, and often so little agreeable to the\nSeason, that such general Reasonings will by no Means serve to explain\nthem. It is however very reasonable to suppose that the same general\nCause prevails here as between the Tropics, but with less Certainty,\nbecause the Power of the Sun is not so great, and the Determinations of\nthe Winds depend on the Situation of Mountains, Rocks, and Woods, which\ndirect the Air driving against them into certain Courses, so that it is\nimpossible to explain, or indeed to judge of the Course of the Winds\ntill the Country is thoroughly known, and all those Eminences that can\naffect the Winds are well considered.\n\nFROM these Reflections the Value of our Shepherd's Observations will\nclearly appear. He was not Philosopher enough to talk in this Style,\nbut by a long and steady Attention he came to know, experimentally,\nwhat perhaps few Philosophers, with all their Sagacity, would have been\nable to have found out.\n\n\nXV.\n\nS. W. WINDS. _After a northerly Wind for the most Part two months\n             or more, and then coming South, there are usually_\n             three or four fair Days at first, and then, on the fourth\n             or fifth Day, comes Rain, _or else the Wind turns North\n             again_, and continues dry.\n\nTHIS is likewise a very judicious and very useful Observation, and yet\nit is not a difficult matter to account for it. It is a common\nObservation, and a very true one, that there is usually fair Weather\nbefore a settled course of Rain. The Winds that bring the dark rainy\nClouds that obscure the Sky, and cause dull cloudy Weather, often raise\nthese Vapours to such a height, that they are attracted into the cold\nRegion above our Sight, till being condensed there, they fall down upon\nus again in Snow or Rain, according to our Author's Observation.\n\nBUT if, after a seeming Tendency to Rain, there follow several Days of\nfine Weather, it is a certain Indication that the Temper of the Air is\naltered, and that these Vapours had been driven off before they had\ntime to condense, which is confirmed by the Change of the Wind on such\nOccasions.\n\nALL these Observations are to be understood in a proper Latitude, and\nnot strictly and according to the very Letter. For Rain may fall the\nsixth or seventh Day, or the Wind may change the second or third.\nBesides, a Man who would make use of these Observations in the Country,\nmust consider attentively the Situation of the Place where he lives,\nthe bearing of the Sea, Marshes, Ponds, Lakes, Woods, Mountains, Rocks,\n_&c._ For without making proper Allowances for these, all such\nObservations on the Weather will be apt to fail him.\n\n\nXVI.\n\n_If it return to the South within a Day or two without Rain, and turn\nNorthward with Rain, and return to the South, in one or two Days, as\nbefore, two or three Times together after this Sort_, then it is\nlike to be in the South, or South West, two or three Months together,\n_as it was in the North before_.\n\n_The Winds will finish these Turns in a Fortnight._\n\nTHIS may appear a little perplexed to an ordinary Reader, but a little\nAttention will make it very clear and plain; and whoever considers what\nmighty Uses may be made of the Foresight of Weather for a Month or two,\nwill not think this Labour ill bestowed. I must confess I look upon\nthese three Rules in Relation to the Wind as the most useful in the\nwhole Collection. Especially to Farmers and Country People, to whom\nthey are of the greatest Consequence.\n\nBUT it is a common Thing for such People to say, what Certainty is\nthere that these Rules will prove true, what Probability is there that\nthe Wind should continue so long in one Quarter, and then so long in\nanother, how shall we be satisfied that there is any truth in this; or,\nif we cannot be satisfied as to the Truth of it, why should we depend\nupon any such like Observations?\n\nTO this I answer, that they may have reasonable Satisfaction given them\non this Head. Some of our great Naturalists, who had kept Journals of\nthe Weather for many Years, have found that the same Wind blows every\nYear very near the same number of Days, and that there is a regular\nContinuance of different Winds annually in every Country. For Instance,\n\nAt _Utrecht_ they blow thus,\n\n    The N. Wind     42 Days.\n    The N. W.       33\n    The W.          77\n    The S. W.       58\n    The South       33\n    The S. E.       26\n    The E.          53\n    The N. E.       43\n                   ---\n                   365\n\nIT is a Thing plain to every Capacity, that a Journal or Diary of the\nWinds may be kept any where, and if from such a Journal it appears that\na given Wind blows for a certain Number of Days, then it follows, that\nif these can be determined with Certainty, the Time of their blowing\nmay also be determined, at least with great Probability, which is as\nsatisfactory an Answer as can be justly expected, because it shews that\nthere is just and rational Ground for confiding in such Observations,\nwhen confirmed by long Experience.\n\n\nXVII.