{"collection":"philosophy-ethics","full_text_available":true,"graph_url":"https://unchartedknowledge.5gfusion.net/v2/api/page/gutenberg_70955/graph","html_url":"https://unchartedknowledge.5gfusion.net/v2/page/gutenberg_70955","id":"gutenberg_70955","license":"Public Domain (US)","rights_basis":"gutenberg_metadata_copyright_false","source":"gutenberg","source_url":"https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/70955","summary":null,"tags":["Biology","Category: Essays, Letters & Speeches","Category: Philosophy & Ethics","Category: Science - Biology","Category: Science - Chemistry/Biochemistry","Category: Science - Physics","Science"],"text":"Transcriber\u2019s Notes\n\n1. New original cover art included with this eBook is granted to the\npublic domain.\n\n2. Typographical errors and hyphenation inconsistencies were silently\ncorrected.\n\n3. The text version is coded for italics and the like mark-ups i.e.,\n\n     (a) italics are indicated thus _italic_;\n     (b) small-caps are indicated thus +CAPS+;\n     (c) Images are indicated as [Illustration: (with narration...)]\n     (d) Footnotes were moved to the end of the book.\n\n                   *       *       *       *       *\n\n\n\n\n                               DAEDALUS\n\n                                  OR\n\n                        SCIENCE AND THE FUTURE\n\n\n\n\n                      TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW SERIES\n\n\n                     DAEDALUS, +OR SCIENCE AND THE\n                                FUTURE+\n\n                          By J. B. S. Haldane\n\n                  ICARUS, +OR THE FUTURE OF SCIENCE+\n\n                      By Bertrand Russell, F.R.S.\n\n\n         THE MONGOL IN OUR MIDST, +OR MAN AND HIS THREE FACES+\n\n                  By F. G. Crookshank, M.C., F.R.C.P.\n\n                        WIRELESS POSSIBILITIES\n\n                          By Prof. A. M. Low\n\n\n                        E. P. DUTTON & COMPANY\n\n\n\n\n                               DAEDALUS\n\n                                  OR\n\n                        Science and the Future\n\n                A PAPER READ TO THE HERETICS, CAMBRIDGE\n                        ON FEBRUARY 4TH, 1923.\n\n                                  BY\n\n                           J. B. S. HALDANE\n\n               _Sir William Dunn Reader in Bio-chemistry\n                         Cambridge University_\n\n                         [Illustration: logo]\n\n                              +NEW YORK+\n\n                        E. P. DUTTON & COMPANY\n\n                          +681 FIFTH AVENUE+\n\n\n\n\n                            Copyright, 1924\n\n                       By E. P. Dutton & Company\n\n                         _All Rights Reserved_\n\n\n                      First Printing, April, 1924\n                      Second Printing, May, 1924\n                     Third Printing, August, 1924\n                    Fourth Printing, October, 1924\n                    Fifth Printing, December, 1924\n                    Sixth Printing, December, 1924\n                     Seventh Printing, April, 1925\n                      Eighth Printing, June, 1925\n                      Ninth Printing, June, 1925\n\n\n                Printed in the United States of America\n\n\n\n\n                             INTRODUCTION\n\n\nI have slightly expanded certain parts of this paper since reading\nit. It has therefore probably lost any unity which it may once have\npossessed. It will be criticized for its undue and unpleasant emphasis\non certain topics. This is necessary if people are to be induced to\nthink about them, and it is the whole business of a university teacher\nto induce people to think.\n\n\n\n\n                               DAEDALUS\n\n                                  OR\n\n                        SCIENCE AND THE FUTURE\n\n\nAs I sit down to write these pages I can see before me two scenes from\nmy experience of the late war. The first is a glimpse of a forgotten\nbattle of 1915. It has a curious suggestion of a rather bad cinema\nfilm. Through a blur of dust and fumes there appear, quite suddenly,\ngreat black and yellow masses of smoke which seem to be tearing up\nthe surface of the earth and disintegrating the works of man with an\nalmost visible hatred. These form the chief parts of the picture, but\nsomewhere in the middle distance one can see a few irrelevant looking\nhuman figures, and soon there are fewer. It is hard to believe that\nthese are the protagonists in the battle. One would rather choose those\nhuge substantive oily black masses which are so much more conspicuous,\nand suppose that the men are in reality their servants, and playing an\ninglorious, subordinate, and fatal part in the combat. It is possible,\nafter all, that this view is correct.\n\nHad I been privileged to watch a battle three years later, the general\naspect would have been very similar, but there would have been fewer\nmen and more shell-bursts. There would probably, however, have been\none very significant addition. The men would have been running, with\nmad terror in their eyes, from gigantic steel slugs, which were\ndeliberately, relentlessly, and successfully pursuing them.\n\nThe other picture is of three Europeans in India looking at a great new\nstar in the milky way. These were apparently all of the guests at a\nlarge dance who were interested in such matters. Amongst those who were\nat all competent to form views as to the origin of this cosmoclastic\nexplosion, the most popular theory attributed it to a collision between\ntwo stars, or a star and a nebula. There seem, however, to be at least\ntwo possible alternatives to this hypothesis. Perhaps it was the last\njudgment of some inhabited world, perhaps a too successful experiment\nin induced radio-activity on the part of some of the dwellers there.\nAnd perhaps also these two hypotheses are identical, and what we were\nwatching that evening was the detonation of a world on which too many\nmen came out to look at the stars when they should have been dancing.\n\nThese two scenes suggest, very briefly, a part of the case against\nscience. Has mankind released from the womb of matter a Demogorgon\nwhich is already beginning to turn against him, and may at any\nmoment hurl him into the bottomless void? Or is Samuel Butler\u2019s even\nmore horrible vision correct, in which man becomes a mere parasite\nof machinery, an appendage to the reproductive system of huge and\ncomplicated engines which will successively usurp his activities,\nand end by ousting him from the mastery of this planet? Is the\nmachine-minder engaged on repetition-work the goal and ideal to which\nhumanity is tending? Perhaps a survey of the present trend of science\nmay throw some light on these questions.\n\nBut first we may consider for a moment, the question of whether there\nis any hope of stopping the progress of scientific research. It is\nafter all a very recent form of human activity, and a sufficiently\nuniversal protest of mankind would be able to arrest it even now.\nIn the middle ages public opinion made it so dangerous as to be\npractically impossible, and I am inclined to suspect that Mr.\nChesterton, for example, would not be averse to a repetition of this\nstate of things. The late M. Joseph Reinach, an able and not wholly\nilliberal thinker, publicly advocated it.\n\nI think, however, that so long as our present economic and national\nsystems continue, scientific research has little to fear. Capitalism,\nthough it may not always give the scientific worker a living wage, will\nalways protect him, as being one of the geese which produce golden eggs\nfor its table. And competitive nationalism, even if war is wholly or\nlargely prevented, will hardly forego the national advantages accruing\nfrom scientific research.\n\nIf we look at the other most probable alternative the prospect is\nlittle more hopeful. In this country the labour party alone among\npolitical organizations includes the fostering of research in its\nofficial programme. Indeed as far as biological research is concerned\nlabour may prove a better master than capitalism, and there can be\nlittle doubt that it would be equally friendly to physical and chemical\nresearch if these came to lead immediately to shortened hours rather\nthan to unemployment. In particular there is perhaps reason to think\nthat that form of sentimentalism which hampers medical research in this\ncountry by legislation would be less likely to flourish in a robust\nand selfish labour party of the Australian type than in parties whose\nmembers enjoy the leisure which seems necessary to the development of\nsuch emotional luxuries.\n\nIt is of course possible that civilisation may collapse throughout the\nworld as it has done in parts of Russia, and science with it, but such\nan event would in all probability, only postpone the problem for a few\nthousand years. And even in Russia we must not forget that first-rate\nscientific research is still being carried on.