{"collection":"philosophy-ethics","full_text_available":true,"graph_url":"https://unchartedknowledge.5gfusion.net/v2/api/page/gutenberg_73514/graph","html_url":"https://unchartedknowledge.5gfusion.net/v2/page/gutenberg_73514","id":"gutenberg_73514","license":"Public Domain (US)","rights_basis":"gutenberg_metadata_copyright_false","source":"gutenberg","source_url":"https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/73514","summary":null,"tags":["Category: Engineering & Technology","Category: Environmental Issues","Category: Philosophy & Ethics","Category: Sociology","Civilization","Progress"],"text":"QUO VADIMUS?\n\n\n\n\n              TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW SERIES\n\n\n  _D\u00c6DALUS, or Science and the Future_\n       By J. B. S. Haldane\n\n  _ICARUS, or The Future of Science_\n       By the Hon. Bertrand Russell, F.R.S.\n\n  _THE MONGOL IN OUR MIDST_\n       By F. G. Crookshank, M.D. _Fully Illustrated_\n\n  _WIRELESS POSSIBILITIES_\n       By Prof. A. M. Low. _With four Diagrams_\n\n  _NARCISSUS, or An Anatomy of Clothes_\n       By Gerald Heard. _Illustrated_\n\n  _TANTALUS, or The Future of Man_\n       By Dr. F. C. S. Schiller\n\n  _THE PASSING OF THE PHANTOMS_\n       By Prof. C. J. Patten, M.A., M.D., Sc.D., F.R.A.I.\n\n  _CALLINICUS, A Defence of Chemical Warfare_\n       By J. B. S. Haldane\n\n  _QUO VADIMUS? Some Glimpses of the Future_\n       By E. E. Fournier d\u2019Albe, D.Sc., F.Inst.P.\n\n  _THE CONQUEST OF CANCER_\n       By H. W. S. Wright, M.S., F.R.C.S.\n\n  _HYPATIA, or Woman and Knowledge_\n       By Dora Russell (Hon. Mrs. Bertrand Russell)\n\n  _LYSISTRATA, or Woman\u2019s Future and Future Woman_\n       By A. M. Ludovici\n\n  _WHAT I BELIEVE_\n       By the Hon. Bertrand Russell, F.R.S.\n\n\n                       _In Preparation_\n\n  _PERSEUS, of Dragons_\n       By H. F. Scott Stokes, M.A.\n\n  _THE FUTURE OF SEX_\n       By Rebecca West\n\n  _THE EVOCATION OF GENIUS_\n       By Alan Porter\n\n  _AESCULAPIUS, or Disease and The Man_\n       By F. G. Crookshank, M.D.\n\n                _Other Volumes in Preparation_\n\n                    E. P. DUTTON & COMPANY\n\n\n\n\n                             QUO VADIMUS?\n\n                         SOME GLIMPSES OF THE\n                                FUTURE\n\n                                  BY\n                         E. E. FOURNIER d\u2019ALBE\n                           D.Sc., F.Inst.P.\n\n            _Author of The Life of Sir William Crookes, The\n               Electron Theory, The Moon-Element, etc._\n\n\n                            [Illustration]\n\n\n                               NEW YORK\n                        E. P. DUTTON & COMPANY\n                           681 FIFTH AVENUE\n\n\n\n\n                            Copyright 1925\n                       By E. P. DUTTON & COMPANY\n\n                         _All Rights Reserved_\n\n\n                        _Printed in the United\n                          States of America_\n\n\n\n\n                             QUO VADIMUS?\n\n\nSitting at my desk by a cosy and up-to-date gas fire on a foggy day,\nwith tufts of mist steadily rolling up from the swollen waters of the\nwise old Thames, I try to realize that I am travelling through space at\na rate of over a thousand miles a minute, on board a minor planet in\nforced revolution round a vast white-hot globe nearly a hundred million\nmiles away.\n\nSomebody has called astronomy the Futile Science, and I am not at all\nsure that the epithet is wholly undeserved. What do the stars matter to\nus? There was a time when they were believed to have an influence on\nhuman affairs, particularly those of kings and emperors. To-day they\nare insignificant specks at an immense distance from us, a distance\nso great that if they all were utterly annihilated neither we nor our\nremotest descendants should experience the smallest material effect.\n\nThe only assignable value of the stars to us, beyond the general\nenlargement of our mental horizon, is that they serve as an accurate\nmeasure of time. But even that use is now almost superfluous, since\nother absolute standards of time have become available, such as the\nrates of disintegration of the radio-active elements.\n\nHow, then, can I account for the fact that there is a perpetual\nfascination about \u201cthe heavens,\u201d that books are constantly being\nwritten about them, societies founded to study them, and vast\nobservatories built to watch them?\n\nIt cannot be simply the thirst for knowledge. Knowledge in the abstract\nhas but few devotees. For every one person who wants the Truth at all\ncosts there are a thousand who want an Illusion at all costs, even\nat the cost of mental balance. Let a man go about proclaiming truths\nascertained by research and experiment, and he will be considered a\nbore by all except a few specialists. But let him boldly assert an\nabsurdity or a paradox, and he will obtain millions of adherents, all\nanimated by the Will to Believe. And the more absurd his assertions,\nthe more self-assured and fanatical will be his followers.\n\nNo, the popular interest in astronomy is not due to a thirst for\naccurate information. It is due to a vestige of the old astrological\nbelief in the significance of the constellations. We still try to \u201cread\nour fate in the stars.\u201d They are of interest to us for what they can\ntell us of the future, proximate or remote. We search the heavens for\nan answer to the question \u201cWhither?\u201d\u2015\u2015_Quo vadimus?_\n\nIn trying to predict the fate of the human race we must begin by\ngauging the chances of permanence possessed by our habitable globe.\nIts probable age has been put at a hundred million years. Predictions\nas to when it will cease to be habitable vary enormously, but the\nlatest figures go into many millions of years, and the discovery of\nradio-activity has had the effect of greatly postponing the general\nfreezing up of our planet.\n\nOur earthly habitation, then, seems assured for many millions of years.\nBut millions of years are, after all, but relative, and they vanish\nbefore the vast age of the stellar universe[1] and the enormous vistas\nof time yet to come.\n\n  [1] Dr. Jeans, on very modern data, puts this age at seven million\n      million years.\n\nHow far can our gaze penetrate the fog which obscures our future?\nCan we build for eternity? Must we prepare for a catastrophe or an\ninevitable decay? Can we assure to our descendants an indefinitely\nprolonged future of perpetual progress and ever-increasing happiness?\n\nThe answer to these questions is ultimately based upon psychological\nfactors. Human life requires certain physical conditions for its\nmaintenance. It also requires the passive assistance of many forms\nof animal life and plant life. But Man is, without exception, the\nmost adaptable inhabitant of this globe, and there is little fear of\nany physical or biological factors bringing about his extinction,\nprovided they change sufficiently gradually. If life is adaptation to\nsurroundings, then Man has more chance of surviving changing conditions\nthan any other form of terrestrial life. What other species can thrive\nequally in the Arctic and under the Equator? The dog is man\u2019s only\nrival in that respect, and is but second best.\n\nWe need, therefore, not be anxious lest a change in general physical\nenvironment bring our race to an end. The end of the human race, if\never it comes, will be due to the human race itself. If the race dies,\nit will die by suicide. And suicide is a matter of psychology.\n\nLet us examine the possibility of a voluntary euthanasia of the human\nrace. It seems the only sort of suicide that is at all conceivable. Can\nwe imagine a state of things arising in which the leaders will say: \u201cWe\nhave lived long enough. Our race has had a glorious history, let it\nhave a glorious end. We cannot and will not bow to the new conditions\nimposed by Nature. We would rather die and end it all. Let us all\nperish together.\u201d\n\nSuch an attitude would indeed be a new phenomenon. People have died\nrather than surrender, but it was with the thought of the approval\nof their fellows and the perpetual honour of their names. In the\ncase contemplated there would be no such inducement to heroism. The\nsurrender would be unchronicled and unsung.\n\nA refusal to adapt itself to new conditions is not unknown among savage\nraces, nor among classes of civilized society. Tribes have perished off\nthe face of the earth, owing to a voluntary refusal or to inability to\nadapt themselves to new conditions of life. But, so far as we know,\nthis has always taken place in the presence of races of superior\nadaptability.\n\nCivilizations have perished. We do not know, of course, how many\ncivilizations have disappeared without leaving a trace. But we do know\nthat races have existed, even in our own islands, who were capable of\ntransporting and building up great pieces of rock, and of arranging\nthem in an astronomically significant manner. Did these races perish\nunder the attacks of an enemy? Or did they die off owing to the\nexhaustion of their own vitality? We may suppose that it was the former\nrather than the latter alternative. For in view of the great and\nincreasing power of the human race we hardly need fear any enemies from\nwithout. Our destruction, if ever it comes, will come from within. It\nwill come if and when we develop a Will to Die.