\n\n_Fair Weather for a Week, with a Southern Wind, is like to_\nproduce a great Drought, _if there has been much Rain out of the\nSouth before. The Wind usually turns from North to South, with a quiet\nWind without Rain, but returns to the North, with a strong Wind and\nRain; the strongest Winds are when it turns from South, to North by\nWest._\n\nN. B. _When the North Wind first clears the Air (which is usually\nonce a Week) be sure of a fair Day or two._\n\nOBSERVATIONS of this Nature upon Winds have employed the ablest Heads\nin all Ages. _Pliny_ the great Naturalist has left us a great deal upon\nthis Subject, which plainly proves that it has been the Opinion of the\nablest and wisest Men that Study and Experience might reduce even\nThings of such seeming Incertainty under stated Rules, and within the\nBounds of a regular System. For Instance he tells us.\n\n    \"IN _Africa_ the South Wind is serene, the North East cloudy.\n    All the Winds have their Turns. To judge rationally of their\n    Changes, the fourth Day of the Moon is to be regarded.--The South\n    Wind blows stronger than the North East, because the former rises\n    from the Bottom, whereas the latter comes from the Surface of the\n    Sea. It is for this Reason that those Earthquakes are most\n    dangerous that follow after a South Wind.\"\n\nIN order to understand this Notion of _Pliny_, we need only advert\nto the Account given us by the Reverend Mr. _Robinson_, in his\nnatural History of _Westmoreland_, which is exceedingly curious,\nand well worthy of the Reader's perusal. This ingenious Gentleman is of\nOpinion that Winds have their original from the Sea, of which he gives\nthe following very probable Account.\n\n    \"IT, that is, the Wind, proceeds from vast swarms of nitrous\n    Particles arising from the Bottom of the Sea, which being put into\n    Motion, either by the central Fire, or by the Heat and Fermentation\n    which abound in this great Body of the Earth; and therefore the\n    first Commotion excited by the said Fermentation, we call a _Bottom\n    Wind_, which is presently discovered by Porpusses and other Sea\n    Fish, which delight in sporting and playing upon the Waves of the\n    Sea, and by their playing give the Mariners the first Notice of an\n    approaching Storm.\n\n    \"WHEN these nitrous swarms are risen towards the Surface of the Sea\n    in a dark Night, they cause such a shining light upon the Waves, as\n    if the Sea was on fire. And being delivered from the brackish\n    Water, and received into the open Air, those fiery and shining\n    Meteors which fix upon the Masts and Sides of the Ships, and are\n    only nitrous particles condensed by the circumambient Cold, and\n    like that which the Chymists call Phosphorus, or artificial\n    Glow-worm, shine and cast a Light but have no Heat: This gives the\n    Mariners the second Notice that the Storm is rising, for upon the\n    first breaking out of the Wind, the Sea begins to be rough, and the\n    Waves swell and rise, when at the same time the Air is calm and\n    clear.\n\n    \"THIS boiling Fermentation of the Sea causes the Vapours to rise,\n    which by the Intenseness of the circumambient Cold are condensed\n    into thick Clouds, and fall down in Storms of Wind and Rain, first\n    upon the Sea, from whence they rose, and then the attractive Power\n    of the Mountain-cold, by a secret Magnetism between Vapour and\n    Cold, attracts the waterish Vapours, intermixt with nitrous\n    Particles, to the high Tops of Mountains and Hills, where they hang\n    hovering in thick Fogs and waterish Mists, until the atmospherical\n    Heat rarefies the nitrous Part of the Fog (which is always\n    uppermost, and appears white and translucent) into brisk Gales of\n    Wind, and the Intenseness of atmospherical Cold having attracted\n    the Vapours into the colder Regions of the Air, where being\n    condensed into Clouds, the Wind breaks, dissipates, and drives them\n    before it, till they fall down in Rain, and water the Surface of\n    the Earth. And this seems to be the Reason why, in _Egypt_, and\n    those level Countries where they have no Mountains, they have\n    little Wind and less Rain.\"\n\n\nXVIII.\n\nCLOUDS. _In Summer or Harvest, when the Wind has been South two or\n        three Days, and it grows very hot, and you see Clouds rise with\n        great white Tops like Towers, as if one were upon the Top of\n        another, and joined together with black on the nether Side_,\n        there will be Thunder and Rain suddenly.\n\nWE may very easily account for this Observation, because in Fact the\nSigns here mentioned are no other than Nature's apparatus for a Storm\nof Thunder and Lightning, which will be perfectly understood by\nattending a little to the Causes of these Meteors. Lightning is a great\nflame, very bright, extending every way to a great distance, suddenly\ndarting upwards, there ending, so that it is only momentaneous. The\nMatter which produces the Fire, is the Oil of Plants, attenuated by the\nheat of the Day, and raised on high. Then whatever has exhaled from the\nEarth that is sulphureous or Oily, which is dispersed up and down in\nthe Atmosphere, and is not continuous, is set on Fire by Turns, and the\nFlame dilates itself as far as the Tract of that Exhalation reaches.\nSome other Substance pendant and floating in the Air meets with this\nalso, with which it excites an effervescence, takes Fire and flashes\nalong with it. Thunder is another bright Flame, rising on a sudden,\nmoving with great Velocity through the Air, according to any\nDetermination upwards from the Earth horizontally, obliquely, downwards\nin a right Line, or in several right Lines as it were in serpentine\nTracts joined at various Angles, and commonly ending with a loud Noise\nor Rattling.