{"collection":"philosophy-ethics","full_text_available":true,"graph_url":"https://unchartedknowledge.5gfusion.net/v2/api/page/gutenberg_76731/graph","html_url":"https://unchartedknowledge.5gfusion.net/v2/page/gutenberg_76731","id":"gutenberg_76731","license":"Public Domain (US)","rights_basis":"gutenberg_metadata_copyright_false","source":"gutenberg","source_url":"https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/76731","summary":null,"tags":["Category: Essays, Letters & Speeches","Category: Philosophy & Ethics","Category: Politics","Category: Psychiatry/Psychology","Category: Sociology","Category: Teaching & Education","Civilization","Progress"],"text":"SIBYLLA\n                                   OR\n                        THE REVIVAL OF PROPHECY\n\n\n\n\n                      _Most Popular Titles in the_\n\n                       TODAY AND TOMORROW SERIES\n\n\nTo those who are just beginning the TODAY and TOMORROW SERIES, the\nPublishers recommend the following volumes:\n\n    DAEDALUS, _J. B. S. Haldane_\n    CALLINICUS, _J. B. S. Haldane_\n    ICARUS, _Bertrand Russell_\n    WHAT I BELIEVE, _Bertrand Russell_\n    BIRTH CONTROL AND THE STATE, _C. P. Blacker_\n    LYSISTRATA, _Anthony Ludovici_\n    HYPATIA, _Mrs. Bertrand Russell_\n    PROMETHEUS, _Dr. H. S. Jennings_\n    THRASYMACHUS, _C. E. M. Joad_\n    MIDAS, _H. C. Bretherton_\n    PLATO\u2019S AMERICAN REPUBLIC, _J. D. Woodruff_\n    OUROBOROS, _Garet Garrett_\n\n\n            _For complete list of titles send for circular._\n\n\n\n\n                                SIBYLLA\n                                  _or_\n                        THE REVIVAL OF PROPHECY\n\n                                   BY\n                            C. A. MACE, M.A.\n\n                _Lecturer in Logic and Psychology at the\n                       University of St. Andrews_\n\n\n                             [Illustration]\n\n\n                                New York\n                         E. P. DUTTON & COMPANY\n                            681 Fifth Avenue\n\n\n\n\n                            Published, 1927\n\n                       By E. P. DUTTON & COMPANY\n\n                         _All rights reserved_\n\n\n                PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA\n\n\n\n\n                                FOREWORD\n\n\nCan Prophecy be a science? Science at any rate, appears to aim at\nprophecy. We are often told that the test of an hypothesis lies in\nthe events that it predicts; but it is a test that is much too rarely\napplied. We are surprised when Biologists apply it in a systematic way\nto the theory of evolution. Historians also tell us that the study of\nthe past will help us to foresee the future, but in their practice they\nhardly succeed in catching up to the present.\n\nThe organum of human knowledge, in fact, presents a curious spectacle\u2015\u2015a\nvast system of foundations but no sign of the edifice these foundations\nare to bear. At least such was the case until recently. In the little\nprophetic volumes recently published we can see, perhaps, the\npreliminary sketch of its imposing elevation.\n\nAnd so another question occurs. What is the future of prophecy?\nPsychical research may even yet surprise us. Latent powers of divination\nmay lurk in the human mind, but it is premature no doubt to look for\nenlightenment here. Less sensational but more significant is the\nemergence of the prophetic function in the work of science itself, and\nin the pedestrian progress of our general intellectual life in the\ntwentieth century.\n\nIt was this prophetic function of scientific thought which the author\nset out in this little book to investigate, but like other writers\nin the series he was tempted to \u201ctry out\u201d some tentative principles\nwhich seemed to promise well. Perhaps the future will reveal some\ninaccuracies in his forecast, but the digression has been worth while.\nOne thing, at least, is certain. Large scale organization extends to\nthe work of science. In our past experiments we have been too much\nconcerned with events of short duration, with the kind of results we\ncould obtain for rapid publication, and with cycles that fall within\nthe span of an individual life. Even now we have insufficient data to\ndecide whether cold winters come in periods of seventy or eighty years,\na ridiculously easy problem which a little organization would have\nsolved. But every year will add to the fund of carefully recorded data.\nMen are learning to co-operate through time. Experiments initiated by\nthe father are continued by the son, and succeeding generations will\nrecord the results.\n\nOrganization provides a workable alternative to the invention\nof Methuselahs; though it would simplify things considerably if\nNature could see her way to adopt the suggestion of Mr Shaw. More\nthan anywhere else perhaps this kind of organization is needed for\nsociological and biological experiment. By that way we shall obtain\nthe knowledge upon which scientific prophecy may be based. In the\nmeantime, let us speculate. Speculation is not a deadly sin, but an\naid to true perspective, and it is suggestive of good hypotheses.\nNor need our speculations, even now, be wholly in the air. We have\nthe broad tendencies of the past on which to base our forecast. The\ndanger lies in a premature attempt to elucidate the details. The older\nprophets tried to foresee particular events, the newer are content with\nthe general tendencies. Knowledge grows not like a crystal by minute\naccretions, but like a work of art, from outline down to detail guided\nby inspiration\u2015\u2015which, in science, is speculation.\n\n                                                            C. A. M.\n\n\n\n\n                                SIBYLLA\n                                   OR\n                        THE REVIVAL OF PROPHECY\n\n\n\n\n                                   I\n\n\nExperience enables us to defend in age the prejudices of our youth, and\nbelatedly to realize ambitions forsaken in earlier years. This would\nseem to be true not only of individuals but of institutions also.\n\nModern science, adolescent in the nineteenth century, shows signs\nof middle age; and with it that mellowed and urbane tolerance which\nfosters idealism and optimistic projects, projects which the realism\nand studied pessimism of youth declare to be beyond all powers of\nattainment.\n\nThe researches of Rutherford and his fellow-workers have disposed\nthe serious physicist to dally once more with the Philosopher\u2019s\nStone. Again we hope to transmute the baser metals into gold. Indeed,\nthe Philosopher\u2019s Stone is found. Japanese physicists claim that\na magnification 2,500 times of the produce of their experiments\nenables us actually to photograph the world\u2019s augmented gold-supply.\nFurthermore, the progress of knowledge concerning atomic structure\nand radiant energy promises to endow man with the powers and range of\ninfluence for which the magicians of old had such a notable though\nundeserved reputation.\n\nSince Freud, the interpretation of dreams has become a serious\npre-occupation of the grave and a further relaxation for the gay. I\nneed not, however, multiply examples. Let us turn forthwith to the\nlatest phase in this development\u2015\u2015the revival of prophecy.\n\nProphecy, of course, has never wholly died. Though the soothsayer fell\ninto disrepute and was banished from the temple precincts to earn\na precarious livelihood on Margate Sands, his mantle has fallen on\nMr Wells. Mr Wells, however, is merely a prophet of the transition,\nthe journalese precursor of a new and hardier race whose influence\nin the world I suspect will prove much greater. Like the modern\nprophets generally, he has substituted for revelation and intuition a\nthorough-going reliance upon the mundane intellect, fed upon scientific\ngeneralizations and historical particularities. Mr Bernard Shaw is\nanother of the transition prophets, having marked affinities to the\nnew Biological School; but, like the rest, is transitional in lacking\nthe regalia of office and authority with which the newer prophets are\nendowed.\n\nThe first of the prophets of the twentieth-century school was Mr J. B.\nS. Haldane. In _Daedalus_ we find a frank abandonment of the pose of\nscientific reserve about the future. Scientists generally for long had\nsaid that they were concerned only with verifiable facts. Newton, in\nparticular, had said quite publicly that he had no use for hypotheses;\nand his successors for the sake of their reputations had to keep up\nthe Newtonian manner. To distinguish themselves from journalists and\nphilosophers they avoided speculation like a plague. Now Haldane\nfound himself, I imagine, somewhat unduly constrained by this taboo.