\n\nSuch a Will to Die has been observed on a small scale in the wave\nof suicide sweeping over Central Europe after the Great War. But it\nwas only a symptom of readjustment. It was partial, and practically\nconfined to the class bound up with social and governmental stability,\nand incapable of adaptation to radically changed conditions.\n\nA more ominous phenomenon is the fall in the birth-rate of most of the\ninsular tribes of the Pacific, which in some cases has led to their\ntotal extinction. The causes of this fall have never been fully cleared\nup. If it is due to the introduction of diseases by Indo-European germ\ncarriers, or the adoption of modern clothing, or the destruction of\nnative standards of morality by the introduction of Asiatic religions,\nthere is no cause for alarm concerning the future of the human race as\na whole. But if the mere discouragement of the tribe when faced with\nnew conditions can act directly upon the instinct of procreation, and\naffect, so to speak, the _\u00e9lan vital_ of the germ-plasm, then we are\nfaced with the gravest danger to which the human race can be exposed.\n\nFor such an effect would be too insidious to be dealt with by public\nmeasures. It would be a psychological disease of the most fatal and\nvirulent kind. It might affect the whole human race during some crisis\nin its fortunes, and might bring about its destruction by the failure\nof the sex instinct.\n\nAlthough such a failure must always be a menacing possibility, it is\na remote one, and at no time has it threatened the human race as a\nwhole. Hunger and Love have kept our race going up to now, and, barring\nunforeseen developments, they will do so _in s\u0153cula s\u0153culorum_.\n\nBut there are other dangers. A new germ might be evolved which, like\nthe gonococcus, might attack the germ plasm, and produce general\nsterility. This is one of the dangers that _can_ be fought by hygienic\nand sanitary measures, and the wiles and intricacies of bacteriological\nnovelties may be safely left to the ever-increasing resources of\nbacteriology itself.\n\nAgain, there is the danger of new \u201crays.\u201d It is now a well-known fact\nthat X-rays produce sterility when penetrating the human body in\nconsiderable strength or for any length of time. The effect can be\nguarded against by an armour of lead screens. X-rays are cut off by a\nthin sheet of lead. There are other rays, known as gamma-rays, which\ncan penetrate several inches of lead. And higher up in the atmosphere,\nabout seven miles up, another kind of radiation is found from which\neven a plate of lead five feet thick would be no protection. If the\nsun, entering an unknown part of space filled with denser matter, were\nto develop a form of radiation leading to a considerable increase in\nthe penetrating atmospheric rays, the persistent action of these rays\nupon the human germ plasm might bring about the total destruction of\nthe human race by reducing its birth-rate to zero. The effect might\nnot even be discovered until it was too late to remedy it. And even\nif it were discovered in time, the action of the rays upon all life\non the earth\u2019s surface might have produced havoc enough to stop all\nfood-supplies and produce universal starvation.\n\nIt is difficult to see how even the greatest resources of science could\nmeet such an emergency as that. But, short of such a new danger, there\nis little doubt that the resources of humanity will be able to meet all\nconceivable situations which may threaten it with destruction.\n\nIn order to ensure the indefinite continuance of the human race on\nearth, it is necessary\n\n(1) to maintain adequate food supplies and (2) to conserve the\nprocreative impulse.\n\nThe latter condition might, indeed, be put first on the list.\n\nThese are the conditions of bare existence. Progress and happiness are,\nas they always have been, secondary considerations. Many minds have\nregarded one or both of them as unessential. Thus, it is not at all\nnecessary to contemplate an _increasing_ population of the globe. The\nleadership of the human race can much more effectively be maintained\nby educating individuals than by increasing their numbers. And as\nregards happiness, that can safely be left to take care of itself. All\nprogress is progress towards greater happiness. Even mere existence\ncan be a source of supreme happiness, as when a great danger has been\nsuccessfully averted.\n\n                   *       *       *       *       *\n\nOnce we are sure that the human race has a reasonable chance of\nindefinite survival, we can proceed to contemplate the changes, if any,\nwhich are likely to take place as the centuries and millennia roll on.\n\nAnthropologists put the age of the human race roughly at half a\nmillion years. In that comparatively long period\u2015\u2015long as compared\nwith history, but short as reckoned by geology\u2015\u2015man has evolved from\nan ape-like, tree-dwelling nut-eater into a plodding, illiterate,\nmonosyllabic tiller of the soil, (I take the majority of mankind as\nrepresentative of its state of progress rather than the _\u00e9lite_).\nThe 500 millennia of human evolution have had but little effect\non the human form and the average human character. The brain is\nsomewhat larger generally and the mouth rather less protruding. The\nmental equipment of the representative man\u2015\u2015the man representing the\nmajority\u2015\u2015is in many ways inferior to that of the dog or the ant. He is\nfull of greeds and lusts and superstitions which place him on a level\nwith the higher animal life, or even below it.\n\nIt is in his possibilities rather than in his actual state of\ndevelopment that man is a superior being. Those possibilities have\nto some extent been realized in the educated few. When we speak of\ncivilization, of modern life and scientific advance, we fix our\nattention exclusively on the educated _\u00e9lite_. In asserting, for\ninstance, that nowadays nobody doubts that the earth is round, we are\nreferring to a very small minority of the human race, composed of\nperhaps half the adults of Europe and America and Australia, with a\nsmall sprinkling of Africans and Asiatics, in all perhaps 10 per cent.\nof the total population. If a vote were taken of every man, woman, and\nchild in the world to decide whether the earth is flat or round, there\nwould be a majority of perhaps 9 to 1 in favour of a flat earth.\n\nAgain, \u201ceverybody\u201d is supposed to know that a whale is not a fish,\nthat it does not spawn or lay eggs, but that it suckles its young like\nany other mammalian. What proportion of the human race actually _does_\nknow that simple fact? How many human beings even know that the sun is\nlarger than the moon? A great many, no doubt, but how many out of the\nwhole race?\n\nScientific knowledge is the birthright of every human child. But on\nthat very account, perhaps, it is neither prized nor cherished. In the\nmarkets where thoughts are bought and sold, an ounce of illusion is\nworth a ton of fact.\n\nThe enormous disproportion between the amount of knowledge accumulated\nby the human intelligentsia and the general level of knowledge is\nproductive of many evils and anomalies. It necessarily breeds an\nattitude of contemptuous superiority towards the uninformed masses,\nand supplies a temptation to profit by that superiority in order to\ndominate and oppress the majority. Many wars, strikes, revolutions, and\nother social crises are the outcome of this anomalous condition. On\nthe other hand, the very existence of empires requires the presence of\na great substratum of the half-educated or uncultivated to follow the\nlead and obey the behests of the Imperial few.\n\nThe British Empire derives its strength from the numerical strength\nof its _\u00e9lite_. The Russian Empire and its direct heir, the present\nOligarchy, have had a small _\u00e9lite_ raised above an enormous mass of\nwhat is probably the least-educated population in the world, outside\nAfrica. The French African Empire disguises the hegemony of Paris\nunder the liberal concession of a nominal French citizenship to its\nsubject tribes. The French _\u00e9lite_ is broader than the British, as\nwealth in France is more evenly distributed. In Germany, on the other\nhand, and in certain smaller countries, like Denmark and Finland, it\nis education rather than wealth which is more or less impartially\ndistributed. This also tends to broaden the _\u00e9lite_ and make the nation\n(as distinguished from the empire) more intrinsically powerful.\n\nWe thus get an _\u00e9lite_ among nations as well as individuals. This\n_\u00e9lite_ is, however, based upon force rather than intellectual\nleadership, owing to the fact that a nation regarded as an organism\nis in a much more primitive stage of evolution than is a civilized\nindividual. Nations have no morality, no curbs upon their greed, their\nhatred, their jealousy and vindictiveness.\n\nThe rivalry among nations makes for progress, but its most active\nmanifestations may produce a serious set-back of long duration,\ninvolving irreparable loss.\n\nSo long as peace and goodwill do not prevail among individual men it\nis absurd to expect them to prevail among a collection of beasts of\nprey such as we have in the nations of the world. Yet it is obviously\ndesirable that the human population of the globe should advance as one\nman. There is one thing, and one thing only, which can unite humanity\ninto one closely-knit organism, and that is _an external enemy_.