\n\nIT is observed that it thunders most when the Wind blows from the\nSouth, and least when it blows from the East. The great Principle of\nThunder is Sulphur, as is evident from the Smell it leaves behind it;\nbut in order to occasion such an Explosion, there must be other\nIngredients mixed therewith, especially Nitre, of which the Air is\nalways full, besides other Things, of which it is impossible to give\nany Account. The Tracts of this Sort of Matter fly about in the Air,\nand are as it were Lines of Gunpowder, and as in the firing of that\nPowder, the Fire begins at one End, and pursuing its Aliment proceeds\nto the other Extremity, and so the whole Mass of Powder is fired; we\nmay from thence account for the Phaenomenon of Thunder. For in like\nManner those inflamed Tracts which are suspended in the Air, flash from\na Flame that runs from one Extreme to the other, wherever the Vein of\nNourishment leads it. Hence those Rays of Thunder, which seem to be\nbrandished through the Air, and sometimes to be split in two or more\nTracts, and sometimes to return back, at other Times to be projected in\nLines that are joined by various Angles, and this only because the\nFlame meets with Tracts lying in various Situations that cohere one\nwith another. Therefore Thunder seems now to run horizontally, now from\nabove downwards, now upwards from the Earth, for if the Matter of\nThunder pressing out of the Earth is enflamed near the Ground, the\nFlame darting upwards, the Thunder will seem to be projected out of the\nEarth. If the same Tract be set on Fire at its upper end, the Flame\nwill move downwards, and the Thunder will seem to descend out of the\nSky.\n\nHENCE we easily understand how it comes to thunder oftener in one Place\nthan another, but most frequently in those where the Soil produces\nodoriferous Herbs, and abounds with Sulphur, and where the People are\nmuch exposed to the extreme Heat of the Sun. Thunder is less frequent\nin Places where there are few odoriferous Herbs, very little Sulphur,\nor where the Climate is watery and moist. For Instance, it thunders\nvery much in _Italy_ and _Sicily_, and very rarely in _Egypt_, and the\nadjacent Countries. If it be demanded how it comes to thunder in the\nmidst of the Ocean? The Answer is easy, because from the Bottom of the\nOcean vast Tracts of sulphureous Matter are cast up through the Waters;\nas it happens to spring Waters in several Places, the Streams of which\nwill take Fire from a lighted Candle. For sulphureous Exhalations\nbursting out together with the Waters, the fulmineous Matter in the Air\nis set on Fire when it meets with Exhalations or Vapours with which it\ncan excite a vehement Effervescence. It is very clear from this\nAccount, that the Clouds mentioned at the Top of the twenty-eighth Page\nare thunder Clouds, or Clouds big with the Materials of Thunder.\n\n\nXIX.\n\n_If two such Clouds arise, one on either Hand_, it is Time to make\nhaste to shelter.\n\nAS this Observation is of the same Nature with the former, we shall\ncontinue our Remarks. The Reason why it seldom thunders in Winter is,\nbecause the exterior Parts of the Earth are so contracted by the cold\nSnow and Ice, that Sulphur cannot perspire in any great Quantities, but\nas soon as the Earth begins to be opened by the Sun in the Spring,\nsomething expires in the Month of _April_ which takes Fire. But by the\ngreater Heat of the Sun penetrating deeper into the Earth, the Cortex\nis more opened in _May_, and now there is a more copious Expiration of\nthe fulminating Matter, and whatever was collected and shut up in\nWinter, is now released and snatched up in the Air, and thence proceeds\nthe most frequent Thunders in the Month of _May_, and chiefly when a\nvery hot Day or two has gone before. A less Quantity of the same Matter\nremains in the upper Cortex of the Earth for the Month of _June_, but\nin the mean Time a Stock arises out of the deeper Bowels of the Earth,\nwhich is attenuated and prepared, so that by the very fervent Heat of\n_July_ it is elevated, as it were in heaps, and set on Fire. Hence\nThunder is as frequent in _July_ as in _May_. And the Heat decreasing\nin the succeeding Months, the Exhalation of the fulminating Matter out\nof the Earth is more sparing, and thence, also, the thunder is less\nfrequent, till in October, and the other winter months, the earth is\nbound up with us, and hardly expires any more. Hence we see why it very\nseldom thunders when the northerly winds blow; for these winds\nconstringe the earth with their cold, and so hinder the fulminating\nmatter from bursting forth; and when they are burst forth and floating\nin the air, they hinder their effervency. But on the contrary, when the\nwarm and moist south winds blow, which open every thing, the earth\nlikewise is opened, and abundance of fulminating matter is expired and\nascends on high, which is there easily inflamed.\n\nAS the flame runs very swiftly, it seems to carry along with it\nparticles, which it could not so easily set on fire, and when any of\nthese particles are drawn together, and heated to a certain degree,\nthey at last take fire, with a sudden and great explosion, and thereby\nproduce what we call a thunder Clap. Now, though this be only a single\nsound, yet it is often heard in the form of a great murmuring noise of\na long continuance; sometimes for thirty or forty seconds, because of\nits various repercussions by the clouds and terrestrial obstacles.