\nPursuing the most rigid methods of inquiry, he had come to conclusions\nabout some probable developments in the future, conclusions much less\nspeculative than many of the things it was his duty as a biologist to\nteach about the past. So he prophesied.\n\nThe relief in the scientific world was heartfelt and instantaneous.\nScientists and others, of various degrees of eminence, literally\nscrambled into Mr Haldane\u2019s bus. In the year or so that followed some\ntwenty prophetic volumes had been produced, and the publishers tell us\nof many others in the press.\n\nHowever, in many of these documents we fail to detect the authentic\nguiding hand, and these uncanonical works we must leave to the Higher\nCritics of the future. The genuine prophet is to be known by his\nstrictly impersonal manner. He tells you neither what he wants nor\nwhat he fears. So far as we can judge, he has no wants or fears. He\nmerely tells you what is going to be. Judged by this test we must, I\nthink, reject _Thrasymachus_, as purely propagandist. Mr Joad wants to\npopularize immorality. He tries to persuade us to join the ranks of\nthe libertines lest we be swamped in the coming Neopuritan revival. By\nthe same token we must, reluctantly, reject Mrs Bertrand Russell. In\n_Hypatia_ the quasi-prophetic r\u00f4le is assumed, we fear, merely as a\nvantage point from which to wage sex-war.\n\nComing to the genuine prophets, I would divide them into two kinds; the\nmechanists and the vitalists, not however, using these terms in their\ntraditional philosophical senses. The mechanists are those who view the\nfuture in terms of the development of machinery. Man, having a nature\nvery much what it is to-day, is seen in an environment of mechanical\nperfection, a world of wireless telegraphy, television, fuelless\ntraffic, moving pavements, rubber roads, windows of flexible glass,\nrustless metals, dustless and smokeless cities, and private houses fit\nfor a plumber\u2019s paradise.\n\nThe vitalists, of whom I take Mr Haldane to be the leading spokesman,\nhave a message in the face of which the wonders of wireless are\nrelatively tame. The time has come, they say, when our science and\nour inventive genius are to be applied to life itself. In a sense, of\ncourse, the journalists and men of letters got in first. Kapek with his\nRobots made the idea dramatic; but the mechanical tradition was too\nstrong. The Robot was little more than clockwork. Wells\u2019s \u201cMen like\nGods\u201d are perhaps a slight advance, but the gods are all too human,\nand a bit too much like Mr Wells. Shaw, I think, got nearest. In _Back\nto Methuselah_ the problem of biological invention was approached in a\nmore biological manner. But all these are prophets of the transition.\nThey are at heart Utopians, and neglect the evidences of the present\nupon which the forecast must be based.\n\n\n\n\n                                   II\n\n\nIt would tempt us too far afield to inquire into the logical foundations\nof the new science of \u201cProphetics\u201d, as no doubt this branch of learning\nwill be called. A young science must not at first aim at too much\nsystematic order, nor be too introspective. Let us, rather, glance into\nthe future and try to fill in the larger of the empty spaces in the\nvision so far presented to our eyes.\n\nWe can readily grant at the outset all that the mechanists claim. In\nfact, there is nothing, I think, unlikely in the suggestion that, so\nfar as mechanical invention is concerned, we are approaching the time\nwhen all that is physically possible will be realized. The future\ncustomer at Selfridges\u2019 who inquires for a teleofactor in order to\nsmell the perfumes of Arabia will be told that the impossibility of\nthis has now been finally proved. For the rest of his desires, however,\nhe will be quite amply supplied. He will have perfect wireless concerts\nand televisual cinemas; he will be conveyed by the morning aerial\nPullman from his villa-palace in Devonshire to his office in what was\nonce the Strand. To his Club or restaurant he will proceed by a moving\npavement, or in a bath-chair propelled by radiant power. His week-ends\nmay be spent in Samarkand or in tobogganing on Mount Everest. His wife,\ntoo, will benefit by this universal progress. Her day\u2019s work will be\ndone by 9 a.m. The turning of a tap or two will nourish the ectogenetic\nchild foretold by Mr Haldane, and the pressing of a button will put in\naction the automatic cook. By wireless communication with Paris she\nwill choose a garment, to be delivered by an aerial messenger boy upon\nhis cycloplane. After luncheon she will, again by wireless, put herself\nin visual and auditory contact with other members of the society to\nwhich she belongs. It will probably be a society for the revival of\ntwentieth-century customs.\n\nBut, granting all this, the obvious question occurs. What will be\nits effect upon human nature? Is it conceivable that the perfecting\nof machinery could leave it unaffected, and will not inevitably\nthis inventive genius be turned upon man himself? Our future man of\nbusiness who, by improved modes of locomotion, spends his week-ends\nin Tennessee, Kikuyu, or Zanzibar (according to his religious\npredilections), will he enjoy only the advantages of mechanical\ninvention? Surely a perfected Pelmanism will enable him to learn three\nnative languages on the Friday\u2019s journey out, and an improved process\nof repression assist him to forget them on the Sunday evening\u2019s\njourney home.\n\nThis is not entirely idle speculation. Applications of science to the\ncontrol of the human mind have already begun. They started, perhaps, in\nthe crude and blundering experiments in Scientific Management. They are\ngroping towards more solid foundations in Industrial Psychology\u2015\u2015the\nphilosophical significance of which has, up to the present, escaped the\nattention it deserves.\n\nConsider briefly the course of this movement up to the present date.\nSometime in the eighties Taylor introduced his principles of Scientific\nManagement. Some ingenious spirit, indirectly inspired no doubt by\nhim, produced the following invention for organizing the activities\nof man. A certain American establishment paid its employees on the\nbasis of \u2018task work\u2019, i.e. upon piece rates with a time-limit for\nthe performance of the unit-task. The worker was paid a 25% bonus on\nthe ordinary wage for the performance of his task, but the task and\ntime-setter was paid a bonus based upon the number of men who failed\nto earn their bonuses. The apparent disadvantage to the worker,\nhowever, was counterbalanced by providing him with a foreman who also\nwas paid upon the basis of the number of men under him who \u2018made\ntheir tasks\u2019. As Muscio[1] comments, \u201cThe situation then was this:\nThe workman was given a bonus as an incentive to expend intense\nefforts to accomplishing a task in a set time; the foreman was given\n\u2018blood money\u2019 to drive the man if he became slack, and the task and\ntime-setter was also paid \u2018blood money\u2019 to set the times so short that\n\u2018the making of the tasks\u2019 involved an expenditure of more than the\ngreatest reasonable amount of energy.\u201d The Trade Unions got to know of\nthis, with the result that Scientific Management of that sort is now\nas dead as mutton. Public interest subsides. But in principle it was\nright\u2015\u2015right in the sense that its inventor had a glimpse of something\nwhich is ultimately going to prove effective. He made the mistake which\nprobably every inventor makes. He constructed a machine with the power\nto blow itself up; but this only shows that power is there, and power\nto be controlled. The mistake, of course, was a natural one to make\nfor people preoccupied with the parallelogram of forces. Another case\nsupplies the necessary comment and indicates a more hopeful line of\nexperiment.\n\n  [1] Muscio, _Lectures on Industrial Psychology_, p. 39 (Routledge).