\n\nIf Mr. H. G. Wells\u2019s _War of the Worlds_ were to come true, and an\nexpeditionary force of Martians were to land on the earth with a view\nto its annexation, then the human race might instantly unite to repel\nthe invader. It would be an inspiring sight to see Japanese and Turks,\nAbyssinians and Zulus, Eskimos and Swiss, Brazilians and Mexicans\nand Doughboys, Tahitians and Britishers and Russians, Irish and\nEgyptians, Persians and Chinese, all vying with each other in devotion\nand bravery, fighting for their native planet against a ruthless and\nmerciless invader.\n\nWithout such a danger from without, the close federation of the nations\nof the world is almost unthinkable. Take the case of Ireland. There\nwe have two nationalities in one island, as opposed to each other as\nany two nations in the same continent. In the North, a hardy, stern,\nrough and unbending type of Scottish origin, who despises the \u201cnatives\u201d\nof Ireland as an inferior race, and makes good by converting a large\nslice of the \u201cdistressful country\u201d into a garden of prosperity. In\nthe South, a graceful and indolent peasant race, with all the mingled\ndiffidence and bravado of a conquered people largely pervaded by the\nblood of its conquerors, and imbued with the idea of martyrdom for the\ntwin ideas of religion and nationality (in this case, as it happens,\nquite incompatible). How can anyone expect peace under such conditions?\nThe situation is the very stuff that ruthless wars are made of. The\nUlsterman will not \u201cgo under\u201d a Dublin parliament run by what he\nconsiders to be ignorant cornerboys. The Munsterman looks upon the\n\u201cblaack Praatestant\u201d of the North as dirt, which Ireland must disgorge\nbefore she can rise to the height of her destiny. England, with her\ngood-natured religious and ethnical tolerance, is despised by both\nparties, though the Ulsterman clings passionately to the empire, which\nhe provides with the largest ships afloat.\n\nThat sort of thing makes international tribunals and Leagues of Nations\nlook ridiculous. Here are two populations in a small island, ready to\nrend each other limb from limb on the slightest excuse because the\ncountry is not large enough to hold both.\n\nOn the other hand, it is an undoubted fact that international trade,\nfinance, and intercourse has increased enormously with improved means\nof transport. The Postal Union is a fine achievement towards the\nunification of the whole human family. Its successful working shows\nthat enterprises covering the entire civilized population of the globe\ncan now be undertaken and carried through. It so happens that the two\ngreatest States of the world, the British Empire and the United States\nof America, are also the States whose home countries are freest from\nnational intolerance and race prejudice, both consisting of a mixture\nof many nationalities. It is to them, as well as France, that we must\nlook for the greatest advances towards the ideal of a world federation.\nGermany before the War cherished dreams of World Supremacy, but lacked\nthe schooling which might have led to success.\n\nThe two great Empires\u2015\u2015British and Japanese\u2015\u2015and the two great\nRepublics\u2015\u2015France and U.S.A.\u2015\u2015will, if they can agree, form a good\nnucleus for a federation of the world. The world, in its present state,\nrequires leadership, and if the leaders are a representative and\nbenevolent oligarchy, it is about the best we can hope for.\n\n                   *       *       *       *       *\n\nGiven a reasonable degree of stability, guaranteed by a combination of\nthe best instruments of government yet devised, we may expect a very\nrapid progress. What direction will this progress take, and what will\nbe the fruits of it?\n\nDo not listen to those futile people who say there is no progress, and\nthat there is \u201cnothing new under the sun\u201d! So far from maintaining that\nwhat is has been and ever shall be I should assert that nothing that\nis has ever been before, that there are new things evolved every day,\nand that every child born is a unique personality, unprecedented in the\nannals of creation.\n\nAnd not only are things new, but the new things are, on the general\naverage, a bit more advanced than the last. Advanced towards what?\nTowards perfection, towards greater happiness, a fuller and more\nenduring life.\n\nWho will dare deny that life in England\u2015\u2015to take the nearest example\u2015\u2015is\nhappier now than it was even fifty years ago? Some people will sigh for\nthe good old times of the Victorian reign, when money and employment\nwere plentiful, when there was ample leisure for the rich, with pleasant\nways of spending it, when masters were masters indeed and servants were\nloyal, respectful, and dutiful. But in recent times, apart from the\ntragedy of the Great War, there has been an immense improvement in the\nlife of the average Englishman and his dependents. The general level of\neducation has risen, infectious diseases have been successfully fought,\nschooling has become brighter and more effective, clothing has become\nmore rational. There is more fresh air and less drudgery. The workman\ndraws a larger share of the product of his effort, and often drives his\nmotor car while his employer goes by train. The workman draws his\nbloated wage under the protection of his trade union, while the employer\nlies awake at night wondering how best to keep the works running and\nfind new markets for old. That is nearly all to the good, since there\nare many more workmen than employers, and the general level of\ncontentment is raised.\n\nEven the aged, instead of being thrown on the scrap heap, are guarded\nfrom destitution by pensions honourably drawn from a wise government.\n\nIt will, I hope, be put to my credit that I have not carolled the\nblessings of the cinema theatre or even of wireless broadcasting. The\noptimist who emphasizes these is usually met with the reply that these\ndo more harm than good, and spoil young people for ordinary life.\nWhatever may be said concerning the dull hotch-potch turned out \u201cin\nbulk\u201d by the American film industry, nobody can deny that an element\nof romance has been brought into the lives of countless poor people by\nEdison\u2019s and Berliner\u2019s great invention.\n\nAs regards wireless broadcasting, it is too early to speak of its\npermanent effects. It has come upon us like an avalanche. For the first\ntime, it has enlisted youth in the highest electrical problems. It has\npaved the way for the general diffusion of scientific knowledge while\nostensibly popularizing the art of music. In any case, it is a complete\nanswer to Ben Akiba and his saying about there being nothing new.\n\nMr. J. B. S. Haldane[2] believes that the centre of scientific interest\nnow lies in biology, and that physiology will eventually invade and\ndestroy mathematical physics. It is quite possible that the advance\nof what physicists sometimes playfully call the \u201cinexact\u201d sciences\nmay cast those of physics and chemistry entirely in the shade, but\nalthough biology has made some difference to human life in the last\ngeneration, its effects cannot remotely compare with those of physical\nand chemical discoveries. The mere increase of speed in transport,\ndue to the internal-combustion engine, has caused a speeding-up of\nthe whole nervous system and a brightening of the intelligence of all\nbut an insignificant fraction of the population. When the choice lies\nbetween the Quick and the Dead, even the most sluggish temperament will\nput on a spurt, and this continued sprinting across the motor traffic\nhas produced a more agile generation. If such a profound difference can\nbe made in twenty years, what will be the effect of even 200 years of\ncontinually accelerated progress?\n\n  [2] _D\u00e6dalus_, pp. 10 and 16.\n\nThe continual acceleration of the rate of progress must not be lost\nsight of in forecasting the future. It happens to coincide with a\nsimilar increase in the consumption of accumulated fuels, like coal\nand oil, and might be expected to slow down when those supplies of\npreserved sunlight come to an end. But by that time other accumulations\nwill no doubt have been discovered and utilized.\n\nUnless the Russian blight extends over Europe and America, we may\nconfidently look forward to a long era of steadily accelerated\nprogress. What form that progress will take is notoriously difficult\nto forecast. The main difficulty arises from the fact that the most\npromising discoveries sometimes turn out to be impracticable, or at\nleast of quite secondary importance. Nobody prophesied the great\ndevelopment of the motor car, nor of that gigantic child of the old\nZoetrope or \u201cWheel of Life\u201d which we call the Picture Theatre. A genius\nlike H. G. Wells could indeed write a marvellously accurate forecast\nof flying achievements, but in one of his books he makes a great deal\nof the Brennan mono-rail, which, after a sensational beginning, failed\nto reach maturity, probably owing to the temporary failure of that\nmuch-maligned but quite essential fertilizer of inventions, capital.\nOther inventions, such as the speaking film, bear within themselves\ncertain weaknesses which may prevent them from attaining great\npopularity.