\n\nThe possibility has been suggested--I do not know how seriously--that\nthe progress of science may cease through lack of new problems for\ninvestigation. Mr. Chesterton in _The Napoleon of Notting Hill_,\na book written fifteen years or so ago, prophesied that hansom-cabs\nwould still be in existence a hundred years hence owing to a cessation\nof invention. Within six years there was a hansom-cab in a museum, and\nnow that romantic but tardy vehicle is a memory like the trireme, the\nvelocipede, and the 1907 Voisin biplane. I do not suggest that Mr.\nChesterton be dragged--a heavier Hector--behind the last hansom-cab,\nbut I do contend that, in so far as he claims to be a prophet rather\nthan the voice of one crying in the wilderness, he may be regarded as\nnegligible for the purpose of our discussion. I shall try shortly to\nshow how far from complete are any branches of science at the present\ntime.\n\nBut first a word on Mr. H. G. Wells might not be out of place. The very\nmention of the future suggests him. There are two points which I wish\nto make about Mr. Wells. In the first place, considered as a serious\nprophet, as opposed to a fantastic romancer, he is singularly modest.\nIn 1902, for example, in a book called \u201cAnticipations,\u201d he gave it as\nhis personal opinion that by 1950 there would be heavier than air\nflying machines capable of practical use in war. That, said he, was his\nown view, though he was well aware that it would excite considerable\nridicule. _I propose in this paper to make no prophecies rasher than\nthe above._\n\nThe second and more important point is that he is a generation\nbehind the time. When his scientific ideas were formed, flying and\nradiotelegraphy, for example, were scientific problems, and the centre\nof scientific interest still lay in physics and chemistry. Now these\nare commercial problems, and I believe that the centre of scientific\ninterest lies in biology. A generation hence it may be elsewhere, and\nthe views expressed in this paper will appear as modest, conservative,\nand unimaginative as do many of those of Mr. Wells to-day.\n\nI will only touch very briefly on the future of physics, as the\nsubject is inevitably technical. At present physical theory is in a\nstate of profound suspense. This is primarily due to Einstein--the\ngreatest Jew since Jesus. I have no doubt that Einstein\u2019s name will\nstill be remembered and revered when Lloyd George, Foch, and William\nHohenzollern share with Charlie Chaplin that ineluctable oblivion which\nawaits the uncreative mind. I trust that I may be excused if I trespass\nfrom the strict subject of my theme to add my quota to the rather\nnumerous misstatements of Einstein\u2019s views which have appeared during\nthe last few years.\n\nEver since the time of Berkeley it has been customary for the majority\nof metaphysicians to proclaim the ideality of Time, of Space, or\nof both. But they soon made it clear that in spite of this, time\nwould continue to wait for no man, and space to separate lovers.\nThe only practical consequence that they generally drew was that\ntheir own ethical and political views were somehow inherent in the\nstructure of the universe. The experimental proof or disproof of such\ndeductions is difficult, and--if the late war may be regarded as an\nexperimental disproof of certain of Hegel\u2019s political tenets--costly\nand unsatisfactory.\n\nEinstein, so far from deducing a new decalogue, has contented himself\nwith deducing the consequences to space and time themselves of their\nideality. These are mostly too small to be measurable, but some, such\nas the deflection of light by the sun\u2019s gravitational field, are\nsusceptible of verification, and have been verified. The majority of\nscientific men are now being constrained by the evidence of these\nexperiments to adopt a very extreme form of Kantian idealism. The\nKantian _Ding-an-sich_ is an eternal four-dimensional manifold,\nwhich we perceive as space and time, but what we regard as space and\nwhat as time is more or less fortuitous.\n\nIt is perhaps interesting to speculate on the practical consequences\nof Einstein\u2019s discovery. I do not doubt that he will be believed. A\nprophet who can give signs in the heavens is always believed. No one\never seriously questioned Newton\u2019s theory after the return of Halley\u2019s\ncomet. Einstein has told us that space, time, and matter are shadows\nof the fifth dimension, and the heavens have declared his glory. In\nconsequence Kantian idealism will become the basal working hypothesis\nof the physicist and finally of all educated men, just as materialism\ndid after Newton\u2019s day. We may not call ourselves materialists, but\nwe do interpret the activities of the moon, the Thames, influenza,\nand aeroplanes in terms of matter. Our ancestors did not, nor, in\nall probability, will our descendants. The materialism (whether\nconscious or subconscious does not very much matter) of the last\nfew generations has led to various results of practical importance,\nsuch as sanitation, Marxian socialism, and the right of an accused\nperson to give evidence on his or her own behalf. The reign of Kantian\nidealism as the basal working hypothesis, first of physics, and then\nof every-day life, will in all probability last for some centuries. At\nthe end of that time a similar step in advance will be taken. Einstein\nshowed that experience cannot be interpreted in terms of space and\ntime. This was a well-known fact, but so long as space and time did not\nbreak down in their own special sphere, that of explaining the facts\nof motion, physicists continued to believe in them, or at any rate,\nwhat was much more important, to think in terms of them for practical\npurposes.\n\nA time will however come (as I believe) when physiology will invade\nand destroy mathematical physics, as the latter have destroyed\ngeometry. The basic metaphysical working hypothesis of science and\npractical life will then, I think, be something like Bergsonian\nactivism. I do not for one moment suggest that this or any other\nmetaphysical system has any claims whatever to finality.\n\nMeanwhile we are in for a few centuries during which many practical\nactivities will probably be conducted on a basis, not of materialism,\nbut of Kantian idealism. How will this affect our manners, morals and\npolitics? Frankly I do not know, though I think the effect will be as\ngreat as that of Newton\u2019s work, which created most of the intellectual\nforces of the 18th century. The Condorcets, Benthams, and Marxs of\nthe future will I think be as ruthlessly critical of the metaphysics\nand ethics of their times as were their predecessors, but not quite\nso sure of their own; they will lack a certain heaviness of touch\nwhich we may note in Utilitarianism and Socialism. They will recognise\nthat perhaps in ethics as in physics, there are so to speak fourth\nand fifth dimensions that show themselves by effects which, like\nthe perturbations of the planet Mercury, are hard to detect even in\none generation, but yet perhaps in the course of ages are quite as\nimportant as the three-dimensional phenomena.\n\nIf the quantum hypothesis is generally adopted even more radical\nalterations in our thinking will be necessary. But I feel it premature\neven to suggest their direction in the present unsatisfactory state\nof quantum mechanics. It may be that as Poincare (the other Poincare)\nsuggested we shall be forced to conceive of all change as occurring in\na series of clicks, and all space as consisting of discrete points.\nHowever this may be it is safe to say that a better knowledge of\nthe properties of radiation will permit us to produce it in a more\nsatisfactory manner than is at present possible. Almost all our\npresent sources of light are hot bodies, 95% of whose radiation is\ninvisible. To light a lamp as a source of light is about as wasteful\nof energy as to burn down one\u2019s house to roast one\u2019s pork. It is a\nfairly safe prophecy that in 50 years light will cost about a fiftieth\nof its present price, and there will be no more night in our cities.\nThe alternation of day and night is a check on the freedom of human\nactivity which must go the way of other spatial and temporal checks. In\nthe long run I think that all that applied physics can do for us is to\nabolish these checks. It enables us to possess more, travel more, and\ncommunicate more. I shall not attempt to predict in detail the future\ndevelopments of transport and communication. They are only limited by\nthe velocity of light. We are working towards a condition when any two\npersons on earth will be able to be completely present to one another\nin not more than 1-24 of a second. We shall never reach it, but that is\nthe limit which we shall approach indefinitely.\n\nDevelopments in this direction are tending to bring mankind more and\nmore together, to render life more and more complex, artificial, and\nrich in possibilities--to increase indefinitely man\u2019s powers for good\nand evil.