\n\n\u201cThere was in operation for some years at the leper colony off the\nPhilippine Islands a system of weekly gratuities to each man, woman,\nand child confined to the island colony. From the women and children\nno accounting for the subsidy was required. But from the men a certain\namount of manual labour about the island was exacted upon penalty of\nhaving the pocket-money withheld. From the administrative point of\nview this had seemed an easy solution for the difficult problem of\ngetting adequate labour in an isolated place inhabited largely by\nthe victims of a dread disease. But the men patients took vigorous\nexception to this form of compulsory labour, and finally made complaint\nabout it to the Philippine Government. An investigation into the unrest\nat the leper colony was instituted, and the Secretary of the Interior\nvisited the island and heard all the complaints in person. As a result\nof his study the system of gratuities for the men was wiped out. And\nthe necessary work on the island was paid for at an agreed rate which,\nit appeared later, was less than the previous gratuity. Nevertheless,\nthe men found the new system preferable; there was no more complaint,\nthe necessary work was done; the men who were inclined to work received\ntheir stipends and the others not. But from that day to the present\ntrouble on this score has been unheard of.\u201d[2]\n\n  [2] Ordway Tead, _Instincts in Industry_, p. 1.\n\nMore systematic were the investigations in this country made under the\nMinistry of Munitions. In the Interim report of 1917 of the Health\nof Munition Workers Committee we find the following reference to\nincentives in industry:\n\n\u201cIt is essential that the wage system should be equitable and easily\nunderstood by the workers. The evidence collected leaves no doubt that\na wage system the operation of which cannot easily be understood by\nthe wage earners ... fails to serve as an incentive.\u201d\n\nIn fact, the evidence in detail rather suggests that it is more\nimportant for the system to be intelligible than it is for it to be\njust. As in the case of the Philippine lepers a reduction of wages may\nin certain cases be the shortest remedy for industrial discontent, just\nas the reduction of working hours has often been found to involve an\nincrease in production.\n\nMore important, however, than juggling with the systems of remuneration\nis concentrated upon the subtler psychological factors in the\nsituation. Politicians, artists, bishops, and many members of the\nworking-classes are played upon by forces which act more powerfully\non their energies than any system of wages that could be applied to\nthem; the ambitions and interests of their wives, the health of their\nchildren, the criticism or adulation of their associates and a host of\nother factors of curious psychological interest. Is it beyond the wit\nof man to apply these forces in a scientific way?\n\nOne very instructive attempt was that of another American establishment,\nwhich instituted the office of \u2018plant mother\u2019. \u201cIt is her duty\u201d (as Tead\nputs it), \u201cusing this motherly disposition and attitude as an entering\nwedge, to go among the men and help to straighten out their troubles\nwith the management. And one of the most successful weapons of appeal\nwith her is said to be that she puts employ\u00e9es\u2019 problems in family\nterms. For example, a man will want to quit because of a slight ruction\nwith a fellow-worker or a superior, whereupon she will remind him that\nhis little Johnny should not be forced by father\u2019s unemployment to leave\nschool to go to work, or that another baby is coming in a couple of\nmonths and that he mustn\u2019t cause anxiety to \u2018the wife\u2019.... This\nparticular \u2018plant mother\u2019, I am told, has been instrumental in reducing\nthe labour turnover to an astonishing extent.\u201d[3]\n\n  [3] Tead, _op. cit._, p. 28.\n\nMy readers will be able to think of many other possible applications\nof this principle. Cannot our domestic parrot be turned to economic\nadvantage? Its present function would seem to be only that of\npreserving the unity of private family life by giving its jaded members\nsomething to laugh and talk about when the bonds of common interest\nand filial piety are beginning to wear thin. That which preserves the\nfamily from disruption and armies from revolt will surely soon be\ndedicated to the cause of peace in industry.\n\nTo these things we are gradually and insensibly being led, so gradually\nand insidiously as to evade the inhibitory sense of the ludicrous.\nAlready it is known that light, ventilation, and the general comfort\nof the worker are relevant to production. By slight and inexpensive\nchanges in these respects output may be augmented say 3.5 or even 10\nper cent, and the worker suffers less from nervous irritability and is\nless punctual in paying his subscription to his union. At any moment it\nmay be found that hanging pictures on the workshop walls has a similar\neffect. Possibly Landseer\u2019s would raise efficiency and contentment only\n1 per cent, whilst Sargent\u2019s would really justify their auction prices.\nWe should then discover a more satisfactory policy with regard to our\nNational Galleries. We should go to Port Sunlight to see good pictures\nand the Royal Academy would become the testing hall for experiments in\nindustrial art.\n\nAll this is coming about no longer by mere chance or blind experiment,\nbut by the operation of a principle which I take as a foundation\nstone for prophecy. Man has slowly and painfully acquired facility in\nadopting the scientific attitude of mind. Gradually he has been able to\nachieve this point of view in relation to the material universe. But\nhe finds a peculiar difficulty in being scientific in the face of the\nanimate; and the difficulty would appear to be almost insuperable in\nthe face of mind. It is because we are living at a time when the feat\nis being accomplished that I feel impelled to prophesy an important\nrevolution, a revolution beside which the Bolshevic incident, for\ninstance, is dwarfed to almost comical insignificance.\n\nThe revolutionists are level-headed but far-seeing men of business,\nacting in alliance with the scientists. Here is their programme as\nvoiced by Professor Catell in 1903.\n\n\u201cIt is our business to make both a science and an art of human nature.\nAs in the physical world we select first the material suited to our\npurpose, and turn the iron into steel, and temper the steel for a\nknife, so in the world of human action we must learn to select the\nright man, to educate him and fit him for his exact task. This indeed\nwe try to do in all our institutions, religions, commerce, system\nof education, and government. But we work by rule of thumb\u2015\u2015blind,\ndeaf, and wasteful. The nineteenth century witnessed an extraordinary\nincrease in our knowledge of the material world, and in our power to\nmake it subservient to our ends; the twentieth century will probably\nwitness a corresponding increase in our knowledge of human nature and\nin our power to use it for our welfare.\u201d[4]\n\n  [4] Homo Scientificus Americanus: _Science_, April 10, 1903.\n\nLet us note the implications of this programme. At present we have made\nbut a few experiments and a few discoveries in industrial psychology.\nThe future, however, is to see the principle applied to education,\ncriminology, government, war, perhaps religion and the intimate\npersonal life of man.\n\nCan we foresee the consequences? To some extent, I think, we can. As Dr\nFournier d\u2019Albe puts it in the first of his prophetic volumes,[5] we\nhave but to extrapolate the curves of present developments into the\nfuture. We must, however, also take into account so far as possible\nsome of the other factors at work. The general course of evolution\nis in outline known to be one of differentiation, specialization,\nintegration, growing consciousness of ends, and substitution of\nsystematic experiment in place of blind trial and error. We shall\nfind other clues which, carefully studied, enable us to speak\nabout the future with at least as much assurance as biologists and\nanthropologists enjoy in speaking about the remoter past. We shall,\nmoreover, have the added benefit of finding confirmation in the years\nto come.\n\n  [5] _Quo Vadimus._\n\n\n\n\n                                  III\n\n\nFacts brought to light in the sphere of industry have an application in\npolitics, so to politics and the arts of government let us turn. Let\npoliticians consider, for example, the discovery that the incidence\nof shell-shock in war, and of nervous disorders in peace, is highest\nin the dangerous occupations which are also the occupations most\nliable to industrial unrest. Such facts prevent us from viewing the\ndiscontented worker either as a martyred idealist, or as a mere\ncriminal. The case is paralleled by the suggestion that desertion and\nmalingering in exhausted armies are symptoms or \u2018defence reactions\u2019 in\nincipient shell-shock. They force upon us a more dispassionate and\na more therapeutic point of view. The criminal in general is coming\nto be regarded in this light. Turn now to the anarchist, and the\npsycho-analyst explains to you that his activities are minor symptoms\nof his \u2018father complex\u2019, which imprisonment, for example, will merely\nintensify.