\n\nBut previous failures to peep into the future effectively shall not\ndeter the author from another attempt to pierce the veil hiding our\nfate. He will proceed by \u201cextrapolating\u201d the curves representing\nprogress made hitherto, but will always allow for unexpected new\ndepartures in what are already known to be possible directions.\n\n                   *       *       *       *       *\n\n_Transport and Communications._\u2015\u2015The most conspicuous changes in our\nmode of life have been brought about by improved means of transport.\nRailways and steamships have become essential to Great Britain, largely\nowing to the fact that food-supplies have to be purchased in exchange\nfor exported manufactures. But even in non-industrial countries the\nrailway has entered very largely into the life of the people. It is\npart of the essential attribute of life which seeks diversity and a\nfuller activity of the senses. Life is, in effect, prolonged when it\nis made to contain more and more detail. The social life of a person\nis roughly measured by the number of people with whom he converses in\nthe course of a day. Improved transport means facilities for extending\nthis number. It also means an enlargement of a person\u2019s sphere of\ninfluence, of his \u201carea of effective occupation.\u201d In business, it gives\nan opportunity of increasing turnover, and thus reducing costs. It also\nfacilitates competition, both in buying and selling, and thus tends to\nenforce the law of supply and demand and other enactments of what used\nto be called the \u201cdismal science,\u201d but now ranks as the most \u201cactual\u201d\nof all the sciences.\n\nPostal and telegraphic facilities have the same general effect of\ndiversifying and extending life. The telephone has produced an\nentirely new form of social intercourse, and a new privileged class.\nBy acquiring a telephone number, we obtain entrance into a hall where\nrapid and varied communication becomes an abundant source of activity,\ninformation, and amusement.\n\nIncreased facilities of this kind also tend to cement a nation of one\nlanguage into a closely organized whole, so that its cohesion and its\ninfluence abroad are strengthened. The \u201ctemperature\u201d of the national\nlife is raised, and it increases in proportion. An increased energy\nalso accelerates the rate of progress, so that it tends to spread like\na fire. What this acceleration will mean we can as yet only dimly\nsurmise. A time will come, no doubt, when we may crowd into an hour a\nvariety of experiences which our ancestors would have extended over\na lifetime. We need not necessarily do so, but the mere fact that\nit is possible will add a zest and a richness to life such as we,\nwith all our advantages, can as yet hardly conceive. But the general\neffect will be to reduce more and more the limitations now imposed\nupon us by space. It will no doubt be eventually possible to get into\ncommunication with anybody on earth at a moment\u2019s notice, provided that\nperson is willing.\n\n_Privacy._\u2015\u2015The last proviso is important. Civilization not only makes\nus more accessible to those we appreciate, but also makes us less\naccessible to those of whom we disapprove. An increase in our area\nof choice would be of little value if everybody else could choose\nto intrude upon us at any time or place. A limitation of social\nintercourse to a chosen few, or its total cessation for the time\nrequired for rest and recuperation in a strenuous life is one of the\ngreatest boons one can desire. The rank and file is more gregarious\nthan the _\u00e9lite_ and, as one of the ideals of progress is to raise the\nmasses towards the level occupied by the _\u00e9lite_, the extension of\nfacilities for seclusion is of the essence of progress. Hence commons\nand open spaces are provided in and around well-planned cities. Houses\nare provided with sound-proof walls, and gardens are protected as much\nas possible from \u201coverlooking.\u201d A very modern problem of the same kind\nis the protection of wireless listeners from oscillations produced in\nneighbouring receiving sets.\n\n_Clothing._\u2015\u2015The present generation of civilized humanity justly\nprides itself on its sensible style of clothing. Although masculine\nclothing contains a number of \u201cvestigial\u201d elements which are absurd\nsurvivals of former necessities, the practice, observed more especially\nin Great Britain, of wearing a variety of apparel suited to special\noccasions and occupations adds a certain elasticity to fashions which\notherwise are almost comically rigid. If a man wore a wreath of flowers\nround his head instead of a hat he would not walk fifty yards in any\nLondon street without being arrested for \u201cinsulting behaviour\u201d or\n\u201cconduct likely to cause a breach of the peace.\u201d Yet a woman could do\nso with impunity if she did it with the necessary air of assurance.\n\nThe future of clothing is largely affected by social problems.\nMasculine clothing ceased to be demonstrative in Europe shortly after\nthe French Revolution. While aristocracy flourished, it paraded itself\naggressively in velvet and ruffles and powdered wigs. In modern times\nit is bad form to strut and swagger, except on very special occasions.\nGood clothing is not aggressively ornate or expensive. Its quality is a\nmatter of lines and cut and finish. Its preciousness is disguised from\nthe uninitiated. It is like the sober and almost dingy town houses of\nthe nobility, whose splendour is only shown to favoured friends and\ntrusted servants. In 1794 the dress of the \u201caristo\u201d was a passport to\nthe guillotine. In later and wiser days it is a disguise to deceive the\ntax-collector and the demagogue, and to lull their prying rapacity into\ninactivity.\n\nFeminine attire follows the same principles, modified by the essential\ndifferences between the sexes. The ideal of a well-dressed woman varies\nwidely with her surroundings. In bad weather out of doors, or in an\nunsympathetic crowd, her garments will be a defensive armour designed\nto reveal as little of her personality as is compatible with her\npurpose. Under more favourable conditions, they will become a setting\nmade as suitable as possible to the peculiar qualities and attractions\nof the jewel they are supposed to contain. Not every woman can, under\npresent conditions, be beautiful, but she can suggest beauty at every\nturn, remind us of beautiful things, and give us that feeling of holy\ncalm which we experience in the presence of beauty, if she will but\ndress appropriately to the occasion and to her own personality.\n\nThese considerations must affect our view of the appropriate styles\nof A.D. 2025. Dress appropriate to the occasion! Dress is, after all,\na sort of extension of the physical personality. The body of a naked\nchild at play is the most perfect thing in beauty that can be seen. All\nits muscles adapt themselves instantly to its activities. Everything is\nappropriate and harmonious. A thin and clinging covering would detract\nbut little from its grace of movement and expression, and might,\nindeed, add something of force and swiftness that cannot be perceived\nin the mere play of muscles. Thus the plumes of a Red Indian add to the\nsense of speed and purpose conveyed by his movements.\n\nI do not agree with Mr. H. G. Wells that the final ideal of clothing\nis its total abolition. Clothing has the effect of enlarging man\u2019s\nsphere of activity until it covers the entire globe from the poles to\nthe equator. Another advantage is that it emphasizes mental qualities\nrather than physical qualities. If mere physical beauty were the one\nessential to human well-being, mankind would have long ago insisted\non its being freely displayed\u2015\u2015and judged\u2015\u2015without the disguise of\nclothing.\n\nInstead, a common agreement among civilized peoples insists that on\neveryday occasions little but the face is to be visible, because its\nfeatures and expression give a clue to the mentality behind them.\nOn special occasions, such as balls and dinner parties, more may be\nrevealed by the gentler sex, but even then the area revealed must be\nconfined to what is least likely to show defects and is of least\nphysiological interest and importance, so that the attention may still\nbe directed towards mental rather than emotional or physical qualities.\n\nThe evolution of clothing will, therefore, be in the direction of\nadaptability to climate and occupation. New fabrics will no doubt be\ninvented, combining the warmth of fur with the softness and flexibility\nof silk and the strength of linen. Dress will be light, so that half a\ndozen changes of costume can be carried in a handbag, and will be so\ndesigned that each change will involve no more inconvenience than does\nthe removal of a raincoat. And so we shall eventually combine the Greek\nideal of expressive drapery with the exacting conditions of a strenuous\nmodern life.\n\n_Housing._\u2015\u2015Man is an animal with a cubical shell. If the earth were\nreduced to the size of a football and its surface were examined with a\npowerful microscope, we should see it studded with incrustations like\ndried salt, especially about the river mouths. These incrustations\nwould be the cities, consisting of thousands of rectangular or\ncube-shaped blocks. With a greater magnification we might see minute\nspecks swarming about these shell-like houses, elongated specks with\ntheir longer axis vertical, and with a marked tendency to enter the\nhouses at nightfall and emerge again after daybreak.