\n\nBut there are two prerequisites for all progress of this kind, namely\ncontinuous supplies of human and mechanical power. As industries become\nmore and more closely interwoven, so that a dislocation of any one will\nparalyse a dozen others (and that is the position towards which we are\nrapidly moving), the ideal of the leaders of industry, under no matter\nwhat economic system, will be directed less and less to the indefinite\nincrease of production in the intervals between such dislocations,\nand more and more to stable and regular production, even at the cost\nof reduction of profits and output while the industry is proceeding\nnormally. It is quite possible that capitalism itself may demand that\nthe control of certain key industries be handed over completely to the\nworkers in those industries, simply in order to reduce the number of\nsporadic strikes in them. And as industrial progress continues an ever\nlarger number--perhaps the majority--of industries will become key\nindustries. The solution may be entirely different--we may well see\na return to feudalism. But the probability is that the problem will\nbe solved. This view may seem optimistic, but it is more likely than\nthe alternative thesis which may be briefly stated as follows: \u201c_No\nhuman society will ever succeed in producing a stable organization\nin which the majority of the population is employed otherwise than in\nagriculture, animal-rearing, hunting or fishing._\u201d It took some\nthousands of years to produce the stable agricultural society which\nforms the basis of European life and whose morals we are too apt to\nregard as eternal truths. It should take a shorter time to evolve a\nstable industrial society. The people that do so will inherit the\nearth. In sum, I believe that the progress of science will ultimately\nmake industrial injustice as self-destructive as it is now making\ninternational injustice.\n\nAs for the supplies of mechanical power, it is axiomatic that the\nexhaustion of our coal and oil-fields is a matter of centuries only.\nAs it has often been assumed that their exhaustion would lead to the\ncollapse of industrial civilization, I may perhaps be pardoned if I\ngive some of the reasons which lead me to doubt this proposition.\n\nWater-power is not, I think, a probable substitute, on account of\nits small quantity, seasonal fluctuation, and sporadic distribution.\nIt may perhaps, however, shift the centre of industrial gravity to\nwell-watered mountainous tracts such as the Himalayan foothills,\nBritish Columbia, and Armenia. Ultimately we shall have to tap those\nintermittent but inexhaustible sources of power, the wind and the\nsunlight. The problem is simply one of storing their energy in a form\nas convenient as coal or petrol. If a windmill in one\u2019s back garden\ncould produce a hundredweight of coal daily (and it can produce its\nequivalent in energy), our coalmines would shut down to-morrow. Even\nto-morrow a cheap, foolproof, and durable storage battery may be\ninvented, which will enable us to transform the intermittent energy of\nthe wind into continuous electric power.\n\nPersonally, I think that four hundred years hence the power question in\nEngland may be solved somewhat as follows: The country will be covered\nwith rows of metallic windmills working electric motors which in their\nturn supply current at a very high voltage to great electric mains. At\nsuitable distances, there will be great power stations where during\nwindy weather the surplus power will be used for the electrolytic\ndecomposition of water into oxygen and hydrogen. These gases will be\nliquefied, and stored in vats, vacuum jacketed reservoirs, probably\nsunk in the ground. If these reservoirs are sufficiently large, the\nloss of liquid due to leakage inwards of heat will not be great; thus\nthe proportion evaporating daily from a reservoir 100 yards square by\n60 feet deep would not be 1-1000 of that lost from a tank measuring\ntwo feet each way. In times of calm, the gases will be recombined in\nexplosion motors working dynamos which produce electrical energy once\nmore, or more probably in oxidation cells. Liquid hydrogen is weight\nfor weight the most efficient known method of storing energy, as it\ngives about three times as much heat per pound as petrol. On the\nother hand it is very light, and bulk for bulk has only one-third of\nthe efficiency of petrol. This will not, however, detract from its use\nin aeroplanes, where weight is more important than bulk. These huge\nreservoirs of liquefied gases will enable wind energy to be stored,\nso that it can be expended for industry, transportation, heating, and\nlighting, as desired. The initial costs will be very considerable, but\nthe running expenses less than those of our present system. Among its\nmore obvious advantages will be the fact that energy will be as cheap\nin one part of the country as another, so that industry will be greatly\ndecentralized; and that no smoke or ash will be produced.\n\nIt is on some such lines as these, I think, that the problem will be\nsolved. It is essentially a practical problem, and the exhaustion of\nour coalfields will furnish the necessary stimulus for its solution.\nEven now perhaps Italy might achieve economic independence by the\nexpenditure of a few million pounds upon research on the lines\nindicated. I may add in parenthesis that, on thermodynamical grounds\nwhich I can hardly summarize shortly, I do not much believe in the\ncommercial possibility of induced radio-activity.\n\nBefore I turn to the principal part of my subject I should like to\nconsider very briefly the influence on art and literature of our\ngradual conquest of space and time. I think that the blame for the\ndecay of certain arts rests primarily on the defective education of\nthe artists. An artist must understand his subject matter. At present\nnot a single competent poet and very few painters and etchers outside\nthe Glasgow School understand industrial life, and I believe that\nthere is only one architect of any real originality who understands\nthe possibilities of ferro-concrete. I do not know his name, but he\nproduced in Soissons before the war a market-place with the dignity\nand daring of an ancient Egyptian temple. If I knew that he had been\nentrusted with the rebuilding of Soissons, I could not regret its\ndestruction.\n\nNow if we want poets to interpret physical science as Milton and\nShelley did (Shelley and Keats were the last English poets who were\nat all up-to-date in their chemical knowledge), we must see that our\npossible poets are instructed, as their masters were, in science and\neconomics. I am absolutely convinced that science is vastly more\nstimulating to the imagination than are the classics, but the products\nof this stimulus do not normally see the light because scientific men\nas a class are devoid of any perception of literary form. When they\ncan express themselves we get a Butler or a Norman Douglas. Not until\nour poets are once more drawn from the educated classes (I speak as\na scientist), will they appeal to the average man by showing him the\nbeauty in his own life as Homer and Virgil appealed to the street\nurchins who scrawled their verses on the walls of Pompeii.\n\nAnd if we must educate our poets and artists in science, we must\neducate our masters, labour and capital, in art. Personally I believe\nthat we may have good hopes of both. The capitalist\u2019s idea of art in\nindustry at present tends to limit itself to painting green and white\nstripes on the front of his factories in certain cases. This is a\nprimitive type of decoration, but it has, I think, the root of the\nmatter in it. Before long someone may discover that frescoes inside a\nfactory increase the average efficiency of the worker 1.03% and art\nwill become a commercial proposition once more. Even now it is being\ndiscovered that artistic advertising often pays. Similarly I do not\ndoubt that labour will come to find that it cannot live by bread (or\nshall we say bread and beer) alone. But it can hardly be expected to\nmake this discovery until it is assured of its supply of bread and beer.\n\nApplied chemistry has introduced into human life no radical novelty\nof the importance of the heat-engine or the telegraph. It has vastly\nincreased the production of various types of substance the most\nimportant being metals. But there were explosives, dyes, and drugs\nbefore chemistry was a science, and its progress along present lines\nwill mainly alter life in a quantitative manner. Perhaps the biggest\nproblems before it in metallurgy are the utilization of low-grade iron\nores, and the production of aluminium from clay, which contains up to\n24% of that metal. I do not think that even when this is accomplished\naluminium will oust iron and steel as they ousted bronze and flint,\nbut it and its alloys will certainly take the second, and possibly\nthe first place as industrial metals. There is just a hope, though I\nfear little more, that a large-scale production of perfume may form\nthe basis of a re-education of our rather rudimentary sense of smell,\nbut the most interesting possibilities of chemical invention are very\nclearly in biological chemistry, and for the following reasons.