\n\nFrom knowledge of the conditions of these things proceeds control.\nPossibly punitive measures may be genuinely counteracting causes.\nPerhaps, however, empirical science may declare that the best treatment\nfor an anarchist is to make him a Lord Mayor, and the best remedy for\na militant labour party is a term of office judiciously supervised by\nour permanent officials. The future student of social affairs will be\npreoccupied with the scientific investigation of the sources of power\nand its social reservoirs. The \u2018party in power\u2019, as it is charitably\ncalled, has not much of it. Public opinion seems to have much more. In\nfact, the chief function of a government, now-a-days, seems to be that\nof carrying out the programme of the opposition.[6] The opposition is\nrelatively free from criticism; the Government moves in dread of it,\nbeing threatened by attrition in its bye-elections and by a general\nlandslide at any appeal to the country.\n\n  [6] We have recently witnessed a paralysed Labour Government\n      incapable of carrying out its projected remedies for industrial\n      ills, and a Conservative Government maintaining a system of\n      Free Trade.\n\nUnder such conditions the essential tasks of government are very much\nthe same of whatever political colour the party in power may be. First\nand foremost it has to deal with emergencies, whether spontaneously\narising or organized by the opposition, in such a way as to preserve\nits popularity with the public. It has also to carry out more or less\nefficiently the routine work of government, and it has to prepare for\nthe next election by enshrining its most permanent tactical advantages\nwithin the framework of the Constitution. Any time and energy that may\nbe left can be devoted to carrying out its \u2018programme\u2019 and in dealing\nwith what it conceives to be the fundamental disorders of society.\n\nA \u2018party programme\u2019, like a dream, has a manifest and a latent\ncontent. The manifest content is drawn from the incidents of the\nday and popular demands. The latent is constituted by those deeper\npolicies for the furtherance of which this clap-trap may be closed. The\ndistinction between the manifest and the latent content is not due,\nas is frequently asserted, to mere political dishonesty but to the\nnecessities of the case; the primitive group mind\u2019s need of a \u2018Cause\u2019\nand of an outward and visible sign of an inward and spiritual economic\ndoctrine. With the increased complexity and scientific character\nwhich the latent content is, in future, likely to assume political\nsacramentalism will become more and more important.\n\nHow will this affect the issue of our present discontents? Viewing the\nsituation frankly, we find in society two powerful and opposed forces.\nLet us adopt the convenient labels and call them Capital and Labour.\nIt would take us too far afield to discuss in detail the prospects of\nsuccess in each of the various remedies suggested for their enmity.\nIn general, it seems to me that all the proposals depend for their\nsuccess upon large-scale persuasion, and ignore the fundamental causes\nof unrest and conflict. Even labour, it seems to me, is mistaken about\nthe causes of its troubles, and labour might be expected to know them\nbest. But even to ask this would be as unreasonable as to ask a patient\nto diagnose and prescribe for his own disease. The solution, I venture\nto think, will come along the lines upon which the only solution of\nany problem has ever before been found\u2015\u2015along the lines of exact and\nscientific thought and piecemeal investigation. The recognition of\nthis combined with attention to the apparent power of public opinion\nin modern politics has led many to suppose that the ultimate remedy\nlies in the dissemination of education, of exact and scientific\nthought throughout our great democracies. But, personally, I doubt\nthe possibility of disseminating anything, least of all scientific\nhabits or attitudes of mind. It would seem to violate the rule of\ndifferentiation. Nor can I bring myself to believe that there ever\nwas or is ever likely to be a democracy in any important sense. It is\nsufficient if this scientific spirit be exploited by those who hold\nthe reins of power, and it is because it seems that they are beginning\nto see the possibilities of this that I think the really significant\nrevolution is to come. What is called \u2018Public Opinion\u2019 is now-a-days a\ncarefully manufactured article produced by firms entirely outside the\nscope of the Factory Acts. Of course, even a despotism is a \u2018democracy\u2019\nin the unimportant sense that the despot\u2019s rule depends upon a certain\nkind of consent. What has happened lately is that a new kind of leader\nhas been evolved. The old leader ruled by certain kind of obvious\nstrength. The new ruler practices an art. He is moreover, a student of\nthe science of persuasion. He appeals through various media directly\nto the masses, and does not so much inspire confidence as suggest that\nhe is only a more articulate spokesman of their will. The contrast\nis rather like that between coercion and hypnotism, two obvious ways\nof making people do as you wish; and the transition from one to the\nother does not seem to me to be adequately described as a passage to\ndemocracy.\n\nThe future, it seems, will see these powers scientifically employed.\nMuch has been learnt by crude empirical methods. The newspapers, the\nadvertising agencies, and the publicity departments have a store of\nknowledge upon which politicians are wisely beginning to draw. Soon\nthey may attend to Mr Bertrand Russell, who in his prophetic volume,\nforesees the development of glandular psychology. We know that by\nsuitable injections a person\u2019s emotional mood can be changed, and\nRussell suggests that a simple operation like compulsory vaccination\nwill convert the reddest Bolshevic to the temperament of the mildest\ncurate. The glands of docility will be under government control.\n\nThe suggestion appears to me to be over-simple, and to belong to\nthe mechanistic type of prophecy. Its supreme simplicity is in this\nconnection its supreme defect. The only defence against democracy is a\ncomplicated mode of government. If methods of government are foolproof\nthen any one can practice it; and a sudden _coup d\u2019\u00e9tat_, or an\ninvasion of half-a-dozen uninoculated savages, would be an irrevocable\ndisaster.\n\nIt is, I think, mainly through the development of scientifically\nconducted propaganda that the world may one day see the abandonment of\nforce. No wholesale change of heart will be involved. It will simply be\nthat a more efficient weapon will have been discovered, a weapon that\nis preventive as well as corrective in its use.\n\nThe military mind is, it is generally agreed, conservative to the verge\nof sheer stupidity, but even the military mind is becoming infected\nwith the new ideas. Under the influence of Captain Liddel Hart, the\nmilitary representative of the prophetic school with which we are\nconcerned, it will surely come to recognize \u201cthe moral objective of\nwar.\u201d[7] Even this author is conservative, in regarding tanks and\naeroplanes as being the principal weapons of the future. With regard\nto the immediate future he may be right. But the implication of his\ngeneral thesis is that all these weapons will ultimately give place to\nsubtler ones of psychological design. Hardly less effective than the\n\u2018death ray\u2019 in bending the enemy\u2019s will is the rumour that one has been\ninvented. And rumours can be invented daily in His Majesty\u2019s Office\nof Propaganda. And why stop at the control of fear? Why not apply\npsychology throughout the whole of the enemy\u2019s mental life? Perhaps,\nin the last of all wars to end war, victory will fall to the side\nwhich first makes its enemy laugh. The power of a sense of humour, at\nany rate, is a terrible weapon in the negotiation of peace. Our late\nenemies would scarcely have fared so badly had they been less sparingly\nendowed with it in war.\n\n  [7] See _Paris, or the Future of War_.\n\nHumour has its applications in peace as in war. Under universal\nScientific Management, the Government will vie with the underground\nrailways for the control of public laughter. The Catholic Church, in\nenlisting the aid of Chesterton and Ronald Knox against its irrefutable\nbut dreary adversaries, has for once in modern history placed itself in\nthe vanguard of a winning cause.\n\nThe weapon has curious possibilities, but is one difficult to employ.