\n\nIf a giant had been watching the development of these incrustations\nfor several thousand years, he would have seen them spreading from the\nMediterranean and some parts of Asia till they studded the Atlantic\nregions. Thence, after a time, they would spread to the other side\nof the Atlantic, and become particularly numerous along its western\nshores. Watching them again for several thousand years, he might see\nthese incrustations gradually dissolved, and the disease\u2015\u2015he would\nprobably call it a disease\u2015\u2015become \u201cgeneralized\u201d all over the planet,\nthe local incrustations giving way before a universal but only slightly\ncrusted condition of the earth\u2019s entire land surface.\n\nThis is the most probable solution of the general housing problem.\nOrdinary and wireless telephony, soon to be supplemented by\n\u201ctelevision,\u201d will gradually reduce the isolation brought about by mere\nspace, while underground and overground transport of goods will render\nthe distribution of supplies less and less laborious. Houses will,\ntherefore, be built more widely apart than they are in cities, and each\nwill have its own private grounds. The structures will be of a material\nimpervious to heat and cold, but transparent or translucent to light,\nthough there will be means of darkening the whole house if desired.\nArtificial lighting will not be by lamps, but by a close imitation\nof diffused daylight, which is coolest and most restful to the eyes.\nThere will be no domestic servants. All the \u201cwork\u201d of the house will\nbe done by machinery requiring but the turning of a switch and the\naiming of implements resembling magic wands. Cooking will be a pleasant\ndomestic art, most of the preparations being made by the purveyors of\nfood stuffs. As it is unlikely that the anatomical structure and the\nphysiological functioning of the human frame will be materially changed\nfor thousands of years to come, food will not be very different from\nwhat it is now, but there will be a nicer discrimination of what foods,\nand what quantity of them, are best calculated to maintain perfect\nhealth.\n\n_Children._\u2015\u2015Most prophets concerning the future of the human race\npostulate many and radical changes in the birth and rearing of\nchildren. Some say that advancing civilization will make the present\nprocess impossible on account of the steadily increasing size of the\nhuman skull, which will eventually make normal birth impossible.\nProfessor Haldane forecasts \u201cectogenesis\u201d or the artificial ripening of\nthe embryo outside the human body. Whatever may happen to the physical\nact of birth\u2015\u2015it will no doubt be alleviated in many ways\u2015\u2015one hopes\nthat the tender joys of watching over the development of a child\u2019s body\nand mind will not be taken away from us.\n\nMuch more enlightened care will, no doubt, be bestowed upon the welfare\nof the infant than is done at present. How many crimes are unwittingly\ncommitted against a child\u2019s mentality by ignorant parents and nurses!\nLies and prevarications and evasions are always reprehensible, but with\nchildren they are of fatal and life-long effect. We owe the truth to\na child more than to any adult. Our promises to a child should be as\nbinding as an oath. Tell them fairy tales by all means, but tell them\nwith a voice and expression which inevitably stamps them as such, and\nmakes belief optional.\n\nI cannot see any effective substitute for family life so long as\nthere are children to bring up. Children feed on love as they do on\nfood and fresh air, and no vicarious love can take the place of the\nnatural affection between children and their parents. The institution\nof marriage may undergo many and far-reaching changes[3], but nothing\nis likely to change the paramount necessity of parental care of, and\nresponsibility for, children. Children are rooted in their parents.\nThey are, in a sense, survivals of their parents\u2019 personality, and\nconstitute their chance of physical immortality. It is, therefore,\nabsurd to suppose that the human race will at any time in its history\nconsent to the \u201cnationalization\u201d of its children. On the other hand,\nthe supervision of ill-disposed or incompetent parents by the State\nwill, no doubt, become more and more strict.\n\n  [3] Its early history shows it to be a contrivance for the\n      safe-guarding of infants in their earliest years by allocating\n      a large proportion of responsibility to the father. Among Semitic\n      and other Asiatic tribes, this allocation of responsibility was\n      fortified by the somewhat crude precaution of secluding women.\n      Marriage as a means of allocating responsibility will become\n      superfluous as soon as parentage can be infallibly traced with the\n      aid of the microscope, as some biologists confidently foretell.\n      The chief _raison d\u2019etre_ of marriage will then be gone, but it\n      will no doubt continue for a considerable time as a picturesque\n      survival of an ancient custom.\n\n_Education._\u2015\u2015In spite of the prodigious advance in educational methods\nin the last two generations, education is still in a state of primitive\nbarbarity. We may, therefore, expect some very profound changes in\nthe centuries to come. There is still too much of the methods of the\npump about our education. The idea seems to be that the teacher draws\nfrom the well of knowledge and administers copious draughts to his\npupils, and when they have swallowed these they are educated! There is\nno better illustration of this curious view than the modern method of\nimparting \u201chigher\u201d education. The University lecture is, of all methods\nof imparting knowledge, about the least effective. The student sits\nin a stiff attitude and maintains a pose of strained attention. He\nendeavours to keep his mind concentrated on the words and meaning of\nthe professor. Every now and then he succeeds, but then his thoughts\npersist in following their own train of associations and the thread\nis broken. He jots down disconnected notes, hoping to piece them\ntogether afterwards. This piecing together is often the only process\nwhich really advances his knowledge. It brings his own will-power\nand faculties into action. The lecture only requires will-power for\nconcentration on somebody else\u2019s thought, and this effort is negative\nand sterile.\n\nIf lectures must be, then they should be interrupted after every\nten minutes or so. The lecturer should then sit down and invite and\nencourage his students to ask pertinent questions or advance sound\ncriticism.\n\nIn a class-room it is easier to keep the interest of the pupils alive.\nEvery effort should be made to let the information come from the pupils\nrather than the teacher. In teaching history, for instance, I should\nnot have set lessons at all, but ask the pupils to collect facts within\na certain period, and reward them in accordance with their success in\npresenting the facts and linking them up with others.\n\nThe education of the future will be like the medicine of the future.\nBoth will aim at eliciting and enlisting the powers of the pupil (or\npatient) rather than dosing them. For the real learning and the real\ncure must come from them.\n\nEvery normal child is anxious to learn, and can be easily brought to\nfeel and appreciate the intellectual joy of comprehension. But in most\nchildren this joy is marred in early infancy by insufficient attention\nto their struggles to understand the great world about them. It is the\nyears of infancy\u2015\u2015the pre-school years\u2015\u2015which are most important in\nforming habits of thought. The closest watch should be kept for early\nefforts at trains of reasoning. These efforts begin at the age of\nthree or thereabouts. They are often absurd and ludicrous, but they\nshould be treated with an indulgent and helpful respect, and wrong\nconclusions should be modified, not by contradiction, but by conviction\nof the contrary by example. If that is done, the child will learn to\ntrust his own powers of reasoning. If it is neglected, the child\u2019s mind\nwill become shallow and unenterprising.\n\nNo child that can talk is too young to be asked for his opinion.\nHe will enjoy stating it, and will, as a rule, receive protests or\ncontrary opinions with interest and amusement.\n\nAll this may be a \u201ccounsel of perfection\u201d to parents who are too busy\nto look after their infants themselves and are content to entrust\ntheir tender minds to more or less incompetent nurses. But the future\nwill realize more and more the great importance of the growing minds\nof infants. In the United States this is to a large extent the case\nalready, and, as a consequence, their infants are the brightest and\nmost delightful creatures imaginable.\n\n_Labour._\u2015\u2015In one of his earliest works, \u201cThe Time Machine,\u201d Mr. H. G.\nWells forecasts a development of the labour situation very different\nfrom that of the ordinary socialist Utopia. He figures an arrangement\nby which all labour is done underground, and is done by creatures (one\ncan hardly call them \u201cpeople\u201d) whose bodies and minds are thoroughly\nadapted to their task. The picture seems to be a skit on the Victorian\nidea of the \u201cfamily\u201d upstairs and the servants in the basement, but\na grim and novel touch is added by the information that the workers\nactually live on those that dwell in the light, coming up at night to\ntake them away in their sleep.