\n\nDesirable substances fall on the whole into two classes. The first are\ndesirable on account of their physical or chemical properties, for\nexample iron, wood or glass, which we use as a part of systems such\nas fires, houses, or razors, which procure us certain benefits. The\nsecond are desirable on account of their physiological properties.\nSuch substances include foods, drinks, tobacco, and drugs. Colours\nand scents occupy an intermediate position. The value of this second\nclass of substances rests on a quite special relationship to the human\norganism which depends in the most intimate way on the constitution of\nthe latter, and has not in general been at all fully explained in terms\nof physics and chemistry. For example fires can be made of coal or peat\ninstead of wood, but no other chemical substance has the same effect as\nwater or alcohol. So unless a chemical substance has new physiological\nproperties its production will merely serve to improve or make possible\nsome appliance whose use lies within the sphere of applied physics.\nWithin historical time two and only two substances of the second\nclass have come into universal use in Europe, namely caffeine and\nnicotine, which were introduced into this country in the sixteenth\nand seventeenth centuries. There are others of immense importance,\nsuch as chloroform and quinine, but their use is not universal. But\ncoffee, tea, and tobacco, with alcohol, are as much a part of normal\nlife as food and water. There is no reason to suppose that the list of\nsuch substances is exhausted. During the war Embden[1] the professor\nof physiology in Frankfurt University discovered that a dose of about\n7 grams of acid sodium phosphate increases a man\u2019s capacity for\nprolonged muscular work by about 20%, and probably aids in prolonged\nmental work. It can be taken over very lengthy periods. A group of\ncoal-miners took it for nine months on end with very great effect on\ntheir output. It has no after-effects like those of alcohol, and one\ncannot take a serious overdose as it merely acts as a purgative. (They\ngave certain Stosstruppen too much!) Thousands of people in Germany\ntake it habitually. It is possible that it may become as normal a\nbeverage as coffee or tea. It costs 1/9 per pound, or \u2153d. per dose.\n\nThe vast majority of chemical substances with physiological properties\nare unsuited for daily use like castor oil, or dangerous like morphine;\nprobably none are without bad effects in certain cases. Those which\nare susceptible of daily use are of the utmost social importance.\nTobacco has slight but definite effects on the character. Coffee-houses\nin London in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and cafes in\nmodern Europe were and are civilizing influences of incalculable value.\nBut these substances are profoundly obnoxious to a certain type of\nmind. It would perhaps be fantastic to suggest that Sir Walter Raleigh\nowed his death in part to his sovereign\u2019s objection to tobacco. But if\nhe is not its protomartyr it is at least probable that more men have\ndied for tobacco smoking at the hands of Sikhs, Senussis, and Wahabis,\nwhose religions forbid this practice, than died under the Roman empire\nfor professing Christianity. Should it ever be generally realised that\ntemperance is a mean we may expect that mankind will ultimately have at\nits disposal a vast array of substances like wine, coffee, and tobacco,\nwhose intelligent use can add to the amenity of life and promote the\nexpression of man\u2019s higher faculties.\n\nBut before that day comes chemistry will be applied to the production\nof a still more important group of physiologically active substances,\nnamely foods. The facts about food are rather curious. Everyone\nknows that food is ultimately produced by plants, though we may get\nit at second or third hand if we eat animals or their products. But\nthe average plant turns most of its sugar not into starch which is\ndigestible, but into cellulose which is not, but forms its woody\nskeleton. The hoofed animals have dealt with this problem in their own\nway, by turning their bellies into vast hives of bacteria that attack\ncellulose, and on whose by-products they live. We have got to do the\nsame, but outside our bodies. It may be done on chemical lines. Irvine\nhas obtained a 95% yield of sugar from cellulose, but at a prohibitive\ncost. Or we may use micro-organisms, but in any case within the next\ncentury sugar and starch will be about as cheap as sawdust. Many of\nour foodstuffs, including the proteins, we shall probably build up\nfrom simpler sources such as coal and atmospheric nitrogen. I should\nbe inclined to allow 120 years, but not much more, before a completely\nsatisfactory diet can be produced in this way on a commercial scale.\n\nThis will mean that agriculture will become a luxury, and that mankind\nwill be completely urbanized. Personally I do not regret the probable\ndisappearance of the agricultural labourer in favour of the factory\nworker, who seems to me a higher type of person from most points of\nview. Human progress in historical time has been the progress of cities\ndragging a reluctant countryside in their wake. Synthetic food will\nsubstitute the flower garden and the factory for the dunghill and the\nslaughterhouse, and make the city at last self-sufficient.\n\n  _There\u2019s many a strong farmer whose heart would break in two\n  If he could see the townland that we are riding to.\n  Boughs have their fruit and blossom at all times of the year,\n  Rivers are running over with red beer and brown beer,\n  An old man plays the bagpipes in a golden and silver wood,\n  Queens, their eyes blue like the ice, are dancing in a crowd._\n\nI should have liked had time allowed to have added my quota to the\nspeculations which have been made with regard to inter-planetary\ncommunication. Whether this is possible I can form no conjecture; that\nit will be attempted I have no doubt whatever.\n\nWith regard to the application of biology to human life, the average\nprophet appears to content himself with considerable if rather\nrudimentary progress in medicine and surgery, some improvements in\ndomestic plants and animals, and possibly the introduction of a little\neugenics. The eugenic official, a compound, it would appear, of the\npoliceman, the priest and the procurer, is to hale us off at suitable\nintervals to the local temple of Venus Genetrix with a partner chosen,\none gathers, by something of the nature of a glorified medical board.\nTo this prophecy I should reply that it proceeds from a type of mind as\nlacking in originality as in knowledge of human nature. Marriage \u201cby\nnumbers\u201d, so to speak, was a comparatively novel idea when proposed by\nPlato 2,300 years ago, but it has already actually been practised in\nvarious places, notably among the subjects of the Jesuits in Paraguay.\nIt is moreover likely, as we shall see, that the ends proposed by the\neugenist will be attained in a very different manner.\n\nBut before we proceed to prophecy I should like to turn back to the\npast and examine very briefly the half dozen or so important biological\ninventions which have already been made. By a biological invention I\nmean the establishment of a new relationship between man and other\nanimals or plants, or between different human beings, provided that\nsuch relationship is one which comes primarily under the domain of\nbiology rather than physics, psychology or ethics. Of the biological\ninventions of the past, four were made before the dawn of history. I\nrefer to the domestication of animals, the domestication of plants,\nthe domestication of fungi for the production of alcohol, and to a\nfourth invention, which I believe was of more ultimate and far-reaching\nimportance than any of these, since it altered the path of sexual\nselection, focussed the attention of man as a lover upon woman\u2019s face\nand breasts, and changed our idea of beauty from the steatopygous\nHottentot to the modern European, from the Venus of Brassempouy to the\nVenus of Milo. There are certain races which have not yet made this\nlast invention. And in our own day two more have been made, namely\nbactericide and the artificial control of conception.\n\nThe first point that we may notice about these inventions is that they\nhave all had a profound emotional and ethical effect. Of the four\nearlier there is not one which has not formed the basis of a religion.\nI do not know what strange god will have the hardihood to adopt Charles\nBradlaugh and Annie Besant in the place of Triptolemus and Noah,\nbut one may remark that it is impossible to keep religion out of any\ndiscussion of the practices which they popularized.\n\nThe second point is perhaps harder to express. The chemical or physical\ninventor is always a Prometheus. There is no great invention, from\nfire to flying, which has not been hailed as an insult to some god.\nBut if every physical and chemical invention is a blasphemy, every\nbiological invention is a perversion. There is hardly one which, on\nfirst being brought to the notice of an observer from any nation which\nhad not previously heard of their existence, would not appear to him as\nindecent and unnatural.