\nQuick wits sensitive to the trend of fashion are the essential\nqualifications for a Minister of Public Humour. For the joke is the\nmost ephemeral of all works of art. It takes years of patient research,\nnow, to see the jokes of classical antiquity, and pages of solemn\nargument to defend the taste of Shakespeare in his humour. Differences\nof humour separate age from age and class from class. It is the weakest\nlink which binds the intellectuals to the cause of labour. One might\nexpect this weapon to favour established institutions, for only the\nfat and prosperous can laugh with merriment, but by the same token the\njokes of Marie Antoinette were unintelligible to the hungry. Therefore\nthe lean and plodding journalists will come into their own and take\ntheir place among the expert advisors to the future Ministry of Talents.\n\n\n\n\n                                   IV\n\n\nEducation will perhaps be one of the most interesting fields of\nfuture scientific management. At present we know a few bits of a few\nsciences, and a handful of historical facts. We fill the picture out\nwith theories and blunderingly try to make other people memorize these\nthings. We call the process Education. We have invented a few devices\nfor discovering what they forget, and call them Examinations. Recently\nwe have invented a few tricks of exposing what they cannot do, and\nwe call them Mental Tests. We wrap it all up in a tangle of loose\nphilosophy, and we call it The Science of Education. We profess, it is\ntrue, some loftier pursuits. We are trying, we say, to teach our pupils\nto think. We try to mould their characters, and we try to produce good\ncitizens.\n\nBut what does it all amount to in the end? The most successful way\nyet discovered of teaching people to think is for the teacher himself\nto think aloud, and hope that his pupils will catch the knack. How\ndo we set about moulding the character of a child? By moral precept,\ngood example, healthy sport, uplifting atmosphere, and an unprincipled\napplication of punishment and reward. Our children are bored by\nprecepts. They yawn in our presence and make fun of our precepts in\nour absence; they break out at the first opportunity and \u201csow their\nwild oats\u201d, and then rediscover our old morality for themselves. The\nmore adventurous invent a new one of their own, probably a finer thing\nthan that we tried to teach. Our good examples produce two alternative\neffects. If the child happens to like us, he will imitate our actions,\nand morality becomes an empty mimicry. Perhaps, on the other hand,\nwe have an unfortunate mannerism or some innocent resemblance to a\nforgotten terror, and the child dislikes us. The good example is taken\nas a pattern of the thing to be avoided. By counter-suggestion he takes\nthe opposite course so far as in him lies. The sons of clergymen might\nprovide us with material for a theory of moral education.\n\nOur healthy sports\u2015\u2015but why go on? It is not my intention to ridicule\nthe best things that the wisdom of the ages has produced. My only\ncontention is that our methods of education are hopelessly tentative,\nuncertain in their effects, justifiable only on the ground that we\ncannot yet see clearly anything else to do. But things will change.\nAlready there _is_ a science of education, because people with\nscientific minds are thinking about the problems it presents. They\nare experimenting, and they are at least disclosing our ignorance.\nExperiments similar to those of Scientific Management are producing\nsimilar results. We are beginning to know important things about\nthe mind, its natural development, and the method by which it works.\nAlready we know a good deal about the conditions of remembering, enough\nat least to condemn, if we dared to think out the implications of our\nknowledge, many venerable educational practices. Some of the most\nimportant of our discoveries fall readily into line with the results of\nIndustrial Psychology. There seems, for example, to be a natural rate\nof working appropriate in learning, appropriate rhythms of impression,\nrest and recall, by the operation of which knowledge becomes firmly\nembedded in the mind. When these rhythms are ignored, the evil effects\nof cramming are produced. Our educational methods in the school and in\nthe university break and crush all these rhythms, and students pass\nout into the world with mutilated minds.\n\nThe rhythms of life, however, present in every field possibilities of\nextensive modification. That many needs demand a rhythmic satisfaction\nis well known, but there is scope for detailed investigation and\nexperiment here. None of these natural periods seem to be absolutely\nfixed beyond all power of alteration. The rhythms of digestion probably\nvary with the fashions of the age and class, according as high teas\nor late dinners are in fashion. They might under certain conditions\nhave depended upon the tides; and changes in our habits of taking\nnourishment would probably produce most interesting variations.\n\nWhy should we sleep throughout the night, and work throughout the day?\nOur habits in this respect were formed in the days before fire was\nstolen from the gods\u2015\u2015and they are wasteful habits, too. Artificial\nlight one day may easily come to be as cheap as water, and man will\nchange his ways of taking rest. Some experimenters urge that the most\nvaluable part of sleep is in the first few minutes. The remainder of\nthe night we spend in dreams and in gradually waking up. Let us apply\nthe principle of rest-pauses in a thorough-going way. Distributed\nperiods of sleep might prove a great economy. People will be taught to\nrecline say once in every two hours, and sleep for twenty minutes. Thus\nwill be inaugurated the twenty-four hour day, and a race of energetic\nNapoleons will emerge.\n\nBut to return to general education. Why should the period of learning\nbe concentrated wholly in the early years of life? Distributed periods\nof study will undoubtedly prove more effective, say two hours every\nday, or two days every week, or, if you like, two continuous months in\nthe year throughout the whole of life. Thus might come the solution to\na variety of problems. We have, first of all, the problems of education\nitself. At present we arrange the life of a child so that a period of\nintensive cramming is followed by the abrupt cessation of intellectual\nlife at the time when the intellect is just beginning to mature. There\nis the problem of industrial fatigue, due more often to monotony than\nto arduous labour. Recent researches afford scientific support to\nthe adage that a change of work is as good as a holiday. Educational\npursuits will provide the necessary change. Already many working men\nspend their evenings at classes and their only holiday at a summer\nschool.\n\nLastly there is the ever-growing problem of the prolongation of\ninfancy. Under simpler conditions a child was adequately equipped\nfor practical purposes by the age of ten or even younger. Now-a-days\nfourteen years is considered necessary, whilst the professional man is\nalmost thirty before he is fit to earn a living\u2015\u2015and still there is\nmore to learn.\n\nGiven successful scientific research in this direction, back we go\nto the methods of the early days of the Industrial Revolution with\nchildren employed in every factory. Under rational supervision it may\nprove a great advance. The moral education which practical life alone\ncan give will commence at the proper time. Children will be protected\nfrom the dangers of neglectful or over-solicitous parents. They will\nacquire at an early age the much-required sense of responsibility and\nindependence, and their parallel work at school will acquire some\nsemblance of significance and interest.\n\nIn addition to new rhythms and periods of study, new methods will be\nemployed. Probably the curriculum itself will be the first thing to\nbe revised. In spite of a good deal of relevant knowledge, no one has\nyet consistently thought out an answer to the question: What should a\nchild be taught? Freed from the assumptions of faculty-psychology and\nfrom its present entanglements with external systems of examination,\nthe course of studies prescribed for the ordinary child would omit much\nthat is now included and include much that is now ignored. Moreover,\nthe order of presentation both of subjects and of the material in each\nsubject will undergo extensive alteration. Changes in this respect\nhave already well begun, and changes blindly initiated move towards\nenlightenment.