\n\nSuch a solution, though it may draw some justification from the\nbee-hive or the ant-heap, is not at all likely to be adopted by the\nhuman race of the future. The essential service of Christianity, the\nkernel which will remain after the mythological and dogmatic accretions\nhave been shed, is to provide mankind with an imagination capable of\nconceiving and realizing the sufferings of other people and creatures,\nand the will to remedy or obviate them as far as possible. Through\ncenturies of abuse, neglect and misinterpretation that gift has\ngradually worked into the mass of civilized humanity. The humanitarian\nideal is explicit and articulate in France, while in England it is\ndisguised under such expressions as \u201cdecency\u201d and \u201cplaying the game,\u201d\nor \u201clive and let live.\u201d\n\nThat it has not yet remade the world is due mainly to two causes: the\narrogance of those to whom money or social position gives an advantage\nover smaller people, and the hatred and mistrust engendered by this\narrogance among the masses.\n\nA workman in a physically fit condition does not object to working. He\nsometimes feels the drudgery, boredom, or discomfort of it, but if he\nis a skilled craftsman, his pride in his work gives him an interest\nand satisfaction which helps him over many hours of toil. What he does\nobject to is to be driven and bullied by an unsympathetic and perhaps\nunjust overseer, who turns out the master on every occasion and lets\nhim feel his power. He wants and sometimes admires a leader, but he\ndoes not want a slave-driver.\n\nIn war, there is the same difference between the \u201ccome on\u201d officer and\nthe \u201cgo-on\u201d officer, and the same effect on discipline.\n\nI believe that the co-operation of larger organized masses of men will\nnot only be required in the future as in the past, but that its scale\nwill eventually exceed anything yet seen in our history.\n\nThe key to the smooth working of such organizations is the spirit in\nwhich the enterprise is undertaken. Let us give two examples, one from\nthe present day and one from, say, the year 2,000.\n\n(1) A.D. 1925:\n\n  (a) Navvies required. Apply Eastern Counties Railway Co.\u2019s Depot....\n\n  (b) Eastern Counties Railway Co., Ltd. The 250,000 5% Cumulative\n      Participating Preference Shares are now offered for public\n      subscription, payable as follows....\n\n\n(2) A.D. 2000:\n\n  Norfolk Water Supply Undertaking. A public meeting will be held\n      on ... at the Norwich Auditorium, to announce and explain the\n      purpose and plan of this Undertaking. Workers and Contributors\n      will be enlisted on terms to be announced at this meeting.\n      Qualification papers may be sent to the undersigned....\n\nIt is obvious that the \u201ccontributor\u201d who places his savings at the\ndisposal of the Undertaking must not only not lose them thereby, but\nmust be compensated according to the risk he runs. In effect, he\nprovides the manual worker with the food he requires to exert his\nstrength, and he does so without any immediate benefit to himself. If,\nafter the Undertaking had got to work, his \u201ccontribution\u201d were simply\nrefunded, he would receive no reward for his public service, a service\nwhich implied a reduction in his own resources. This would be unjust\nand would make his treatment worse than that of the wage-earner.\n\nTo this simple plea a Communist would rejoin that nobody should be\nallowed to have savings or accumulated resources or private property of\nany kind. The absurdity of this contention is very easily demonstrated,\nbut let us add a few hard cases to the usual arguments:\u2015\u2015\n\n(1) A tribe of shepherds requires water. There is one man who knows the\nlocation of a well. His knowledge is his private property, which he\noffers to sell for a number of cows. What should be done, if the man is\n(a) accessible and undefended; (b) inaccessible.\n\n(2) A girl has a beautiful head of hair, which could be sold abroad for\na considerable sum. Whose property is it?\n\n(3) In a small and isolated town, 20 per cent. of the inhabitants have\ngood sets of false teeth. Another 20 per cent. require false teeth, but\nhave no means of getting them. What will be the action taken by the\nCommunist municipality?\n\n                   *       *       *       *       *\n\nThe workman going to his work has quite a respectable capital to\naccompany him on his way. He has clothes to keep him warm, boots\nto save his feet from wearing out, a set of tools, perhaps, and\naccumulated stores of food in every muscle of his body. Even if his\nstomach is empty, he is still capable of work, although it will\nprobably be of inferior quality. There was a craze towards the end of\nlast century for living without food, the idea being that the body was\nnot nourished by food but by \u201cvibrations\u201d of some mysterious kind. The\ncraze, for obvious reasons, did not last long, but some prodigies of\nfasting were performed while it lasted, and the leaders of the movement\nprided themselves on doing their daily work and business as usual. The\ntruth was that, like the badger, they were living on their own fat and\nconsuming their own tissues. In the end they were thinner and sadder,\nbut little the worse otherwise.\n\nEverybody in a physically fit condition is necessarily a capitalist.\nThat arch-capitalist among the animals, the squirrel, jumps on the\nshoulders of the amiable Communists strolling in Regent\u2019s Park and then\ngoes to \u201crattle in his hoard of acorns.\u201d\n\nThere will be no discouragement of the acquisition of private property\nin the centuries to come, but care will be taken that the happiness\naccruing to the owner is not set off by misery inflicted on others.\nMisery due to mere envy or jealousy will not be considered, but, as\na matter of fact, there is much less of that than there is commonly\nsupposed. The spectators of the Lord Mayor\u2019s Show do not envy the Lord\nMayor his pomp and magnificence, but they are there to delight their\neyes with an unusual display. The crowds collecting at the church door\nto see the blushing bride do not come to turn green with envy, but to\nfeast their eyes on something exquisite and heartening to behold.\n\nAnd the work of the future, the labour of thousands on a great\nenterprise, will be accomplished in the spirit of adventure and\ncomradeship, like an Arctic expedition, let us say, and the distribution\nof rewards will be conducted in the same spirit as the prize-giving at a\nsports meeting.\n\nThe spirit of adventure is a most valuable incentive to work, an\nincentive that is much neglected at present. It is part of the\nworkman\u2019s grievance against capital that the capitalist has the\nadventurous part of the undertaking.\n\nThe need for adventure in everyday life is proved by the enormous\nprevalence of betting on horses, which is about the most stupid way\nof adventuring money that one can conceive. The prodigies performed\nunder some piece-work agreements show that it is not the quantity of\nwork that is felt as a burden, but the consciousness of being driven\nby a will other than one\u2019s own. Many schemes of profit-sharing also\nintroduce an element of chance which is most welcome to the worker,\nthough logically it should be under a proviso of loss-sharing in the\nsame proportion.\n\nA profit-and-loss-sharing understanding between employers and workers\nwould make every worker a capitalist. Indeed, as soon as the workers\n(or the State, it matters not which) are sufficiently organized to\nguard workers from undeserved destitution, it may be quite feasible\nto organize public undertakings without wages of any kind. Each\nworker would contribute \u201ccapital\u201d in the form of a certain amount of\nwork. In case of a total loss on the undertaking, he would receive no\nreward or wages whatever, any more than the capitalist who engages\nin a profitless scheme. If the undertaking succeeded, he would have\na permanent interest in the revenue from it, in proportion to the\nwork contributed. Since it is easier to assess the value of manual\npiece-work than mental work, it might well happen that, though no wages\nwere paid, salaries would be paid to organizers, architects, overseers,\nand the like, who would thus be the only \u201cproletarians\u201d in the concern!\n\n_Government._\u2015\u2015\u201cThe first duty of a Government is to govern.\u201d This\nplatitude sounds as if there were some hidden pearl of meaning behind\nit. But on etymological analysis we find that the duty of Government\nis to work the rudder of the ship of State. It is to give a general\ndirection to the activities of its citizens. The same or a similar\nword is used in all countries based upon Roman law and citizenship.\nThe German equivalent, _Regierung_, is different. It means reigning\nor doing the business of royalty, but as the origin of the word \u201cRex\u201d\nis the same as that of the main syllable of the words \u201cRector\u201d and\n\u201cDirector,\u201d it comes to the same thing, a \u201cdirecting\u201d action.\n\nWill this directing or controlling action ever become superfluous?