\n\nConsider so simple and time-honoured a process as the milking of a\ncow. The milk which should have been an intimate and almost sacramental\nbond between mother and child is elicited by the deft fingers of a\nmilk-maid, and drunk, cooked, or even allowed to rot into cheese. We\nhave only to imagine ourselves as drinking any of its other secretions,\nin order to realise the radical indecency of our relation to the cow.[2]\n\nNo less disgusting a priori is the process of corruption which yields\nour wine and beer. But in actual fact the processes of milking and of\nthe making and drinking beer appear to us profoundly natural; they\nhave even tended to develop a ritual of their own whose infraction\nnowadays has a certain air of impropriety. There is something slightly\ndisgusting in the idea of milking a cow electrically or drinking beer\nout of tea-cups. And all this of course applies much more strongly to\nthe sexual act.\n\nI fancy that the sentimental interest attaching to Prometheus has\nunduly distracted our attention from the far more interesting figure\nof Daedalus. It is with infinite relief that amidst a welter of heroes\narmed with gorgon\u2019s heads or protected by Stygian baptisms the student\nof Greek mythology comes across the first modern man. Beginning as a\nrealistic sculptor (he was the first to produce statues whose feet were\nseparated) it was natural that he should proceed to the construction of\nan image of Aphrodite whose limbs were activated by quicksilver. After\nthis his interest inevitably turned to biological problems, and it is\nsafe to say that posterity has never equalled his only recorded success\nin experimental genetics. Had the housing and feeding of the Minotaur\nbeen less expensive it is probable that Daedalus would have anticipated\nMendel. But Minos held that a labyrinth and an annual provision of 50\nyouths and 50 virgins were excessive as an endowment for research, and\nin order to escape from his ruthless economies Daedalus was forced\nto invent the art of flying. Minos pursued him to Sicily and was\nslain there. Save for his valuable invention of glue, little else is\nknown of Daedalus. But it is most significant that, although he was\nresponsible for the death of Zeus\u2019 son Minos he was neither smitten\nby a thunderbolt, chained to a rock, nor pursued by furies. Still\nless did any of the rather numerous visitors to Hades discover him\neither in Elysium or Tartarus. We can hardly imagine him as a member\nof the throng of shades who besieged Charon\u2019s ferry like sheep at a\ngap. He was the first to demonstrate that the scientific worker is not\nconcerned with gods.\n\nThe unconscious mind of the early Greeks, who focussed in this amazing\nfigure the dim traditions of Minoan science, was presumably aware of\nthis fact. The most monstrous and unnatural action in all human legend\nwas unpunished in this world or the next. Even the death of Icarus must\nhave weighed lightly with a man who had already been banished from\nAthens for the murder of his nephew. But if he escaped the vengeance of\nthe gods he has been exposed to the universal and agelong reprobation\nof a humanity to whom biological inventions are abhorrent, with one\nvery significant exception. Socrates was proud to claim him as an\nancestor.\n\nThe biological invention then tends to begin as a perversion and end\nas a ritual supported by unquestioned beliefs and prejudices. Even now\nsurgical cleanliness is developing its rites and its dogmas, which, it\nmay be remarked, are accepted most religiously by women. With the above\nfacts in your minds I would ask you to excuse what at first sight might\nappear improbable or indecent in any speculations which appear below,\nand to dismiss from your minds the belief that biology will consist\nmerely in physical and chemical discoveries as applied to men, animals\nand plants.\n\nI say advisedly \u201cwill consist\u201d, for we are at present almost completely\nignorant of biology, a fact which often escapes the notice of\nbiologists, and renders them too presumptuous in their estimates of\nthe present position of their science, too modest in their claims for\nits future. If for example we take a typical case of applied biology\nsuch as the detection and destruction of the cholera bacillus, we\nfind a great deal of science involved, but the only purely biological\nprinciple is the very important but not very profound one that some\nbacteria kill some men. The really scientific parts of the process\nare the optical and chemical methods involved in the magnification,\nstaining and killing of the bacilli. When on the other hand we come to\nimmunization to typhoid we find certain purely biological principles\ninvolved which are neither simple nor at all completely understood.\n\nActually biological theory consists of some ancient but not very\neasily stated truths about organisms in general, due largely to\nAristotle, Hippocrates and Harvey, a few great principles such as\nthose formulated by Darwin, Mayer, Claude Bernard, and Mendel, and a\nvast mass of facts about individual organisms and their parts which are\nstill awaiting adequate generalization.\n\nDarwin\u2019s results are beginning to be appreciated, with alarming effects\non certain types of religion, those of Weismann and Mendel will be\ndigested in the course of the present century, and are going to affect\npolitical and philosophical theories almost equally profoundly. I\nneed hardly say that these latter results deal with the question of\nreproduction and heredity. We may expect, moreover, as time goes on,\nthat a series of shocks of the type of Darwinism will be given to\nestablished opinions on all sorts of subjects. One cannot suggest\nin detail what these shocks will be, but since the opinions on which\nthey will impinge are deep-seated and irrational, they will come upon\nus and our descendants with the same air of presumption and indecency\nwith which the view that we are descended from monkeys came to our\ngrandfathers. But owing to man\u2019s fortunate capacity for thinking in\nwatertight (or rather idea-tight) compartments, they will probably\nnot have immediate and disruptive effects upon society any more than\nDarwinism had.\n\nFar more profound will be the effect of the practical applications\nof biology. I believe that the progress of medicine has had almost,\nif not quite, as deep an effect on society in Western Europe as the\nindustrial revolution. Apart from the important social consequences\nwhich have flowed from the partial substitution of the doctor for the\npriest, its net result has been that whereas four hundred years ago\nmost people died in childhood, they now live on an average, (apart from\nthe late war), until forty-five. Bad as our urban conditions often are,\nthere is not a slum in the country which has a third of the infantile\ndeath-rate of the royal family in the middle ages. Largely as a result\nof this religion has come to lay less and less stress on a good death,\nand more and more on a good life, and its whole outlook has gradually\nchanged in consequence. Death has receded so far into the background of\nour normal thoughts that when we came into somewhat close contact with\nit during the war most of us failed completely to take it seriously.\n\nSimilarly institutions which were based on short lives have almost\nwholly collapsed. For example the English land system postulated that\nthe landowner should die aged about forty, and be succeeded by his\neldest son, aged about twenty. The son had spent most of his life on\nthe estate, and had few interests outside it. He managed it at least\nas well as anyone else could have done. Nowadays the father dodders on\ntill about eighty, and is generally incompetent for ten years before\nhis death. His son succeeds him at the age of fifty or so, by which\ntime he may be a fairly competent colonel or stockbroker, but cannot\nhope to learn the art of managing an estate. In consequence he either\nhands it over to an agent who is deprived of initiative and often\ncorrupt, or runs it unscientifically, gets a low return, and ascribes\nto Bolshevism what he should really lay at the door of vaccination.\n\nBut to return, if I may use the expression, to the future, I am\ngoing to suggest a few obvious developments which seem probable in\nthe present state of biological science, without assuming any great\nnew generalizations of the type of Darwinism. I have the very best\nprecedents for introducing a myth at this point, so perhaps I may be\nexcused if I reproduce some extracts from an essay on the influence of\nbiology on history during the 20th century which will (it is hoped) be\nread by a rather stupid undergraduate member of this university to his\nsupervisor during his first term 150 years hence.\n\n\u201cAs early as the first decade of the twentieth century we find a\nconscious attempt at the application of biology to politics in the\nso-called eugenic movement\u201d. A number of earnest persons, having\ndiscovered the existence of biology, attempted to apply it in its then\nvery crude condition to the production of a race of super-men, and in\ncertain countries managed to carry a good deal of legislation. They\nappear to have managed to prevent the transmission of a good deal of\nsyphilis, insanity, and the like, and they certainly succeeded in\nproducing the most violent opposition and hatred amongst the classes\nwhom they somewhat gratuitously regarded as undesirable parents.