\n\nThings are moving towards a triple control of the individual life,\none that roughly corresponds to the old control of the Church and\nState, with the added partnership of organized industry. To the modern\nrepresentative of the Church\u2015\u2015whatever ultimate form this institution\nmay take\u2015\u2015belongs the function of guiding the individual for his own\npersonal good. It is a service which the Church might easily have\ncontinued to perform, but for its insistence upon doctrinal terms.\nWhat was in effect a kind of strike of the religious ministry, met by\nboycott on the side of the general public, has led to the development\nof black leg service on the part of psychoanalysis and disinterested\nteachers. At present the organization manifests all the muddle of an\nemergency supply. Children in over-crowded schools cannot obtain\nadequate individual guidance, and the work of the psychoanalyst\nis curative only in exceptional cases, and not, as it should be,\nuniversally preventive. Nevertheless, feeling moves in the direction of\nagreement that something more must be done, though as yet nothing like\na constructive policy of personal guidance has emerged.\n\nThe activities of the State in this connection are likely to increase.\nIn earlier days a man could be born, could live and die in comparative\nprivacy. Now, official notice is taken at least of his birth, his\nmarriage, his income, most of his crimes, some at least of his\ndiseases; and his death, too, is registered. The registration of\nparticulars about the individual will extend to educational records,\nabilities and disabilities, and of all that is relevant to his social\nlife. Much of this will be done by institutions of the kind which our\npresent \u201cvocational bureaus\u201d dimly and crudely foreshadow. Ultimately\na public service more or less State-controlled will be developed to\nmediate between Education and Industry. When life becomes more fully\norganized into a system of interlacing rhythms, the unit of the\nsecondary Educational System will be an institution embracing factory,\nschool, and clinic under a single board of control with its industrial,\neducational and medical representatives; and the threefold plan will\nno doubt be adopted in both the higher and lower grades.\n\nEarly in life some of the main tendencies and abilities of the child\nwill be diagnosed and he will be sent to the appropriate school and\nindustry. Doubtful and obscure cases will, with the \u201callround\u201d types,\nbe sent for a \u201cgeneral education\u201d, in the course of which, however,\nthey will come under more careful examination. By the age of ten\nor twelve the child\u2019s future course should in outline and general\ncharacter be fairly clearly known, and by sixteen he will have become\nmore or less specialized to a certain type of course. Not, however,\ncompletely specialized. To meet the problem of trade-fluctuations and\nconsequent unemployment, and as a preventive of industrial monotony,\neach person will probably be taught a variety of pursuits, achieving\na balance appropriate to each case of mental and manual work. The\nsystem of multiple vocations would probably be operated in conjunction\nwith some form of industrial conscription; for increased wisdom in\ngovernment should by this time have undermined popular prejudice on\nthis score.\n\nAt the prospect of such extensive changes in our educational\ninstitutions one wonders what is going to happen to our ancient and\nvenerable universities. They might, consistently with all that has\nbeen said, preserve their functions as specialized seats of learning;\nbut it is more likely that long before a rational system of education\nhas been evolved they will have changed their character beyond all\nrecognition. In optimistic, but perhaps short-sighted, moments, it is\ncommonly supposed that with the increasing demand for education their\nfuture is assured, and that they will assume ever-increasing importance\nand enjoy ever-growing popularity and respect.\n\nLet us, however, for a moment consider the instructive parallel of the\nHoly Catholic Church, the unfortunate history of which is a byword at\nthe present day. The causes of its decline do not, I think, include\none that is frequently suggested. Men are not to-day less religious\nor less in need of its holy offices. The change has come about not\nby decreased demands but by competition and an augmented supply. Men\nstill need the things of which the Church once held an almost complete\nmonopoly. They need some sort of philosophy, some personal guidance in\nthe difficult art of the moral life, and many other things which once\nthe Church alone could give.\n\nThe invention of the Press made possible the novelist. The novelist\nfound himself adopted as guide, philosopher, and friend. The younger\ngeneration now-a-days acquires its general outlook from the novelists\nand playwrights, who exercise an almost sacerdotal influence. Personal\nguidance is offered by the psychoanalyst. He exercises the priestly\nfunctions of the confessional and of exorcizing demons; whilst Cou\u00e9\nand his disciples offer a new technique of prayer. The validity of\nthese practices is not here my subject, but the fact that people\nare getting what they want. Such new ways of meeting old demands\nare continually being found, and may not the Universities soon find\nthemselves in the position of the Church? Several things would make the\nsuggestion plausible.\n\nIn the first place, education is already being purveyed as a commercial\nproduct. Quite apart from the self-educators produced fortnightly\nby the Press, there are Mind-training Institutes and Correspondence\nColleges. Universities at the present time can afford to ignore this\ncompetition. They have, they think, the pull in traditional prestige,\nthe advantages of the tutorial system, the general atmosphere of\nculture, and they have, we trust, at present the most distinguished\nscholars. But traditional prestige is a slippery foundation for any\ninstitution now-a-days. The test that is being applied is that of\npractical efficiency. Already happy-go-lucky methods in University\nfinance are being examined by Royal Commissions and by financial\nexperts. The next thing will be that they will start to scrutinize\nthe educational methods being employed. Already, moreover, the newer\ninstitutions are being forced to mould themselves upon the model of\nan up-to-date business office. Soon they will adopt those well-proven\nadjuncts of commercial progress\u2015\u2015modern methods of advertisement, for\ninstance.\n\nWhen the printing press arose, priests, no doubt, preserved their\nself-assurance by reliance upon the peculiar efficiency of the\nspoken word. They clung to the sermon and scorned the weapon of the\npamphleteers. When comparing themselves with the Correspondence\nColleges, the Universities resort to a similar argument. One day,\nhowever, the Correspondence Colleges will realize the possibilities in\nwireless as an adjunct to their methods.\n\nWhen with the assistance of its influential board of directors some\nnational broadcasting company finally secures its charter, the\nfollowing situation will arise. Phenomenal salaries will attract\nthe most distinguished exponents of the various arts and sciences\nto the central broadcasting stations. District Colleges staffed by\nautomatic invigilators will call the roll of students at the various\nlectures. These will be delivered by a loud speaker synchronized with\na televisual cinema projecting the lecturer\u2019s blackboard and other\nillustrative material.\n\nThe economy effected by conducting classes of say half a million or\nequally easily ten million students will enable anyone to follow\ncourses by all the most distinguished exponents of his subject.\nEuropean students in psychology, for example, will attend say at 9 a.m.\nfor Professor Stout, followed at 10 by Dr Sigmund Freud, and at 11 by\nProfessor G. E. Moore. Nor need these distinguished men repeat their\nlectures until they have something new to say, for dictaphones will be\nincluded among the listeners-in, and another relay of undergraduates\nwill acquire their wisdom from the broadcast-phonograph.\n\nSuch a soulless business organization, it will be objected, could\nnever replace our present establishments of culture. But here, again,\nI feel the objection is of purely transitory force. Progressive\ndifferentiation which I have mentioned as an important aspect of\nevolution has produced the antithesis of commerce and cultured life.\nDifferentiation, however, is to a great extent counterbalanced by\nprocesses of integration; and such integration we can see in progress\nin the business world.