\nHence it is, that in vales, which are surrounded by mountains of a\ndifferent Height, there is a terrible and long continued Bellowing of\nthunder Claps. Whereas for one Explosion it has been observed that\nthere is but one Clap. Yet however if the Flame set Fire to two, three,\nor more fulmineous Tracts, each of them at last will end in a Clap, and\nthus several Sounds may be heard together, or quickly succeeding one\nanother.\n\n\nXX.\n\n_If you see a Cloud rise against the Wind or side Wind, when that\nCloud comes up to you, the Wind will blow the same Way that the Cloud\ncame. And the same Rule holds of a clear Place, when all the Sky is\nequally thick, except one clear Edge._\n\nTHIS seems to arise from hence, that Wind being nothing more than Air\nin motion, the Effects of it first discover themselves above, and\nactually drive such Clouds before them. This was long ago observed by\n_Pliny_. When Clouds, says he, float about in a serene Sky, from\nwhatever Quarter they come, you may expect Winds. If they are collected\ntogether in one Place, they will be dispersed by the approach of the\nSun. If these Clouds come from the North East, they denote Winds; if\nfrom the South great Rains. But let them come from what Quarter they\nwill, if you see them driving thus about Sunset, they are sure signs of\nan approaching Tempest.\n\nIF the Clouds look dusky, or of a tarnish silver Colour, and move very\nslowly, it is a Sign of Hail. But to speak more plainly, those very\nClouds are laden with Hail, which if there be a Mixture of Blue in the\nClouds will be small, but if very yellow, large. Small scattering\nClouds that fly very high, especially, from the South West, denote\nWhirlwinds. The shooting of fallen Stars through them, is a Sign of\nThunder. We meet with many Observations of this sort in our old Writers\non Husbandry, and we have abundance of Proverbs relating to this\nSubject which are worth observing, and the rather, because most of them\nare not peculiar to our Language only, but common to us with many of\nour Neighbours. It is the Remark of Lord _Bacon_, and a very judicious\nRemark too, that Proverbs are the Philosophy of the common People, that\nis to say, they are trite Remarks founded in Truth, and fitted for\nMemory. I must confess that there are some of them that seem either\nfalse, or of no great Consequence, but then I am apt to suspect, that\nby various Accidents we have lost their true Meaning, or else, that in\nlength of Time, they have been altered and corrupted, till they have\nlittle or no meaning at all.\n\nI cannot help taking Notice in Regard to the Rule before us, that\nCaptain _Dampier_ tells us in the _East-Indies_, they have always\nNotice of a Tuffoon by the Skies being first clear and calm, and then a\nsmall white Cloud hanging precisely in the Point from whence the Storm\ncomes, where he observes that it remains sometimes twelve Hours or\nmore, and adds, that as soon as it begins to move, the Wind presently\nfollows it. When Sir _John Bury_, who died an _English_ Admiral, had\nthe Command of a small Frigate in the _West-Indies_, he escaped a\nHurricane in the _Leward_ Islands by taking the Advice of a poor Negro,\nwho shewed him a small white Cloud at a Distance, and assured him that\nwhen it came to the _Zenith_, the Hurricane would infallibly begin, as\nindeed it did.\n\n\nXXI.\n\n_Sudden Rains never_ last long: _But when the Air grows thick by\nDegrees, and the Sun, Moon, and Stars shine dimmer and dimmer, then\nit is like_ to rain six Hours usually.\n\nRAIN is, properly speaking, a Multitude of small watery Drops, falling\nfrom the upper Air at different Seasons. When the upper Regions become\ncold of a sudden, the watery Clouds are condensed and fall in hasty\nShowers. It is observed that mountainous Countries have most Rain, and\nthe Reason seems to be the Winds driving the Clouds against the Rocks\nand Hills, and thereby compressing them in such a Manner, that they are\nimmediately dissolved, and fall as it were at once. This is the Reason\nthat in _Lancashire_ there falls twice as much Rain as in _Essex_, and\nit is probably from the same Cause, that in the Ocean, over-against the\nmountainous Coast of _Guinea_, showers sometimes fall as it were by\nPailfuls.\n\nTHIS Observation of our Shepherd is very just and reasonable, and I\ndare say will hardly ever fail such as observe it. The Dimness of the\nStars and other heavenly Bodies, is one of the surest Signs of very\nrainy Weather. It is likewise to be observed that when the Stars look\nbigger than usual, and are pale and dull and without Rays, this\nundoubtedly indicates that the Clouds are condensing into Rain, which\nwill very soon fall; and it has been observed that when the Air grows\nthick by Degrees, and the Light of the Sun lessens so as not to be\ndiscerned at all, and again when the Moon or Stars have the same\nAppearances, a continued Rain for at least six Hours is sure to follow.