\n\nIts chief function is at present to determine the policy of a large\naggregate of human beings. In democratic countries this determination\nis settled by a majority vote, from which there is no legal appeal,\nthough passive resistance or the threat of rebellion are weapons which\na minority can sometimes use with effect. A majority vote would be\npractically certain to be wrong on most questions of the day, but\nfortunately such a vote has no effect unless it is put into action by\na body of expert politicians comprising the Ministry, and these again\nare largely guided by experts in the particular matter with which the\nvote in question is concerned. Laws are not made by Parliament. They\nare born in Government offices under expert advice. The Cabinet, on\nthe advice of its experts, decides to bring in a Bill which is likely\nto be of some benefit, will probably be passed by Parliament, and\nwill encounter no serious resistance in the country. Our Government\nis thus really a Government by Experts, but is cleverly disguised in\nsuch a manner as to appear \u201cbroadbased upon the People\u2019s Will.\u201d A\nsimilar camouflage might very properly be adopted in the management of\nfactories and industrial enterprises. But the State is older than the\nFactory, and has learnt more wisdom.\n\nThe other primary function of government is the maintenance of public\norder\u2015\u2015in other words, the enforcement of the laws it has enacted.\nAmong the Medes and Persians, whose laws were never altered, this\nwas the main function of government. And in a non-progressive world\nthe task of keeping everyone \u201cin his place\u201d and preventing him from\nencroaching on his neighbours might well fill the whole sphere of\ngovernment. The Anarchist ideal of the abolition of all government\nis only possible if we can abolish the natural tendency of all\nliving things to expand and extend their sphere of action; or if\nwe can endow its neighbours with sufficient reserves of energy to\nbe able to oppose any undue expansion. If a motorist knocks down a\npedestrian, we discourage that undue extension of his sphere by a\nfine or imprisonment. If we could endow every pedestrian with the\nphysical power of stopping a car, say, by raising his hand; or if,\nalternatively, we could make him invulnerable, indestructible, and\nuntraversable, there would be no need for prosecutions, and Anarchism\nwould, in that particular case, become a possible system.\n\nThe idea of a government being something superior to ordinary humanity\nis somewhat ludicrous. In actual practice, government is the servant\nof the public, and not its master. There are countless cases of the\nprocess of law being used for private ends. The rule of conduct among\nsome powerful individuals and corporations is to \u201cgo on until you are\nstopped,\u201d in other words, to do what you like until somebody objects,\nor until you are stopped by the law. The law is thus used as a sort of\nindicator or \u201cautomatic cut-out\u201d much as an electrical engineer would\nuse a safety-fuse. The main difference is that the \u201cblowing\u201d of some\nparticular fuses leads to explosions and permanent damage, as when a\ncrime is committed.\n\nThe business of government is hard and sometimes very exacting work.\nOne can imagine some misdemeanant of the future being condemned to\ncarry on the government, or some important function of it, for so many\nmonths, as the most exacting form of hard labour.\n\nThis elementary fact has of late been recognized by most modern\nparliaments in the payment of their members. Government should be\nrecognized as a profession and rewarded as such. The late Mr. W.\nT. Stead\u2019s alternative to Democracy was an \u201cAutocracy tempered by\nAssassination.\u201d There is another alternative, viz., Bureaucracy\ntempered by Emigration. It is the system practised in such institutions\nas Proprietary clubs. Members are not worried to elect committees and\nhonorary officers. If they are satisfied with the management they\nremain in the club. If they are not, they join some other club. The\nsame process on a larger scale led to the foundation of the American\ncolonies and the United States. It is largely at work at the present\nday, but is complicated by all sorts of restrictions and difficulties,\nthe divergence of languages being one of the most serious obstacles. As\nintercommunication increases, the natural tendency to go where one can\nbe happiest\u2015\u2015_ubi bene, ibi patria_\u2015\u2015will no doubt come increasingly\ninto action, and will be a wholesome check upon the extravagances of\ncranky legislatures.\n\nBut I doubt whether there is any tendency at all of governments to\nbecome less effective. Almost every advance of science and invention\nmakes the maintenance of public order and security easier. The tracing\nof criminals by wireless telegraphy and broadcasting is a striking\nillustration of the aid science can give to the police. Almost\neverywhere science and invention are on the side of the established\norder. Although every researcher and inventor is, in a sense, a\nrevolutionary, in that his work is likely to produce immense changes in\nhuman activity, his general outlook tends towards aristocracy, since\nhe is imbued with the sense of the immense differences in the personal\nequipment of individuals, which no equalitarian sentimentality will\never wipe out.\n\n_The Farther Outlook._\u2015\u2015So far, we have looked but little ahead, a\ncentury at most. The prophet\u2019s task becomes more arduous as the time is\nextended. Historical guidance fails us. Familiar landmarks get blurred\nand disappear. We are in danger of getting lost in a bog of unreal\nspeculation. Yet the task has often been essayed, and it is necessary\nand desirable that it be essayed now and again. Let me make my own\nhumble attempt, in the light of what knowledge I have acquired and what\ngreat thoughts I have encountered in many lands and languages, and in\ndiscussions with many thinkers.\n\nWe must extend our time scale from centuries to millennia, and from\nmillennia to geological eras. Above all, we must take into account\nnot only the rapid advance of science and invention, but the constant\n_acceleration_ of that advance.\n\nThe consequence of that constant acceleration is that new developments\nand achievements succeed each other with bewildering rapidity. Hardly\nhave we got accustomed to the idea of telegraphy without wires when\nradio-telephony becomes an accomplished fact, and within a few years\nthere is a rich crop of listeners with their wireless receiving sets\ncounting by the million. An entirely new form of publicity comes into\nbeing, and a speaker on Savoy Hill is able to speak to an audience of\nmillions and sway them by his voice more effectively than he can do by\ncold print in the newspapers.\n\nAnd this is only a beginning. Communication will become closer and\nmore general. Already the earth is a network of lines and cables,\nlinking continent to continent. Soon a speaker will have the earth\nfor his sounding board and his hall of audience, and the privilege of\naddressing the human race will be prized above a coronation. Human\nsight and hearing will extend its range enormously, not only in space,\nbut in time also. For the cinema film and improvements in the recording\nof sound will make it possible to make minute and comprehensive records\nof past sights and sounds for future reproduction, so that nothing of\nany value may be lost.\n\nOther progress will go hand in hand with the rapid development of\n\u201csignalling\u201d communications, such as telegraphs and the like. The\ntransport of goods and passengers will rapidly gain in speed, comfort,\nand safety, until the whole earth becomes accessible to all. It will\nnot only become accessible, but also habitable. The tropics, the\noriginal cradle of the human race, will once more be reclaimed from\nour most formidable enemies of the insect-world and the ever-present\nbacterium. The higher organism will assert its much-contested supremacy\nover those minute organisms which owe their influence to mere numerical\nsuperiority. Our descendants will pay an afternoon\u2019s visit to Timbuctoo\nor Mount Ararat, much as we should visit the British Museum or the\nLake District. Everybody will be a globe-trotter, but the \u201cglobe\u201d\nwill not be confined to the ordinary tourist resorts. It will include\nevery part of the world, even the Poles. And wherever they go they\nwill find friendly voices, long familiar in the home through the\nservice of radio-telephony. There will, of course, be an international\nauxiliary language, understood everywhere, a language artificial in\nits structure\u2015\u2015every literary language is largely artificial\u2015\u2015but\nutilizing those roots which have already become part and parcel of all\ncultured languages. This will not mean the displacement or loss of\nnative languages which have proved their title to survival by their\nliterature.\n\nWar will not cease for perhaps a century or more. But it will\nfinally cease when the truth has sunk in that war is a loss to every\nbelligerent and to the whole world. Human rivalry and competition\nwill take other forms. There are many ways of killing men, women and\nchildren, besides suffocating them with chlorine. If a tribe is to\nbe exterminated, nobody will be killed, but all its members will be\npainlessly sterilized by X-rays or some such modern means, so that the\nnext generation will know them no more. It will be more humane than the\nBiblical expedient of \u201cdashing their children against a stone.