\n(There was even a rebellion in Nebraska). However, they undoubtedly\nprepared public opinion for what was to come, and so far served a\nuseful purpose. Far more important was the progress in medicine which\npractically abolished infectious diseases in those countries which were\nprepared to tolerate the requisite amount of state interference in\nprivate life, and finally, after the league\u2019s ordinance of 1958, all\nover the world; though owing to Hindu opposition, parts of India were\nstill quite unhealthy up to 1980 or so.\n\nBut from a wider point of view the most important biological work in\nthe first third of the century was in experimental zoology and botany.\nWhen we consider that in 1912 Morgan had located several Mendelian\nfactors in the nucleus of Drosophila, and modified its sex-ratio,\nwhile Marmorek had taught a harmless bacillus to kill guinea-pigs, and\nfinally in 1913 Brachet had grown rabbit embryos in serum for some\ndays, it is remarkable how little the scientific workers of that time,\nand a fortiori the general public, seem to have foreseen the practical\nbearing of such results.\n\nAs a matter of fact it was not until 1940 that Selkovski invented the\npurple alga _Porphyrococcus fixator_ which was to have so great\nan effect on the world\u2019s history. In the 50 years before this date the\nworld\u2019s average wheat yield per hectare had been approximately doubled,\npartly by the application of various chemical manures, but most of\nall by the results of systematic crossing work with different races;\nthere was however little prospect of further advance on any of these\nlines. _Porphyrococcus_ is an enormously efficient nitrogen-fixer\nand will grow in almost any climate where there are water and traces\nof potash and phosphates in the soil, obtaining its nitrogen from\nthe air. It has about the effect in four days that a crop of vetches\nwould have had in a year. It could not, of course have been produced\nin the course of nature, as its immediate ancestors would only grow\nin artificial media and could not have survived outside a laboratory.\nWherever nitrogen was the principal limiting factor to plant growth\nit doubled the yield of wheat, and quadrupled the value of grass land\nfor grazing purposes. The enormous fall in food prices and the ruin\nof purely agricultural states was of course one of the chief causes\nof the disastrous events of 1943 and 1944. The food glut was also\ngreatly accentuated when in 1942 the Q strain of _Porphyrococcus_\nescaped into the sea and multiplied with enormous rapidity. Indeed\nfor two months the surface of the tropical Atlantic set to a jelly,\nwith disastrous results to the weather of Europe. When certain of the\nplankton organisms developed ferments capable of digesting it the\nincrease of the fish population of the seas was so great as to make\nfish the universal good that it is now, and to render even England\nself-supporting in respect of food. So great was the prosperity in\nEngland that in that year the coal-miner\u2019s union entered its first\nhorse for the Derby (a horse-race which still took place annually at\nthat time).\n\nIt was of course as the result of its invasion by _Porphyrococcus_\nthat the sea assumed the intense purple colour which seems so natural\nto us, but which so distressed the more aesthetically minded of our\ngreat grand-parents who witnessed the change. It is certainly curious\nto us to read of the sea as having been green or blue. I need not\ndetail the work of Ferguson and Rahmatullah who in 1957 produced the\nlichen which has bound the drifting sand of the world\u2019s deserts (for it\nwas merely a continuation of that of Selkovski), nor yet the story of\nhow the agricultural countries dealt with their unemployment by huge\nsocialistic windpower schemes.\n\nIt was in 1951 that Dupont and Schwarz produced the first ectogenetic\nchild. As early as 1901 Heape had transferred embryo rabbits from one\nfemale to another, in 1925 Haldane had grown embryonic rats in serum\nfor ten days, but had failed to carry the process to its conclusion,\nand it was not till 1940 that Clark succeeded with the pig, using\nKehlmann\u2019s solution as medium. Dupont and Schwarz obtained a fresh\novary from a woman who was the victim of an aeroplane accident, and\nkept it living in their medium for five years. They obtained several\neggs from it and fertilized them successfully, but the problem of\nthe nutrition and support of the emo was more difficult, and was\nonly solved in the fourth year. Now that the technique is fully\ndeveloped, we can take an ovary from a woman, and keep it growing in\na suitable fluid for as long as twenty years, producing a fresh ovum\neach month, of which 90 per cent can be fertilized, and the embryos\ngrown successfully for nine months, and then brought out into the\nair. Schwarz never got such good results, but the news of his first\nsuccess caused an unprecedented sensation throughout the entire\nworld, for the birth-rate was already less than the death-rate in most\ncivilised countries. France was the first country to adopt ectogenesis\nofficially, and by 1968 was producing 60,000 children annually by this\nmethod. In most countries the opposition was far stronger, and was\nintensified by the Papal Bull \u201cNunquam prius audito\u201d, and the similar\nfetwa of the Khalif, both of which appeared in 1960.\n\nAs we know ectogenesis is now universal, and in this country less\nthan 30 per cent of children are now born of woman. The effect on\nhuman psychology and social life of the separation of sexual love and\nreproduction which was begun in the 19th century and completed in\nthe 20th is by no means wholly satisfactory. The old family life had\ncertainly a good deal to commend it, and although nowadays we bring\non lactation in women by injection of placentin as a routine, and\nthus conserve much of what was best in the former instinctive cycle,\nwe must admit that in certain respects our great grand-parents had the\nadvantage of us. On the other hand it is generally admitted that the\neffects of selection have more than counterbalanced these evils. The\nsmall proportion of men and women who are selected as ancestors for the\nnext generation are so undoubtedly superior to the average that the\nadvance in each generation in any single respect, from the increased\noutput of first-class music to the decreased convictions for theft, is\nvery startling. Had it not been for ectogenesis there can be little\ndoubt that civilization would have collapsed within a measurable time\nowing to the greater fertility of the less desirable members of the\npopulation in almost all countries.\n\nIt is perhaps fortunate that the process of becoming an ectogenetic\nmother of the next generation involves an operation which is somewhat\nunpleasant, though now no longer disfiguring or dangerous, and\nnever physiologically injurious, and is therefore an honour but by\nno means a pleasure. Had this not been the case, it is perfectly\npossible that popular opposition would have proved too strong for\nthe selectionist movement. As it was the opposition was very fierce,\nand characteristically enough this country only adopted its present\nrather stringent standard of selection a generation later than Germany,\nthough it is now perhaps more advanced than any other country in this\nrespect. The advantages of thorough-going selection, have, however,\nproved to be enormous. \u201cThe question of the ideal sex-ratio is still a\nmatter of violent discussion, but the modern reaction towards equality\nis certainly strong.\u201d\n\nOur essayist would then perhaps go on to discuss some far more radical\nadvances made about 1990, but I have only quoted his account of the\nearlier applications of biology. The second appears to me to be neither\nimpossible nor improbable, but it has those features which we saw above\nto be characteristic of biological inventions. If reproduction is\nonce completely separated from sexual love mankind will be free in an\naltogether new sense. At present the national character is changing\nslowly according to quite unknown laws. The problem of politics is\nto find institutions suitable to it. In the future perhaps it may\nbe possible by selective breeding to change character as quickly as\ninstitutions. I can foresee the election placards of 300 years hence,\nif such quaint political methods survive, which is perhaps improbable,\n\u201cVote for Smith and more musicians\u201d, \u201cVote for O\u2019Leary and more girls\u201d,\nor perhaps finally \u201cVote for Macpherson and a prehensile tail for\nyour great-grandchildren\u201d. We can already alter animal species to an\nenormous extent, and it seems only a question of time before we shall\nbe able to apply the same principles to our own.