\n\nTO be the better informed in such Cases, it is best to have Recourse to\na variety of Signs, for it is not only the Clouds and Sky, or the Sun,\nMoon, and Stars, that gives us previous Notice of rainy Weather, but\nalmost every Thing in the Creation, and Vegetables particularly. As for\nInstance, the Pimpernel, which is a very common flower, shuts itself up\nextremely close against rainy Weather. In like manner the Trefoil\nswells in the Stalk against Rain, so that it stands up very stiff, but\nthe Leaves droop and hang down. Even the most solid Bodies are affected\nby this Change of the Atmosphere, for Stones seem to sweat, and Wood\nswells, the Air driving the moist Particles with which it is filled\ninto the Pores of dry Wood especially, makes it swell prodigiously, and\nthis is the Reason the Doors and Windows are hard to shut in rainy\nWeather.\n\nTHIS is so true, that there has been a Method found of dividing\nMill-stones by the mere Force of the Air, which is done in this Manner.\nThey divide a Block of this kind of Stone as big as a large rolling\nStone, into as many Parts as they design to make Millstones, and in the\nCircles where this Block is to be divided, they pierce several Holes,\nwhich they fill with allow Wood dried in an Oven, and expose the Stone\nto the Air, in moist Weather; when the Wood swells to such a Degree as\nto split the Stone as effectually, as if it was by iron Wedges driven\nby Sledge-Hammers. This curious and extraordinary Method of dividing\nMill-stones is related by the famous Mr. _Ozanam_ of his own Knowledge.\n\n\nXXII.\n\n_If it begin to Rain from the South, with a high Wind for two or\nthree Hours, and the Wind falls, but the Rain continues_, it is like\nto rain twelve Hours or more, and does usually rain till a strong North\nWind clears the Air. _These long Rains seldom hold above twelve\nHours, or happen above_ once a Year.\n\nTHIS depends entirely upon Observation, and Experience shews us that\nwhenever the Wind falls, Rain follows. It has been likewise observed,\nthat when the Wind changes often there fall heavy Rains. All these\nAlterations in the Atmosphere, are less observed by Men than by\nAnimals, for two Reasons. The first is, that we live much within Doors,\nby which they are less obvious to us, and it is for this Reason that\nthe Husbandman, Seamen, Fishermen, but above all Shepherds, who are\nmore in the open Air than other Men, are better acquainted with, and\nmore able to distinguish and judge of the Signs of the Alteration of\nthe Weather, than those who live altogether within Doors, or go out but\nseldom. Another Reason is our having so many Things to mind, which\ntakes off our Thoughts, and renders us less attentive to the Signals\nwhich would give up Notice of such Alterations. It is for this Reason\nthat we ought to serve ourselves of that Sort of Instinct which Nature\nhas given to other Animals, and which as it is a Gift of Nature, is in\na Manner infallible.\n\nTHUS if small Birds prune themselves and duck and make a shew of\nwashing. If Crows make a great Noise in the Evening, if Geese gaggle\nmore than usual, these are all Signs of Rain, because these Animals\nlove wet Weather, and rejoice at the approach of it. On the other Hand,\nif Oxen lie on their Right Sides, look towards the South, and lick\ntheir Hoofs, if Cows look up in the Air, and snuff it, if Asses bray\nviolently, and if Cocks crow at unusual Hours, but especially when a\nHen and Chickens crowd into the House, these are sure Signs of Rain.\n\nINSECTS also are very sensible of such Changes of Weather. Frogs croak\nmore than ordinary, Worms creep out of the Ground, Moles throw up more\nEarth than usual, because such Weather is more agreeable to them;\nHornets, Wasps, and Gnats, sting more frequently against wet Weather\nthan in fair. Spiders are restless and uneasy, and frequently drop from\nthe Wall, the humid Air getting into their Webs and making them heavy.\nBut the surest and most certain Sign is taken from Bees, which are more\nincommoded by Rain than almost any other Creatures, and therefore, as\nsoon as the Air begins to grow heavy, and the Vapours to condense, they\nwill not fly from their Hives, but either remain in them all Day, or\nelse fly but to a small Distance.\n\n\nXXIII.\n\n_If it begins to rain an Hour or two before Sun-rising, it is like to\nbe fair_ before Noon, and so continue that Day, _but if the Rain\nbegin an Hour or two after Sun-rising, it is like_ to Rain all that\nDay, _except the Rainbow be seen before it rains_.\n\nTHIS is a short, clear, and easy Observation, and therefore I shall not\ndwell long upon it, but rather entertain the Reader with a few\nObservations on the Rainbow. Whenever it appears, things are thus\ncircumstanced. The Spectator has the Sun behind him, and Clouds with\nthe Bow in them before him. Sometimes there are two and even three Bows\nseen, but this is very rare. The Colours in the Bow are ranged in this\nOrder, _viz._ Violet, Purple, Blue, Green, Yellow, Orange, Red. After a\nlong Drought the Bow is a certain Sign of Rain, if after much Wet fair\nWeather. If the Green be large and bright it is a Sign of Rain, but if\nthe Red be the strongest Colour, then it denotes Wind and Rain\ntogether. If the Bow breaks up all at once there will follow serene and\nsettled Weather. If the Bow be seen in the Morning small Rain will\nfollow. If at Noon, settled and heavy Rains; if at Night, fair Weather.\nThe Appearance of two or three Rainbows shews fair Weather for the\npresent, but settled and heavy Rains in two or three Days' Time.