\n\nThe commercial applications of art besides influencing the dividends of\nour railway companies must be exercising a cultural effect upon their\nboards of directors; and culture filters through in many ways. The\njustly renowned polish of the Oxford graduate is finding a lucrative\nfield of expression in modern salesmanship. An up-to-date salesman\nnow-a-days speaks considerably better English than his customer, and\nthe average waiter is better mannered than the proprietor of the\nh\u00f4tel. It is inconceivable that the employer will continue to be quite\nuninfluenced by his cultured and refined subordinates. Perhaps this\nis the secret of the growth of those Learned Societies the purport of\nwhich we understand is to supply that liberal education demanded now\nby busy business men. When the captains of industry have mastered this\nbusiness of being cultured and have seen its possibilities in practical\naffairs their own peculiar talents will be applied in ever wider\nspheres; of which education will probably be the first.\n\n\n\n\n                                   V\n\n\nDr Schiller is of the opinion[8] that the evolutionary impetus is\nspent, and biologically at least we have seen the end of change. I\nwonder. And supposing he were right? The process might begin again;\nthis time with the men of science at the helm.\n\n  [8] _Tantalus._\n\nThe vast and powerful machinery developed to meet the needs of\nScientific Management in industry, government, and education may\nmake it possible to initiate and control the operation of the\nnatural laws of change. Side by side with the direct control of\ncharacter, belief, and action, large-scale experiments in eugenics\nmay proceed. Such experiments would not demand the clumsy expedient\nof the Act of Parliament. The triple control will provide adequate\nmeans for eliminating the intractable factors in the situation.\nPerhaps the constitution of the United States of America provides the\nmost promising machinery at present for large-scale sociological\nexperiment. These States, moreover, are fortunate in the character of\ntheir population. But whether by education or by eugenic control man\nhimself will change. Physically, by a process of atrophy (at which Dr\nSchiller will not, I trust, demur), he may consist chiefly in a head\nfrom which will depend a mass of atrophied limbs. He will presumably be\nmore or less permanently mounted upon a compact automobile, travelling\nby road or by air. No doubt a submarine attachment will be available to\nfacilitate his morning bath.[9] But it is not with his appearance that\nwe are here concerned. What is the future of his mind?\n\n  [9] But on all questions relating to our mechanical future I must\n      refer the reader to Professor A. M. Low, to whose works _The\n      Future_ and _Wireless Possibilities_ I myself am chiefly\n      indebted in this respect.\n\nThere are interesting possibilities in the sphere of sense alone.\nSome of our present senses, such as taste or smell, may disappear\naltogether. More and more we seem to depend upon purely visual cues. On\nthe other hand, vision and hearing may be considerably augmented. Even\nthough they be supplemented by microphones and microscopes, we always\nstrive to see and hear a little more than the best of instruments\nallows. If, after all, the biological vitalists are right, so long\nas we are interested in the constitution of matter there is a motive\nfor further variation. But, as Professor Low points out, our \u00e6sthetic\nsusceptibilities will have to be modified on the way. When we first\nbegin to perceive the fauna in the cheese and the microbes on our\nwalls, and when, like the birds, we go into the country to listen to\nthe worms, we shall have to revise our values. Our poets, too, will\nfind new themes to sing.\n\nMemory, even more than sense, suggests many possibilities of\ndevelopment. By hypnotism, or by the natural working of the unconscious\nmind, it is said that we can recall even the earliest events of life.\nSoon, perhaps, this power will be under conscious control, and the\nautobiographers will have their millennium too. But, quite apart from\nthis, new methods of education and a little Scientific Management would\nenable us, even now, to do much more with our memories through the\npowers we already possess.\n\nThe developments of intellectual life are the most difficult to\nforesee. But there are a few clues which enable us to guess at their\npossible nature. What purely intellectual achievements have been\nmade in the past seem to depend upon the development of language and\nthe elaboration of symbolism convenient to thought. Philosophers and\nscientists have continually expressed dissatisfaction at the modes\nof expression at their disposal in a language primarily devised to\nexpress our emotional and practical demands. Scientists have invented\na technical terminology in their nouns. Mathematicians go somewhat\nfurther, and have invented more thorough-going systems of symbolism.\nPhilosophers have always found it necessary to invent peculiar\nmanners of speech, and now are seriously beginning to follow the\nmathematicians. It is possible that quite a new language will arise,\nprobably a variety of purely technical languages\u2015\u2015useful for different\npurposes of thought. The process of differentiation manifests itself\nhere as in other ways. Already people following different pursuits find\nit almost impossible to converse, at least with anything approaching\nmutual understanding. And this process of specialization which\neducation and increasing knowledge forces upon us points to another\nobstacle in the way of the Esperantists and other propagandists for\na universal language. By the time this language is adopted, we shall\nhave lost all common interests for the discussion of which it might\nhave been employed. Perhaps our newer universities will inaugurate\nprofessorships in small-talk to keep alive an obsolescent art and to\ncorrect this serious menace of specialism.\n\nMore rapid than changes in the intellectual life will be those of\ncharacter and of temperament. There are two significant facts in the\ntrend of man\u2019s emotional development, one of special and the other of\ngeneral interest.\n\nFirstly, there is the curious decay of cruelty and the increased desire\nto avoid inflicting pain. No one, surely, would deny an enormous\nchange in this respect even in recent centuries. And we are beginning\nto discover the lengths to which development may go. Even now it often\ncauses a moral man to attribute base motives to himself in doing a\nkindly act to spare his friend the subtle pain or sense of obligation\nwhich occurs in the feeling of gratitude. Modest forms of generosity\noften have this motive in their modesty.\n\nThere is not much further to go before we reach the social life of\nHenry James\u2019s novels\u2015\u2015where the principal characters have exquisite\nconsciences, where good souls are tortured by the regret that they had\nnot expressed their reproaches a shade or so less directly so as more\nto convey the impression that they had really said nothing at all.\n\nNow-a-days you are afraid to forgive your enemies, lest the pain of\nremorse you thrust upon them should exceed the discomfort inflicted by\na direct retaliation. The finer spirits of the age cannot live up to\ntheir own ideals because of the sense of inferiority it would impose\nupon their less advanced companions. Society in the thirtieth century\nwill assuredly be even more refined.\n\nThe second significant fact of the moral history of our age to some\nextent ameliorates the prospect. We are gradually growing out of our\nemotions. We are acquiring self-consciousness and becoming habitually\nintrospective, and, as the psychologists tell us, you cannot observe\nan emotion without decreasing its intensity.\n\nThis partly explains what is curious in what is called \u201cmodern love\u201d,\nas practised and expounded by our younger novelists. It is essentially\nintrospective. Every schoolboy knows what is going to happen when he\nfalls in love. He knows about the illusions arising from emotion. The\nundergraduate cannot make love extravagantly like the Elizabethan\npoets, or sentimentally like the Victorians. When he feels the passion\nrising, he informs the provoking cause of it, that he knows quite well\nthat, in spite of it, she is a perfectly ordinary little person with\nnothing very much to recommend her. They both agree that they are\nvictims of an obsolescent mechanism designed for biological purposes, a\nmechanism primarily intended for the brutes, but annoyingly persistent\nin its control over civilized man. They agree, however, to act the\nperformance through, because a rational way of making love is difficult\nto devise. They agree to make senseless and meaningless remarks. He is\nprepared to rave about her perfectly beautiful eyes whilst rationally\nconvinced that they show a distinct suspicion of squint. She in her\nturn will admire his manly form whilst fully conscious that he is\nrather undersized and remembering that he signally failed to get his\nBlue. The kind of objective attitude that we are being taught to adopt\ntowards criminals, which the psycho-analysts tell us to adopt towards\nthe libertine, sooner or later we shall have to adopt towards ourselves.