\n\nI suggest then that biology will probably be applied on lines roughly\nresembling the above. There are perhaps equally great possibilities\nin the way of the direct improvement of the individual, as we come\nto know more of the physiological obstacles to the development of\ndifferent faculties. But at present we can only guess at the nature of\nthese obstacles, and the line of attack suggested in the myth is the\none which seems most obvious to a Darwinian. We already know however\nthat many of our spiritual faculties can only be manifested if certain\nglands, notably the thyroid and sex-glands, are functioning properly,\nand that very minute changes in such glands affect the character\ngreatly. As our knowledge of this subject increases we may be able,\nfor example, to control our passions by some more direct method than\nfasting and flagellation, to stimulate our imagination by some reagent\nwith less after-effects than alcohol, to deal with perverted instincts\nby physiology rather than prison. Conversely there will inevitably\narise possibilities of new vices similar to but even more profound than\nthose opened up by the pharmacological discoveries of the 19th century.\n\nThe recent history of medicine is as follows. Until about 1870\nmedicine was largely founded on physiology, or, as the Scotch called\nit \u201cInstitutes of medicine\u201d. Disease was looked at from the point of\nview of the patient, as injuries still are. Pasteur\u2019s discovery of the\nnature of infectious disease transformed the whole outlook, and made\nit possible to abolish one group of diseases. But it also diverted\nscientific medicine from its former path, and it is probable that,\nwere bacteria unknown, though many more people would die of sepsis\nand typhoid, we should be better able to cope with kidney disease\nand cancer. Certain diseases such as cancer are probably not due to\nspecific organisms, whilst others such as phthisis are due to forms\nwhich are fairly harmless to the average person, but attack others for\nunknown reasons. We are not likely to deal with them effectually on\nPasteur\u2019s lines, we must divert our view from the micro-organism to the\npatient. Where the doctor cannot deal with the former he can often keep\nthe patient alive long enough to be able to do so himself. And here he\nhas to rely largely on a knowledge of physiology. I do not say that a\nphysiologist will discover how to prevent cancer. Pasteur started life\nas a crystallographer. But whoever does so is likely at least to make\nuse of physiological data on a large-scale.\n\nThe abolition of disease will make death a physiological event like\nsleep. A generation that has lived together will die together. I\nsuspect that man\u2019s desire for a future life is largely due to two\ncauses, a feeling that most lives are incomplete, and a desire to meet\nfriends from whom we have parted prematurely. A gentle decline into the\ngrave at the end of a completed life\u2019s work will largely do away with\nthe first, and our contemporaries will rarely leave us sorrowing for\nlong.\n\nOld age is perhaps harder on women than on men. They live longer, but\ntheir life is too often marred by the sudden change which generally\novertakes them between forty and fifty, and sometimes leaves them a\nprey to disease, though it may improve their health. This change seems\nto be due to a sudden failure of a definite chemical substance produced\nby the ovary. When we can isolate and synthesize this body we shall be\nable to prolong a woman\u2019s youth, and allow her to age as gradually as\nthe average man.\n\nPsychology is hardly a science yet. Like biology it has arrived at\ncertain generalizations of a rather abstract and philosophic character,\nbut these are still to some extent matters of controversy. And though\na vast number of most important empirical facts are known, only a\nfew great generalizations from them--such as the existence of the\nsubconscious mind--have yet been made. But anyone who has seen even a\nsingle example of the power of hypnotism and suggestion must realise\nthat the face of the world and the possibilities of existence will\nbe totally altered when we can control their effects and standardize\ntheir application, as has been possible, for example, with drugs which\nwere once regarded as equally magical. Infinitely greater, of course,\nwould be the results of the opening up of systematic communication with\nspiritual beings in another world, which is claimed as a scientific\npossibility. Spiritualism is already Christianity\u2019s most formidable\nenemy, and we have no data which allows us to estimate the probable\neffect on man of a religion whose dogmas are a matter of experiment,\nwhose mysteries are prosaic as electric lighting, whose ethics are\nbased on the observed results in the next world of a good or bad life\nin this. Yet that is the prospect before us if spiritualism obtains the\nscientific verification which it is now demanding, not perhaps with\ngreat success.\n\nI have only been able, in the time at my disposal, to traverse a very\nfew of the possible fields of scientific advance. If I have convinced\nanyone present that science has still a good deal up her sleeve, and\nthat of a sufficiently startling character, I shall be amply repaid.\nIf anything I have said appears to be of a gratuitously disgusting\nnature, I would reply that certain phenomena of normal life do seem to\nmany to be of that nature, and that these phenomena are of the utmost\nscientific and practical importance.\n\nI have tried to show why I believe that the biologist is the most\nromantic figure on earth at the present day. At first sight he seems\nto be just a poor little scrubby underpaid man, groping blindly amid\nthe mazes of the ultra-microscopic, engaging in bitter and lifelong\nquarrels over the nephridia of flatworms, waking perhaps one morning\nto find that someone whose name he has never heard has demolished by a\nfew crucial experiments the work which he had hoped would render him\nimmortal. There is real tragedy in his life, but he knows that he has\na responsibility which he dare not disclaim, and he is urged on, apart\nfrom all utilitarian considerations, by something or someone which he\nfeels to be higher than himself.\n\nThe conservative has but little to fear from the man whose reason\nis the servant of his passions, but let him beware of him in whom\nreason has become the greatest and most terrible of the passions.\nThese are the wreckers of outworn empires and civilisations, doubters,\ndisintegrators, deicides. In the past they have been, in general, men\nlike Voltaire, Bentham, Thales, Marx, and very possibly the divine\nJulius, but I think that Darwin furnishes an example of the same\nrelentlessness of reason in the field of science. I suspect that as\nit becomes clear that at present reason not only has a freer play in\nscience than elsewhere, but can produce as great effects on the world\nthrough science as through politics, philosophy, or literature, there\nwill be more Darwins. Such men are interested primarily in truth as\nsuch, but they can hardly be quite uninterested in what will happen\nwhen they throw down their dragon\u2019s teeth into the world.\n\nI do not say that biologists as a general rule try to imagine in any\ndetail the future applications of their science. The central problems\nof life for them may be the relationship between the echinoderms and\nbrachiopods, and the attempt to live on their salaries. They do not\nsee themselves as sinister and revolutionary figures. They have no time\nto dream. But I suspect that more of them dream than would care to\nconfess it.\n\nI have given above a very small selection from my dreams. Perhaps they\nare bad dreams. It is of course almost hopeless to attempt any very\nexact prophecies as to how in detail scientific knowledge is going\nto revolutionize human life, but I believe that it will continue to\ndo so, and even more profoundly than I have suggested. And though\npersonally I am Victorian enough in my sympathies to hope that after\nall family life, for example, may be spared, I can only reiterate that\nnot one of the practical advances which I have predicted is not already\nforeshadowed by recent scientific work. If a chemist or physicist\nliving at the end of the seventeenth century had been asked to predict\nthe future application of his science he would doubtless have made many\nlaughable errors in the best Laputan style, but he would have been\ncertain that it would somehow be applied, and his faith would have been\njustified.\n\nWe must regard science then from three points of view. First it is the\nfree activity of man\u2019s divine faculties of reason and imagination.\nSecondly it is the answer of the few to the demands of the many for\nwealth, comfort and victory, for \u201c\u03bd\u03cc\u03c3\u03c9\u03bd \u03c4\u2019 \u1f00\u03c0\u03b5\u03af\u03c1\u03bf\u03c5\u03c2 \u03ba\u03b1\u1f76 \u03bc\u03b1\u03ba\u03c1\u03b1\u03af\u03c9\u03bd\u03b1\u03c2\n\u03b2\u03af\u03bf\u03c5\u03c2,\u201d gifts which it will grant only in exchange for peace, security\nand stagnation. Finally it is man\u2019s gradual conquest, first of space\nand time, then of matter as such, then of his own body and those of\nother living beings, and finally the subjugation of the dark and evil\nelements in his own soul.