\n\nLUNAR Rainbows are sometimes, but very seldom seen, they are extremely\nbeautiful, but much less than those that appear in the Day time, and a\nyellow, or rather a straw Colour prevails most. As they happen so\nseldom, they cannot well be reckoned amongst the Signs of Weather. But\nnow, after speaking of so many different Methods of judging when rainy\nWeather will be of a short or long Continuance: Give me leave to\ndescribe two or three Instruments easily made, which will shew the\nAlterations of the Weather certainly, constantly, and early enough for\nmost Uses.\n\nTHERE were some Years ago a Sort of Toys sold, with a Man and a Woman\nso fixed before the Door of a House, that at the Approach of wet\nWeather the Woman entered it, and when the Weather grew fair the Man.\nThis was done by the Help of a Bit of Catgut, which shrinks in wet\nWeather, and stretches again when it is fair. This appears better by a\nLine and Plummet, especially if the Line be made of good Whipcord, that\nis well dried, for then if it be hung against a Wainscot, and a Line\ndrawn under it exactly where the Plummet reaches, in very moderate\nWeather it will be found to rise above it before Rain, and to sink\nbelow when the Weather is like to become fair; but the best Instrument\nof all is a good Pair of Scales, in one of which let there be a brass\nWeight of a Pound, and in the other a Pound of Salt, or of Salt-Petre\nwell dried, a Stand being placed under the Scale, so as to hinder its\nfalling too low. When it is inclined to rain the Salt will swell, and\nsink the Scale, when the Weather is growing fair, the brass Weight will\nregain its Ascendancy.\n\n\nXXIV.\n\nSPRING and SUMMER. _If the last eighteen Days of_ February _and\n                   ten Days of_ March _be for the most part_\n                   rainy, _then the_ Spring and Summer _Quarters\n                   are like to be so too: and I never knew_ a great\n                   Drought _but it entered_ in that Season.\n\nIT is easy to discover by Observation whether this Rule be well or ill\nfounded, that is to say, whether our Shepherd's Observation will serve\nfor other Places or not, and where it will serve and where not. But it\nmay not be amiss to remark that it is highly probable, or rather\nabsolutely certain, that the Weather in one Season of the Year\ndetermines the Weather in another. For instance, if there be a rainy\nWinter then the Autumn will be dry, if a dry Spring, then a rainy\nWinter. Our Forefathers had abundance of odd Sayings upon this Subject,\nand some Proverbs for every Month in the Year, but I doubt they were\nindifferently founded, however there can be no Harm in observing them,\nin order to discover whether there be any thing in them or not.\n\n    _Janiveer_ freeze the Pot by the Fire\n\n    If the Grass grow in _Janiveer_\n    It grows the worse for't all the Year.\n    The _Welchman_ had rather see his Dam on the Bier\n    Than to see a fair _Februeer_.\n    _March_ Wind and _May_ Sun\n    Make Clothes white and Maids Dun.\n    When _April_ blows his Horn\n    It's good both for Hay and Corn.\n    An _April_ Flood\n    Carries away the Frog and her Brood.\n    A cold _May_ and a windy\n    Makes a full Barn and a Findy.\n    A _May_ Flood never did good.\n    A Swarm of Bees in _May_\n    Is worth a Load of Hay.\n    But a Swarm in _July_\n    Is not worth a Fly, _&c._\n\n\nXXV.\n\nWINTER. _If the latter End of_ October _and Beginning of_ November\n        _be for the most Part warm and rainy, then_ January _and_\n        February are like to be frosty and cold, _except after a\n        very dry Summer_.\n\nIT is very evident, supposing this Observation to be true, as I am\npretty confident it is, that the Reason of it is to be sought in that\nBalance of the Weather which Providence has established. There is not\nonly a Time to sow, and a Time to reap, but there is a Time also for\ndry and a Time for wet Weather, and if these do not happen at proper\nSeasons, they will certainly happen at other Seasons; for not only the\nWisdom of Philosophers hath discerned, but their Experiments and\nObservations have put it out of doubt, that there is a certain Rule or\nProportion observed between wet Weather and dry in every Country, so\nthat it is nearly the same in every annual Revolution, neither is wet\nand dry Weather only, but hot and cold, open and frost, that are thus\nregulated, from whence we see, that when the Scripture represents to us\nGod's settling Things by Weight and Measure, it speaks not only\nelegantly, but exactly. For we do not mean by Providence any\nextraordinary or supernatural Interposition of almighty Power, but the\nconstant and settled Order established by the Will of that almighty\nBeing which we commonly call Nature.\n\nTHERE is nothing easier than for vulgar Understandings to mistake the\nMeaning of Words, and by a Superstition natural to weak Minds convert,\nwhat they imperfectly understand into Notions that perplex and confound\nthem. Hence it proceeds that in common Conversation one hears People\nspeak of Nature as of a Being, or a Kind of subordinate Deity, whereas\nin Reality the true Meaning of Nature is, that Order or Law which God\nhas established in the Universe, and the Knowledge of Nature is no more\nthan the Light we acquire by Study into the Connexion of those Laws. In\nthis Sense Experience is a Kind of Revelation, that is to say, it is a\nSort of Knowledge that comes to us from without, and is infallible in\nitself, we may indeed go on wrong and deceive ourselves in the\nArguments we raise from it, but the Knowledge grounded upon Experiments\nnever varies.