\u201d\n\nThe mass of interconnections between human nations and individuals will\nbe like a closely-woven fabric. Even now, the digging up of a city road\nreveals a tangled network of water pipes, electric mains, gas pipes,\nand drain pipes suggestive of the dissection of an animal body. It is\nbut a faint foreshadowing of what is to come. The substratum of life\nwill become more and more complete as conscious life becomes simpler.\n\nNobody is conscious of the appalling complexity of his anatomical\norganization when using his body as a well-poised instrument of\nthought and intercourse. \u201cThe simple life\u201d is not the old-fashioned\ncountry life of England or the primitive life of savage humanity. Real\nsimplicity is constituted by the life in which most things are done\nby pressing a button, and a man can travel across a continent in such\ncomfort that on arrival at his destination all memories of his journey\nare dimmed or lost, and he can hardly recall having travelled at all.\n\nWe may, therefore, expect that, as facilities for intercourse become\nmore detailed and widespread, the effect will be, not to increase the\ntax on our nerve force until it becomes unbearable, but to increase our\narea of selection. There will thus be more consistency in our actual\ninterests and activities and more real harmony and leisure.\n\nThe unification of the planet which is being accomplished before our\neyes will have some astounding consequences. Mankind will assume a\ndefinite mastery of his home in the solar system. Attila could boast\nthat when he plunged his spear into the ground, the whole earth\ntrembled. The earth trembles even now to the electric signals of our\npowerful wireless stations. What will it be in a hundred or a thousand\nyears? In a hundred years the unification of the human race will be\ncomplete. The earth and the fulness thereof will be under the full\nmastery of man. All animal, vegetable and bacterial life will be kept\nwithin strict bounds in the interests of humanity. The earth will be\nunder one government, and one language will be written and understood,\nor even spoken, all over the globe. There will still be different races\nand perhaps allied nations, but travel and commerce will be free and\nunfettered, and calamities will be alleviated and dangers met by the\nunited forces of all mankind.\n\nAnd all the world will be _young_. The advances of medicine and surgery\nwill have been such that most of the ailments and limitations of old\nage will have been eliminated. Life will be prolonged at its maximum of\nefficiency until death comes like sunset, and is met without pain and\nwithout reluctance. There will be no death from disease, and almost any\nsort of injury will be curable.\n\nAnd in a thousand years? What will become of our globe and its dominant\nrace, if no great catastrophe occurs to stop its exponential curve\nof progress. But for that exponential curve and its tendency towards\nconstant acceleration, a thousand years would be no great period to\nforetell. Life has become world-wide in the last thousand years.\nThe intellectual outlook has increased with the area of travel and\ncommunication. Dogmas and shibboleths have lost their force. Art and\nscience have been emancipated from their ecclesiastical fetters. But\nthe immense leap made since coal came into its own as a world-force\nbelongs to our own age. The exhaustion of the coal-fields might slow\ndown progress for a time, but so long as mankind keeps its continuity,\nits past achievements and its rate of achievement will act as a\nstimulus and encouragement to further efforts, and new sources of\nenergy will be discovered and utilized.\n\nAnd so we may feel justified in expecting continual progress for\nat least a thousand years. Can we imagine the result? A globe laid\nout like a huge garden, with a climate under perfect control; the\ninternal heat of the earth brought to the surface and utilized as a\nsource of never-failing energy. Portions of the interior of the earth\nreclaimed and made habitable; all machinery and sources of power wisely\ndistributed and made instantly available for all legitimate purposes.\nThe earth\u2019s surface and the rippling ether in which it swims made\ninto a vast playground of human thought and emotion, and all mankind\nthrobbing in unison to every great thought.\n\n_The Earth will have become a sentient being._\u2015\u2015It will be as closely\nunified and organized as the human individual himself. Mankind will be\nthe \u201cgrey matter\u201d of its brain. It may not resemble a sentient being\nhigh up in the scale of life, but it will be at least on the level\nof _protococcus_ or some other such humble plant-cell, which also\nconsists of a minute proportion of material truly \u201calive\u201d together with\na greater bulk of stored foodstuff and waste products.\n\nMan will be conscious of his closer attachment to the earth. He will\nfeel towards it a sort of personal patriotism, or the sort of loyalty\nthat a veteran feels towards the Old Regiment. Specially exalted or\nsensitive people may even indulge in a kind of Geolatry animated by an\nold-world religious fervour.\n\nCan we focus our mental telescope into yet farther depths of time? A\nmillion years or so?\n\nIt seems rather risky to extrapolate our curves so far. But a million\nyears are but a span in the life of the earth. Its records speak to us\nof many millions. The chalk cliffs of Dover took several million years\nto deposit on a former sea-bottom, and many more to rise to their\npresent eminence.\n\nIf there is a still farther advance in the life of the earth, what\nsort of direction can it take? Will a new race have arisen, as much\nabove humanity as man is above the arboreal ape? Or will the further\ndifferentiation of man have come to a definite end, and progress be\nconfined to an ever-increasing richness of intellectual, artistic,\nand emotional life? If there is any progress at all, it must be by\n_effort_, and the question could be answered with fair probability,\nif we could find an incentive to effort after the earth is entirely\nsubdued. Such an incentive towards effort will lie in the ever-present\ndanger of a celestial catastrophe, such as a collision with one of the\nsmaller wandering planets or other denizens of outer space. It may\nbe that the earth will by that time be alive to its own peril, and\nwill take precautions! Its \u201cgrey matter\u201d\u2015\u2015our own descendants\u2015\u2015will be\nconfabulating and organizing in some great scheme of defence. The earth\nwill have to adopt a Foreign Policy, if it is to be the master of its\nfate for all time.\n\nHere our dreams are checked by the realization that among the older\nplanets of our solar system we can trace no activity attributable to\na \u201cforeign policy\u201d of their own. But we must remember that ours is a\nsmall planet, which has very little influence upon its neighbours in\nspace, and is certainly not a danger to them. If Mars, millions of\nyears older than ourselves, has arrived at such a stage of advancement\nthat it can think of transcending its own boundaries, it may make some\nattempt at communication, but the attempt might take the form which\nto us would be quite unrecognizable. Some observers thought that the\npersistent thunderstorms and magnetic disturbances experienced during\nthe last opposition over wide areas were signs of such an attempt, but\nthe coincidence may have been quite accidental.\n\nIn any case, we cannot find any sign of the Martians having succeeded\nin exercising any powers beyond the surface of their own planet,\nthough, if the \u201ccanals\u201d really exist, their engineering feats must be\ntruly stupendous.\n\nIt may be that the earth, owing to its position between torrid Mercury\nand ice-bound Neptune, enjoys conditions specially favourable to mental\nand physical advancement. And so it may happen that it will for\nimmense ages of time be the only planet to burst into consciousness.\nThus it may at some epoch find itself the undisputed master of the\nsolar system, and may be able to influence the other planets and make\nthem subservient in some way to its own needs.\n\nLet nobody think I am unduly optimistic about the future of this earth\nof ours. The difficulty lies rather in visualizing what recent and\ncurrent progress, and _accelerated_ progress, must inevitably bring\nabout when continued for a long time. The only doubtful element appears\nto be whether the magnificent _\u00e9lan vital_ of our race, which has\nenabled it to conquer the world, will last through the vast ages to\ncome.\n\nBut, fortunately, there is no sign of its exhaustion. Love is still\nthe ruling passion and inspiration of humanity, which enables men and\nmaidens to brave all the trials and dangers of life in unconscious\ndevotion to a future as yet unimagined and unborn.\n\n\n                   *       *       *       *       *\n\n\n Transcriber\u2019s Notes:\n\n \u2015\u2015Text in italics is enclosed by underscores (_italics_).\n\n \u2015\u2015Punctuation and spelling inaccuracies were silently corrected.\n\n \u2015\u2015Archaic and variable spelling has been preserved.\n\n \u2015\u2015Variations in hyphenation and compound words have been preserved.","title":"Quo vadimus? : $b Some glimpses of the future","tradition":"philosophy-ethics","translated_text":null,"word_count":12137}