\n\nNone of these conquests will ever be complete, but all, I believe will\nbe progressive. The question of what he will do with these powers is\nessentially a question for religion and aesthetic. It may be urged that\nthey are only fit to be placed in the hands of a being who has learned\nto control himself, and that man armed with science is like a baby with\na box of matches.\n\nThe answer to this contention may, I think, be found in the daily\npapers. For scores of centuries idealists had urged that wars must\ncease and all the earth be united under one rule. As long as any\nother alternative was possible it was persisted in. The events of the\nlast nine years constituted a reductio ad absurdum of war, but when\nwe ask who was responsible for this we shall find that it was not the\nvisionaries but men like Black, Kekule, and Langley, who enlarged man\u2019s\npower over nature until he was forced by the inexorable logic of facts\nto form the nucleus of an international government.\n\nWe have already reacted against the frame of mind that engendered the\nleague of nations, but we have not reacted at all completely. The\nleague exists and is working, and in every country on earth there are\nmany people, and ordinary normal people, who favour the idea in one\nform or another of a world-state. I do not suggest that a world-state\nwill arise from the present league--or for the matter of that from the\nthird international. I merely observe that there is a widespread and\norganized desire for such an institution, and several possible nuclei\nfor it. It may take another world-war or two to convert the majority.\nThe prospect of the next world-war has at least this satisfactory\nelement. In the late war the most rabid nationalists were to be found\nwell behind the front line. In the next war no one will be behind the\nfront line. It will be brought home to all whom it may concern that war\nis a very dirty business.\n\nNo doubt there is a fair chance that the possibility of human\norganization on a planetary scale may be rendered impossible by such a\nwar. If so mankind will probably have to wait for a couple of thousand\nyears for another opportunity. But to the student of geology such\na period is negligible. It took man 250,000 years to transcend the\nhunting pack. It will not take him so long to transcend the nation.\n\nI think then that the tendency of applied science is to magnify\ninjustices until they become too intolerable to be borne, and the\naverage man whom all the prophets and poets could not move, turns\nat last and extinguishes the evil at its source. Marx\u2019 theory of\nindustrial evolution is a particular example of this tendency, though\nit does not in the least follow that his somewhat artificial solution\nof the problem will be adopted.\n\nIt is probable that biological progress will prove to be as\nincompatible with certain of our social evils as industrial progress\nhas proved to be with war or certain systems of private ownership.\nTo take a concrete example it is clear that the second biological\ninvention considered by my future essayist would be intolerable in\nconjunction with our present system of relations between classes and\nsexes. Moral progress is so difficult that I think any developments\nare to be welcomed which present it as the naked alternative to\ndestruction, no matter how horrible may be the stimulus which is\nnecessary before man will take the moral step in question.\n\nTo sum up then, science is as yet in its infancy, and we can foretell\nlittle of the future save that the thing that has not been is the thing\nthat shall be; that no beliefs, no values, no institutions are safe. So\nfar from being an isolated phenomenon the late war is only an example\nof the disruptive results that we may constantly expect from the\nprogress of science. The future will be no primrose path. It will have\nits own problems. Some will be the secular problems of the past, giant\nflowers of evil blossoming at last to their own destruction. Others\nwill be wholly new. Whether in the end man will survive his accessions\nof power we cannot tell. But the problem is no new one. It is the old\nparadox of freedom re-enacted with mankind for actor and the earth for\nstage. To those who believe in the divinity of that part of man which\naspires after knowledge for its own sake, who are able, in the words of\nBoethius:\n\n  \u201cte cernere finis,\n  \u201cPrincipium, vector, dux, semita, terminus idem\u201d.\n\nthe prospect will appear most hopeful. But it is only hopeful if\nmankind can adjust its morality to its powers. If we can succeed in\nthis, then science holds in her hands one at least of the keys to the\nthorny and arduous path of moral progress, then:\n\n  \u201cPer cruciamina leti,\n  \u201cVia panditur ardua justis,\n  \u201cEt ad astra doloribus itur\u201d.\n\nThat is possibly a correct large-scale view, but it is only for short\nperiods that one can take views of history sufficiently broad to render\nthe fate of one\u2019s own generation irrelevant. The scientific worker\nis brought up with the moral values of his neighbours. He is perhaps\nfortunate if he does not realize that it is his destiny to turn good\ninto evil. The moral and physical (though not the intellectual) virtues\nare means between two extremes. They are essentially quantitative. It\nfollows that an alteration in the scale of human power will render\nactions bad which were formerly good. Our increased knowledge of\nhygiene has transformed resignation and inaction in face of epidemic\ndisease from a religious virtue to a justly punishable offence. We have\nimproved our armaments, and patriotism, which was once a flame upon\nthe altar, has become a world-devouring conflagration.\n\nThe time has gone by when a Huxley could believe that while science\nmight indeed remould traditional mythology, traditional morals were\nimpregnable and sacrosanct to it. We must learn not to take traditional\nmorals too seriously. And it is just because even the least dogmatic of\nreligions tends to associate itself with some kind of unalterable moral\ntradition, that there can be no truce between science and religion.\n\nThere does not seem to be any particular reason why a religion should\nnot arise with an ethic as fluid as Hindu mythology, but it has not\nyet arisen. Christianity has probably the most flexible morals of\nany religion, because Jesus left no code of law behind him like Moses\nor Muhammad, and his moral precepts are so different from those of\nordinary life that no society has ever made any serious attempt to\ncarry them out, such as was possible in the case of Israel and Islam.\nBut every Christian church has tried to impose a code of morals of some\nkind for which it has claimed divine sanction. As these codes have\nalways been opposed to those of the gospels a loophole has been left\nfor moral progress such as hardly exists in other religions. This is\nno doubt an argument for Christianity as against other religions, but\nnot as against none at all, or as against a religion which will frankly\nadmit that its mythology and morals are provisional. That is the only\nsort of religion that would satisfy the scientific mind, and it is very\ndoubtful whether it could properly be called a religion at all.\n\nNo doubt many people hope that such a religion may develop from\nchristianity. The human intellect is feeble, and there are times when\nit does not assert the infinity of its claims. But even then:\n\n  \u201cThough in black jest it bows and nods\u201d\n\n                   *       *       *       *       *\n\n  \u201cI know it is roaring at the gods\n  Waiting the last eclipse.\u201d\n\nThe scientific worker of the future will more and more resemble the\nlonely figure of Daedalus as he becomes conscious of his ghastly\nmission, and proud of it.\n\n  \u201cBlack is his robe from top to toe,\n  His flesh is white and warm below,\n  All through his silent veins flow free\n  Hunger and thirst and venery,\n  But in his eyes a still small flame\n  Like the first cell from which he came\n  Burns round and luminous, as he rides\n  Singing my song of deicides.\u201d\n\n\n                               FOOTNOTES\n\n[Footnote 1: Embden, Grafe, and Schmitz. _Zeitschrift f\u00fcr\nphysiologische Chemie_, Vol. 113, p. 67, 1921.]\n\n[Footnote 2: The Hindus have recognized the special and physiological\nrelation of man to the cow by making the latter animal holy. A good\nHindu would no more kill a cow than his foster-mother. But the holiness\nof the cow has unfortunately extended to all its products, and the\nextensive use of cowdung in Indian religious ceremonies is disgusting\nto the average European. The latter however, is insensitive to the\nequally loathsome injunctions of the Catholic Church with regard to\nhuman marriage. It would perhaps be better if both marriage and milking\ncould be secularized.]","title":"Daedalus : $b or, Science and the future","tradition":"philosophy-ethics","translated_text":null,"word_count":11920}