\n\nIn any attempt to picture to ourselves the life of future man one of\nthe chief of the things which we have to take into account is the\nentirely remodelled constitution of society. There will be a small\nupper class\u2015\u2015very small because, as all the prophets agree, the\ndecrease of the birthrate in the upper strata will assume for sometime\nquite alarming proportions. It will be regenerated for a while by\nthe bolder, more adventurous, and more capable of the working-class,\nwho use their wits to escape from the situation into which they were\nborn. Later, of course, this escape will be facilitated by reliable\nmental, moral, and vocational tests. The working-classes proper will\nthen consist only of those less capable of administrative, organizing,\nand managemental functions. There will be relatively little unrest\nbecause the ruling classes will have learnt the wisdom of making the\nworkers comfortable and happy; and potential agitators by the system\nof vocational selection will find themselves more lucratively employed\nin voicing the opinions of the ruling classes at the broadcasting\nstations. Plato will have come into his own. His criticism of\ndemocracy will have become accepted and the philosopher kings\u2015\u2015with a\ndifference\u2015\u2015will have become established in the seats of power.\n\nWhilst the masses enjoy their innocent pleasures, the ruling caste will\nlive a life of its own. Judged by the present, one might expect it to\nbe a life of sport, gambling, and house-parties, and there may be a\ntransition-period of this kind. In this no doubt some curious forms\nof sport will be devised. If the theory is well founded which asserts\nthat our present modes of sport are debased survivals of ancient\noccupations, the craze of the fortieth century may be the fascinating\ngame of mining. It will be played in specially constructed coal-mines,\nfilled with ingenious traps, blind alleys, and water-hazards. Messrs\nPope and Bradley in those days will circularize their clients by\nprovocative letters pointing out that last year\u2019s mining suit is\nhopelessly out of date, or that the time has now come for replenishing\nthe aerial wardrobe for the forthcoming polar sports. Chemical\nwarfare, conducted with novel forms of laughing-gas, will be a popular\ninstitution at Christmas parties.\n\nVarious considerations combine, however, to suggest that sport is but a\ntransitory phenomenon in human life.\n\nFirstly, the applications of scientific method to its pursuit is\ntending to remove its distinctive character. And this tendency for\neconomic reasons is likely to prove irresistible. The old-fashioned\nsportsman will protest against the newer methods. He may refuse to\nbring to the golf course wind gauge and slide rule; he may refuse\nto attend to the lessons of motion study, but in consequence of his\nstubbornness he will find himself too ridiculously outclassed to appear\non the course at all. His will be the fate of the older militarists who\nprotest on similar grounds against chemical warfare.\n\nTo those who play the newer game, sport will become a rigorous\ndiscipline and a scientific pursuit.\n\nThe general public, moreover, will increasingly enjoy its sport by\nproxy. The televisual cinema, which will then be stereoscopic, will\nprovide a substitute for the football match; and the sporting spectacle\nwill naturally form only an incident in the variety show. Again, the\nsporting interest will be merged, this time in the interests of\ngeneral entertainment.\n\nAnother important change already far advanced which will radically\nalter the character of sporting life is man\u2019s recent discovery of his\nmind. The punch ball and gloves now hang limply on the wall whilst\nthe one time early riser lies comfortably in bed cherishing the\nformula by which he grows sturdier and more Spartan in every way.\nInstead of Sandow we have Pelman, and this will spread to the schools.\nEnterprising teachers graphically plot the progress of their pupils\nupon the wall. Small boys will exhibit their I.Q.s and scorn a display\nof biceps. If Alec Waugh continues to write about it, the change may\nreach the Public Schools. Again, it is the work of the printing press\nwhich is at last beginning to tell. Anagrams and intellectual puzzles\nof all kinds have existed for the few from ages immemorial, but in the\ncross-word puzzle the principle is finding a wider appeal.\n\nLastly, the final blow to sport and to our British system of thought\nbuilt up upon it will come from the industrial field. Industrial\npsychology will undermine it by eliminating its fundamental function.\nThe forms of sport with which we are most familiar arise chiefly\nas a reaction against sedentary and ill-planned occupations.\nScientifically organized labour of the future will exhibit more\nvariety and give fuller expression to the many-sidedness of man.\nExcessive specialization of the individual in his work has produced an\nartificial differentiation in the arrangement of his life, of which the\ndistinction of work and play is the most glaring example.\n\nWith the outgrowing of sport, or, more strictly, with the blending\nof work and play man will apply himself to tasks commensurate with\nhis powers. Dimly we begin to see what these tasks will be. The task\nof government, complex as it may be, will be less difficult in many\nrespects than it is to-day. The danger of revolution should be only\na remote contingency. The stability of a society ultimately depends\ninversely upon the prevalence of nepotism. A government of the\nefficient and the talented equipped with scientific knowledge would be\nimpregnable. It matters not that men are mostly irrational so long\nas the rational have the power to rule. The irrationality of the rest\nis subject to uniform law, which, understood, can be brought within\ncontrol. But the temptation to the ruler to hand on the reins of power\nto the inefficient with whom he has emotional ties of paternity or\nfriendship is almost irresistible. The difficulty, however, is not\ninsuperable. Some form of \u201cSocialism\u201d, which started all at equality\nand promoted to power according to ability, gauged quasi-mechanically\nby mental and vocational tests, would be a partial safeguard. Moreover,\nin a compact ruling class a kind of family moral tradition might\nemerge. This would be reinforced by the common-sense recognition of\nthe dangers of promoting the inefficient on a large scale over the\nheads of the competent. The obvious effect of such promotion is, in the\nlong run, revolution; and revolutions will probably be recurrent until\nthe lesson has been learnt.\n\n\n\n\n                                   VI\n\n\nAnd will these god-like beings with their infinite wealth and power,\nin their perfect rationality, be any happier or even morally better\ncreatures than ourselves?\n\nThe formula for happiness is a fairly simple one. Its relative\ncomponents form a vulgar fraction. The denominator is constituted\nby that towards which we aspire; the numerator is the number of our\nachievements. There is a law by which these two vary almost in unison.\nAny augmentation of achievement sends up proportionally the number\nof our desires, whilst great losses are followed by resignation. It\nis just for those fleeting moments in which the balance is disturbed\nthat we experience bliss or misery. But the moments are very fleeting,\nand the normal ratio is restored. Happiness is the carrot before the\ndonkey\u2019s nose. Therein lies the moral of Tantalus, so grievously\nmisinterpreted by Dr Schiller. Tantalus is the symbol of human\nprogress. The only danger is that under Scientific Management man may\nsee through the trick.\n\nAnd will he be better then than he is to-day? That, however, is a\nquestion for the moralists of the future to decide.\n\n\n                   *       *       *       *       *\n\n\n Transcriber\u2019s Notes:\n\n \u2015\u2015Text in italics is enclosed by underscores (_italics_).\n\n \u2015\u2015Punctuation and spelling inaccuracies were silently corrected.\n\n \u2015\u2015Archaic and variable spelling has been preserved.\n\n \u2015\u2015Variations in hyphenation and compound words have been preserved.","title":"Sibylla : $b or, The revival of prophecy","tradition":"philosophy-ethics","translated_text":null,"word_count":10923}