\n\nTHIS is sufficient to shew us how much wiser a Thing it is to trust\nthis Sort of experimental Knowledge, then to put any Faith in that Kind\nof idle Science which amused our Forefathers, and enabled Almanac\nMakers to delude and mislead them. It is true we use the Luminaries as\nwell as they, but then we use them in a rational Manner, and do not\npretend to impose this or that Sign upon other People, but barely set\ndown our own Observations, which are to be examined and verified by the\nExperience of those to whom they are submitted. The Astrologer on the\nother Hand insists on what are not in Nature; the twelve Houses are a\nmere Invention, and so are all the Properties ascribed to the celestial\nSigns, and to the Planets; mere Dreams and Fictions devised by the\nCunning to cheat and impose upon the Ignorant, and which had been long\nago exploded if People had brought them to the only Test of which they\nare capable, I mean that of Experience; with which they never did,\nnever will, and indeed never can agree: whereas the Rules given by our\nShepherd, are such as we have shewn, suit perfectly well with Remarks\nof other studious Persons in all Ages.\n\n\nXXVI.\n\n_If_ October _and_ November _be Snow and Frost, then_ January _and_\nFebruary _are like to be_ open _and mild_.\n\nAS this Observation stands on the same Foundation with the last, we\nneed not dwell upon it particularly, and therefore I shall proceed with\nmy former Reflections. The only Way to be acquainted with Nature, is to\nstudy Nature. All Systems of human Invention that are not built upon\nExperiments, are sooner or later found to be false, because, to say the\nTruth, they are nothing better than ingenious Contrivances invented by\nthe Wit of Man, to conceal his Ignorance. In order to account for what\nwe behold, we must first of all take Pains to be well acquainted with\nthe Fact, and not suffer ourselves to be led away by Opinion. In order\nto explain what I mean, I shall give an Instance. All the World knows\nthat not only the vulgar, but the learned, were for many Ages in a\nconstant Error about Corruption, and really believed that the Heat of\nthe Sun, and even animal Heat produced Worms, Maggots, and other living\nCreatures. Many grave Writers carried the Thing farther, and told us of\nRats, Mice, and other Creatures produced out of the Slime of the River\n_Nile_, by the Heat of the Sun in _Egypt_, which might very well pass\nfor Truth among those who fancied they saw every Day something of the\nlike Nature: I mean in the Corruption of Flesh and other Things, in\nwhich we behold Thousands of living Creatures.\n\nAN _Italian_ Philosopher destroyed this whole Doctrine at once, by a\nsimple and easy Experiment. He exposed a Piece of raw Flesh in a glass\nVessel well covered with Gauze to the Air and Sun, and found that it\nputrefied without producing any living Creatures. This shews how\ncareful we ought to be with Respect to Facts; for till this Experiment\nwas made, no Body doubted that Vermin were bred by, as well as in\nputrefied Bodies; whereas we are now satisfied that the Heat of the Sun\ncan no more produce a Worm or a Maggot, than a Horse or an Elephant. By\nthe same Examination we might open the Way to Knowledge, by driving out\na Multitude of other Errors. But the Humour of taking Things for\ngranted without inquiring into them, and then endeavouring to account\nfor them by dint of Reasoning, amuses us with a false shew of Wisdom,\nand encourages us to persist obstinately in the Maintenance of weak and\nfoolish Notions.\n\nTO apply this to the Subject of which we are treating. It is certainly\na curious and a useful Thing to understand the Nature of the Weather,\nand to know how the Changes that happen in it come to pass. The\nBusiness is to find out the true Way of coming at this kind of\nKnowledge, and upon the Principles that I have advanced, it is very\nevident that the, only certain Way of coming at it is by Observation.\nThis is a slow but a sure Method of arriving at Truth, and the Specimen\nhere given us, of _one_ Man's Observations, is enough to convince us\nthat a little Diligence and Application would soon go a great Way\ntowards forming a Body of such Observations as might enable us to\nunderstand the Weather thoroughly, and to predict its Changes and\nAlterations with a great Degree of Certainty. If we will not take this\nPains, we must content ourselves with what hath been already\ndiscovered, or if our Conditions of Life exclude us from the\nOpportunities of making such Observations, it is certainly a right\nThing to help ourselves by inquiring into, and reasoning upon such\nObservations as other People have made and to facilitate this as far as\npossible, I have taken the Pains to write this Commentary upon our\nShepherd's Rules; which I hope will render them more useful, or at\nleast secure them that Regard which they deserve.\n\nTHERE remains therefore nothing more for me to do in order to recommend\nthese Observations, but to say somewhat with Respect to the Utility of\nthe Alterations of the Weather in general, and in particular; in order\nto satisfy the Reader that there is nothing of Chance or Accident in\nsuch Alterations, but that they are governed in every Respect by the\nsame unerring Wisdom, that at first framed and constantly preserves the\nUniverse. All Weathers are at sometimes reasonable, which shews that\nthey are good in themselves, and only accidentally evil. We ought not\nto measure Things of a general Nature, by particular Rules. If by the\nDirection of Providence the Succession of Seasons be such, as that they\nturn to the good of Mankind in the whole; it is no Objection to, or\nDiminution of Providence that this Succession of Seasons should at\ndifferent Times be injurious to certain Countries, because this may\nlikewise be accounted for.\n\nAS to Particulars we will begin with the Air, which is composed of\nExhalations of all earthly Bodies, as well solid as fluid, as also of\nFire, whether of the Sun or the Stars, or of earthly Bodies burnt, or\nof Fire breaking out from the Entrails of the Earth, and ascending, and\nthough it be thus compounded, and hath swimming in it Multitudes of\nother Things, yet we find that it is perfectly wholesome, is the Spring\nof Motion, and of Life to Men, and all other Animals; so that though we\ncannot account for, and perhaps have not a Power of comprehending how\nsuch a mixed Body can be rendered salutary: yet since it is certain,\nthat so it is, we have no Right to complain either of the evil\nConsequences that sometimes attend the Exhalations with which it is\nfilled, or the Accidents that flow from the frequent Alterations that\nhappen therein, because these have a visible Tendency to the general\ngood, and are apparently necessary to the Preservation of the Universe,\nso that before we can have any Title to find fault, we must first shew\nthat we are capable of understanding them in their full Extent, and as\n_this_ is impossible, it follows _that_ must be unreasonable.\n\nBUT this appears still the more clearly, when it is considered, that\nall such Alterations may be shewn even from the Light of Reason to be\ngenerally useful, notwithstanding they sometimes appear troublesome and\nnoxious. For Instance, such quick Streams of Air in Motion as we call\nWinds, though they sometimes swell into Storms and Tempests, yet are\nthey of great Benefit to Mankind, by purging the Air, and many other\nConveniences. It is a Proverb at _Vienna, that if_ Austria_ be not\nwindy it is sickly_; and this Saying is no less true in other\nCountries, for by consulting the History of the last great Plague that\nraged here in 1666, it will be found that there was in a Manner a dead\nCalm during the Time of the Sickness, and it is known in _Egypt_, where\nthey have Plagues annually, that the Change of the Wind delivers them\nfrom that Evil. Add to this the great Use of Winds in Navigation, and\nreflect on the Benefits that accrue there from, and we shall see no\nCause whatever to doubt that this Motion of the Air is a very wise\nContrivance.\n\nTHE Condensation of Vapours, which is the Cause of Rain, is another\ngreat Benefit to the World, in as much as this is very probably\nsupposed to be the Source of Fountains, Rivers, Lakes, and other\nMagazines of fresh Water, without which the Earth would be uninhabitable,\nand to which in a very great Measure its Fertility is owing. We ought\nlikewise to remember that though this be in itself so clear, and at the\nsame Time so certain, yet there are Countries in the World where it\nvery seldom rains, as in _Egypt_, and others where it hardly ever\nrains, as in _Peru_; so that we see there is no raising general\nDoctrines upon this Subject, which ought to make us the more tender in\ndisputing the Will of Providence, or repining when it happens to cross\nour own.\n\nTHE Uses of Snow are as great though less apparent, of which I shall\nmention but three. The first is its preserving Herbs and Grass in the\nWinter against the Severity of Frost; secondly, its supplying Water to\nBrooks and Rivers; and lastly, its furnishing the Earth with vast\nQuantities of Nitre, and thereby conducing greatly to its Fertility,\nand perhaps the same thing may be said of Frost, hard Winters being\noften succeeded by luxuriant Summers, and thus we find that what in\nAppearance causes Scarcity, may in Reality produce Plenty.\n\nLASTLY, even Thunder, however terrible in its Appearance, and sometimes\nfatal in its Effects, is nevertheless very useful and beneficial upon\nthe whole, for this likewise purifies the Air from sulphureous and oily\nExhalations, and the Rains that fall with it fertilize the Earth\nexceedingly. It also moderates the Heat as Experience teaches us, for\nas it is always gloomy and sultry before Thunder, so it is afterwards\ngenerally cool and pleasant. These Remarks, though very short, may give\nthe Reader an Opportunity of extending his Observations throughout all\nthe Variations of Weather, and enable him to discern how useful and\ninstructive a thing the Study of its Alterations may be, and how\nprobable it is, that by proper Care and Attention, we may arrive at a\nmuch more useful, as well as a much more certain Knowledge in regard to\nthe Weather, than hitherto has been attained.\n\n\nFINIS.","title":"The Shepherd of Banbury's Rules to Judge of the Changes of the Weather, Grounded on Forty Years' Experience","tradition":"folklore-oral-tradition","translated_text":null,"word_count":12551}